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Chicago White Sox first-rounder Billy Carlson is used to playing in the spotlight

Chicago White Sox first-rounder Billy Carlson is used to playing in the spotlight

New York Times13-07-2025
Over the last two years, few high school baseball programs have garnered more attention than the Corona (Calif.) Panthers. California state champions in 2024, the Panthers came into this season with a chance to make history as the first high school program to have more than two players selected in the first round.
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At the center of all of that success was shortstop Billy Carlson, a local kid who not only led the Panthers on the field but also recruited several of his teammates into the program. Now, he'll be working to bring similar success to the Chicago White Sox as their first-round pick.
Coming off that state title in 2024, the Panthers finished the 2025 regular season ranked first in the state but lost in a CIF Southern California semi-final upset to St. John Bosco. It was a disappointing ending to Carlson's Corona career, but overall it was a dream four years for him and the program, which he helped bring to prominence.
A Corona native who spent all four of his high school years at the school, Carlson became a recruiter for the program, helping to convince Seth Hernandez — the consensus top high school pitcher in this year's draft and the No. 6 selection — to transfer to Corona for his final two years at the school. Two other 2025 draft prospects, Brady Ebel and Ethin Bingaman, also transferred into the program. With several more high-profile prospects in the pipeline, the Corona program should continue to be in the national conversation even after this season.
'It was a lot of attention but it was good for the city of Corona and for the high school,' Carlson said at the MLB Draft Combine in June. 'Hopefully Corona has a lot of good years coming ahead.'
Carlson came into the season as one of the top high school shortstop prospects in the class. Scouts kept a close eye on him all season, but he had the benefit of not being the only player on his team that scouts were coming out to see.
'It's been cool to lean on them if it gets sometimes overwhelming, because it can be,' he said. 'Every single practice, there's at least one scout there with eyes on you. So there's never not eyes on you. I think it's helpful to have four other guys going through it with you. I could see how it can get really overwhelming if it's just you by yourself, kind of going through that.'
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That said, Carlson and his Corona teammates used the attention as way to keep themselves sharp throughout the season. He lived up to the all of the preseason expectations, hitting .365 with six homers and 34 RBIs in 31 games as a senior.
'We kind of enjoyed the attention. We kind of thrived off of it,' he said. 'If anything, it helped us because you're always playing with something on the line.'
Like many star high school shortstops, Carlson was a two-way player, using his plus arm strength on the mound as well as from the six-hole. He showed major-league potential as a pitcher, hitting 97 mph with his fastball, but is adamant that his future is on the dirt.
Offensively, Carlson hit for average and got on base at an above-average clip his last two seasons at Corona, and he showed enough in-game power that he projects 'to get to 20-plus homers if he can shorten up his swing enough to make consistent contact,' according to The Athletic's MLB Draft expert Keith Law.
On Law's final top 100 draft prospect Big Board, Carlson ranked 11th. Among high school position players, he ranked fourth. Carlson has a college commitment to Tennessee, but he's not likely to get to Rocky Top.
'I think (professional baseball) is the next big step in my career,' he said.
Whether it's in professional baseball or at Tennessee, Carlson is excited to take advantage of the training and coaching resources at those advanced levels. Though the 6-foot-1 Carlson spends a lot of time off the field working on his conditioning, he isn't looking to break any lifting records at the weight rack.
'If having big legs was the key to hitting bombs, I'd probably be last in line for that,' Carlson joked.
His work in the weight room is more intentional, focused on core strength and flexibility.
'I like to tell teams this, that I'm like a greyhound dog. I'm not really like a pit bull so training like a pit bull isn't too smart for me. I think that could ruin what makes me good,' he said.
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That core strength and flexibility has helped him become a plus defender at shortstop, so advanced that he had a stranglehold on the position at Corona even with Ebel — another top shortstop prospect — on the Panthers' roster. Law called Carlson 'a wizard on defense, with great instincts, range in both directions, and excellent hands, along with at least a 70 arm (on the 20-80 scouting scale).'
'I feel like if you are doing good training, it's going to show up on the field,' Carlson said.
