International Monetary Fund (IMF) Staff Completes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Morocco
Economic growth is accelerating thanks to strong domestic demand, amid a new investment cycle in many sectors.
Tax reforms have allowed the fiscal deficit in 2024 to be lower than expected while also funding spending measures. Going forward, saving part of the revenue windfall would help strengthen the fiscal buffers. The current monetary policy stance is appropriate and should remain data dependent.
Structural reforms should focus on strengthening job creation, including by better targeting active labor market polices, consolidating programs to support small and medium firms, and removing regulatory distortions that hinder firms' growth.
An International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff team led by Roberto Cardarelli conducted discussions with the Moroccan authorities in Rabat on the 2025 Article IV Consultation from January 27 to February 7. At the conclusion of the visit, Mr. Cardarelli issued the following statement:
'Economic activity is expected to have grown by 3.2 percent in 2024 and to accelerate to 3.9 percent in 2025, as agricultural output rebounds after the recent droughts and the nonagricultural sector continues to expand at a robust pace amid strong domestic demand. Higher growth is expected to increase the current account deficit towards its estimated medium-term norm of around 3 percent, while inflation is expected to stabilize at around 2 percent. The risks to the outlook are broadly balanced, with significant uncertainty regarding the economic impact of geopolitical tensions and changing climate conditions.
'With inflation expectations anchored around 2 percent and little signs of demand pressures, the current broadly neutral monetary policy stance is appropriate, and staff agrees with Bank Al-Maghrib that future changes of policy rates should remain data dependent. With inflation back to around 2 percent, Bank Al-Maghrib should continue its preparation to adopt an inflation-targeting framework.'
'Recent reforms to the tax system and tax administration have helped expand the tax base while lowering the tax burden. As a result, tax revenues in 2024 have been greater than expected. With only a small part of the additional tax revenues being saved, the central government's deficit for the year was 4.1 percent of GDP compared to the 4.3 announced in the 2024 Budget. While the 2025 Budget confirms the gradual pace of fiscal adjustment projected last year, higher-than-expected revenues should be used to accelerate the pace of debt reduction to levels closer to pre-pandemic. In addition, continuing to finance structural reforms may require further efforts to expand the tax base and rationalize spending, including by reducing transfers to state-owned enterprises as part of the ongoing reform of the sector and expanding the use of the Unified Social Registry to all social programs.
'Staff welcomes the ongoing reform of the Organic Budget Law that should introduce a new fiscal rule based on a medium-term debt anchor. Good progress has been made in the Medium-Term fiscal framework to include an assessment of the risk from climate change. Staff encourages the authorities to build on this progress by adding more information on the impact of new policy measures and a quantification of the risks from the increased reliance on public-private partnership (PPP) projects.
'Stronger job creation requires a novel approach to active labor market policies, focusing on labor displaced from the agricultural sector due to the sequence of droughts. A special focus should be placed on encouraging the growth of small and medium size enterprises (SME) and favoring their integration into sectoral value chains. Staff welcomes the progress in the operationalization of the Mohammed VI Investment Fund that should help SMEs access equity financing. Measures that may encourage the development of a more buoyant private sector include strengthening the support for SMEs under the new Charter of Investment, strengthening regional investment centers so they can better help SMEs access the financial and technical resources needed for their growth, and reviewing the labor code, tax system, and regulatory and governance frameworks so as remove the distortion that incentivize firms to remain small or informal. It will also be necessary that the ongoing SOE reform effectively pursues market neutrality between public and private sector firms.
'The IMF team held discussions with senior officials of the government of Morocco, Bank Al-Maghrib, and representatives of the public and private sectors. The team thanks the Moroccan authorities and other stakeholders for their hospitality and candid and productive discussions.'
Distributed by APO Group on behalf of International Monetary Fund (IMF).
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