(Phot: Tracy Proffitt / Four Seam Images via Associated Press)
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Tucker (2021) • Grayson Allen (2021) • Kevin Porter Jr. (2025) BB: George Hill (2018) • Nikola Mirotić (2019) • Patrick Beverley (2024) K: Eric Bledsoe (2017) • Tyler Zeller (2018) • Serge Ibaka (2022) • Jae Crowder (2023) • Damian Lillard (2023) • Kyle Kuzma (2025) • Pat Connaughton (2025) Horst traded for Jrue Holiday, an All-Star and All-Defensive talent who was the final piece to Milwaukee's championship puzzle in 2021. That makes the decision a home run. Other than that, the trade market has been an unfriendly place for Horst, whose singles are squibs. Giannis Antetokounmpo and the rest of the league have taken notice of what has happened to the Bucks as injuries and missteps have taken a toll. 18. Jeff Weltman, Orlando Magic (2017-) Trades: .500 OBP • .667 SLG • 1.167 OPS 3B: Nikola Vucevic (2021) 1B: Evan Fournier (2021) BB: Desmond Bane (2025) K: Timofey Mozgov (2018) • Markelle Fultz (2019) • Aaron Gordon (2021) Everything hinges on Weltman's decision this summer to trade Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cole Anthony and the rights to four first-round draft picks to the Memphis Grizzlies in exchange for Desmond Bane. If Bane is the key to unlocking the Magic as a contender, he is an extra-base hit, but it is too early to tell now. 17. Nico Harrison, Dallas Mavericks (2021-) Trades: .500 OBP • 714 SLG • 1.214 OPS 3B: Kyrie Irving (2023) 1B: Christian Wood (2022) • P.J. Washington (2024) BB: Tim Hardaway Jr. (2024) K: Josh Richardson (2021) • Kristaps Porziņģis (2022) • Luka Dončić (2025) • Caleb Martin (2025) The Luka Dončić trade counts for only one strikeout. 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Rob Pelinka, Los Angeles Lakers (2019-) Trades: .364 OBP • .900 SLG • 1.264 OPS HR: Anthony Davis (2019) • Luka Dončić (2025) 1B: Rui Hachimura (2023) BB: Patrick Beverley (2022) K: Dennis Schröder (2020) • JaVale McGee (2020) • Russell Westbrook (2021) • Marc Gasol (2021) • Rajon Rondo (2022) • D'Angelo Russell (2023) • Dorian Finney-Smith (2025) What power. Pelinka has made a pair of home-run decisions, trading a ton of draft capital for Anthony Davis, winning the 2020 championship, and then turning Davis into Dončić this past February. It is time now for him to start raking on some of those smaller decisions, as he attempts to build around Dončić. 14. Sean Marks, Brooklyn Nets (2016-) Trades: .600 OBP • .682 SLG • 1.282 OPS 2B: D'Angelo Russell (2017) • Kevin Durant (2023) • Mikal Bridges (2024) 1B: Thaddeus Young (2016) • Bojan Bogdanovic (2017) • DeMarre Carroll (2017) • Kenneth Faried (2018) • Jared Dudley (2018) • Greg Monroe (2019) • Bruce Brown (2019) • Landry Shamet (2021) • Royce O'Neale (2024) BB: DeMarre Carroll (2019) • Dennis Schröder (2024) • Terance Mann (2025) K: Allen Crabbe (2017) • Dwight Howard (2018) • Jeremy Lin (2018) • Taurean Prince (2019) • James Harden (2021) • DeAndre Jordan (2021) • James Harden (2022) • Royce O'Neale (2022) • Kyrie Irving (2023) • Joe Harris (2023) Marks has been at the helm of Brooklyn's front office for nearly a decade, and that has yielded a single playoff series victory. In between has been a wild ride, as he assembled a team worthy of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving and subject to their whims. He is currently dealing with the aftermath, putting a ton of recent stock into the draft, and that should be the goal again next season. He sure could use a home run. (This is where we should note that most sign-and-trade deals are listed as free-agent signings, not trades. So, while Durant was technically traded to the Nets, it was more of a free-agency signing than anything.) 13. Zach Kleiman, Memphis Grizzlies (2019-) Trades: .682 OBP • .647 SLG • 1.329 OPS 2B: Desmond Bane (2025) 1B: Mike Conley (2019) • Andre Iguodala (2019) • De'Anthony Melton (2019) • Marc Gasol (2021) • Kris Dunn (2021) • Steven Adams (2021) • Isaiah Todd (2023) • Xavier Tillman (2024) • David Roddy (2024) BB: Chandler Parsons (2019) • Eric Bledsoe (2021) • Luke Kennard (2023) • Steven Adams (2024) • James Huff (2025) K: Dwight Howard (2019) • Justise Winslow (2020) • Grayson Allen (2021) • De'Anthony Melton (2022) • Marcus Smart (2023) • Ziaire Williams (2024) • Marcus Smart (2025) Kleiman is a smart general manager who does just about everything well. We keep waiting on him to take a big swing, reconfiguring his roster as a more serious title contender, but instead he went the opposite way — dealing Desmond Bane for a cache of draft picks, better positioning himself for that big swing. 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Michael Winger, Washington Wizards (2023-) Trades: .800 OBP • .667 SLG • 1.467 OPS 1B: Bradley Beal (2023) • Kyle Kuzma (2025) • Marcus Smart (2025) • Jordan Poole (2025) BB: Marvin Bagley (2024) • Daniel Gafford (2024) • Deni Avdija (2024) • Reggie Jackson (2025) K: Kristaps Porziņģis (2023) • Chris Paul (2023) Winger's performance in a short time will wow you when you see the overall rankings, as he has dug the Wizards from a hole that included Bradley Beal's contract (in the aftermath of John Wall's contract). This was a team going nowhere north of the second round of the playoffs, and he has turned it into a team reliant on nine recent first-round draft picks, some of whom he has acquired via trade. Some of them have a chance to be good, and more of them are coming, but something is brewing in Washington. 9. Leon Rose, New York Knicks (2020-) Trades: .643 OBP • .846 SLG • 1.489 OPS 3B: Karl-Anthony Towns (2024) 2B: OG Anunoby (2023) 1B: Ed Davis (2020) • Derrick Rose (2021) • Austin Rivers (2021) • Ousmane Dieng (2022) • Josh Hart (2023) • Mikal Bridges (2024) BB: Cam Reddish (2022) K: Evan Fournier (2021) • Jalen Duren (2022) • Alec Burks (2022) • Obi Toppin (2023) • Bojan Bogdanovic (2023) Leon Rose may never speak to the media, but he has quietly done a brilliant job in New York, turning the Knicks from relatively nothing into an Eastern Conference finalist. He did that with coach Tom Thibodeau at the helm, and now Rose is betting on Mike Brown. That is as hefty of a decision as any he has made, and that includes the acquisitions of Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, Josh Hart and Mikal Bridges. Bravo. 8. Koby Altman, Cleveland Cavaliers (2017-) Trades: .737 OPS • .875 SLG • 1.612 OPS 3B: Donovan Mitchell (2022) 2B: Jarrett Allen (2021) 1B: Jordan Clarkson (2018) • George Hill (2018) • Kyle Korver (2018) • George Hill (2018) • Rodney Hood (2019) • Alec Burks (2019) • JaVale McGee (2020) • Isaiah Hartenstein (2021) • Lonzo Ball (2025) BB: Jordan Clarkson (2019) • Rajon Rondo (2022) • De'Andre Hunter (2025) K: Kyrie Irving (2017) • Kevin Porter Jr. (2019) • Andre Drummond (2020) • Ricky Rubio (2021) • Caris LeVert (2022) Altman is hitting consistently well on most every decision, save for a Kyrie Irving deal over which he held little power. The acquisition of Donovan Mitchell turned what was a 44-win play-in tournament loser into a 64-win juggernaut (that also lost short of expectations in the postseason). Believe in Mitchell, though, and believe in Cleveland's core, which includes Jarrett Allen, as rightful favorites in a shallow conference. 7. Sam Presti, Oklahoma City Thunder (2007-) Trades: .756 OBP • .906 SLG • 1.662 OPS HR: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2019) 3B: Chris Paul (2019) 2B: Kurt Thomas (2007) • Kendrick Perkins (2011) • Victor Oladipo (2016) 1B: Ray Allen (2007) • Thabo Sefolosha (2009) • Daequan Cook (2010) • Enes Kanter (2015) • Jerami Grant (2016) • Dennis Schröder (2018) • Danny Green (2020) • Kelly Oubre Jr. (2020) • Trevor Ariza (2020) • Al Horford (2020) • George Hill (2021) • Derrick Favors (2021) • Mike Muscala (2023) • Victor Oladipo (2023) • Kevin Porter Jr. (2023) • Alex Caruso (2024) BB: Kurt Thomas (2008) • Delonte West (2008) • Chucky Atkins (2009) • Eric Maynor (2009) • Nazr Mohammed (2011) • Ryan Gomes (2014) • Taj Gibson (2017) • Jerami Grant (2019) • Trevor Ariza (2021) • Al Horford (2021) • JaMychal Green (2022) • KZ Okpala (2022) • Dario Saric (2023) K: Lazar Hayward (2011) • James Harden (2012) • Dion Waiters (2015) • Jeremy Lamb (2015) • Randy Foye (2016) • Joffrey Lauvergne (2016) • Carmelo Anthony (2017) • Chris Paul (2020) • Steven Adams (2020) • Derrick Favors (2022) • Gordon Hayward (2023) We are getting into the heavy hitters. Sam Presti is, by most accounts, the smartest shot-caller in the league, and he has twice built young budding dynasties, one of which ultimately failed to win a title and another that has only just begun after winning one. The acquisition of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was a grand slam, if only we could account for that somehow. Maybe someday we will add RBI to the System. Presti is also an example of how every general manager, even the brightest one, has to take his lumps. Strikeouts are bound to happen. James Harden was a tough one to swallow. Ask Presti about any one of those whiffs, and he will surely explain it in better detail than I can, but take, for example, Derrick Favors. In 2021, Presti traded a second-round pick to the Utah Jazz for Favors and a first-round draft pick — a single of a deal, if the protected selection the Jazz owe to them ever conveys. Presti did that trade knowing full well he would have to unload Favors' contract in the future, which he did in a mess of a deal. It is all very explainable if you are willing to dive into the detail, but that does not mean that even the best of general managers do not whiff on occasion over the course of an 18-year career. And he's still, what, about my age? I can't imagine what he thinks of The Danny Ainge System, but he's surely too busy building championship teams to care where he ranks on some silly Sabermetrics view of his profession. 6. Lawrence Frank, Los Angeles Clippers (2017-) Trades: .842 OBP • .923 SLG • 1.765 OPS 2B: Ivica Zubac (2019) • Norman Powell (2022) 1B: Blake Griffin (2018) • Tobias Harris (2019) • Mo Harkless (2019) • Paul George (2019) • Luke Kennard (2020) • Eric Gordon (2023) • Kris Dunn (2024) • Bogdan Bogdanović (2025) BB: JaMychal Green (2019) • Eric Bledsoe (2021) • Serge Ibaka (2022) • Mason Plumlee (2023) • James Harden (2023) • John Collins (2025) K: Marcus Morris (2020) • Rajon Rondo (2021) • Bones Hyland (2023) It is not Lawrence Frank's fault that Paul George and Kawhi Leonard could never stay healthy. It might be his fault that they traded Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the deal for George, but who would not have taken that swing when the return also included Leonard? We deemed what could have been a homer a single, because, man, losing SGA is tough, but really only in retrospect. Nobody knew SGA would be this good. Otherwise, Frank has built what might quietly be one of the Western Conference's best teams. He has hit a bunch of singles, including recent additions Kris Dunn and Bogdan Bogdanović, and this summer's acquisition of John Collins could be another one soon enough. He is a key to their success this season. And let me explain why the James Harden trade is considered a walk at this point: Frank traded the rights to his first-round draft picks in 2027, 2028 and 2029 for Harden, who has not won a playoff series in two seasons in L.A. Did I mention the Clippers just gave Harden a two-year, $81.5 million extension? He is, ultimately, who this era of Clippers basketball hinges on, and that is a walk until proven otherwise. 5. Brian Wright, San Antonio Spurs (2019-) Trades: .818 OBP • 1.000 SLG • 1.818 OPS 2B: Dejounte Murray (2022) • De'Aaron Fox (2025) 1B: Doug McDermott (2021) • Thaddeus Young (2022) • Harrison Barnes (2024) BB: Devonte' Graham (2023) • Reggie Bullock (2023) • Jakob Poeltl (2023) • Rob Dillingham (2024) K: DeMar DeRozan (2021) • Derrick White (2022) Brian Wright just does smart things. He has worked for the Spurs since 2016 and officially took over as GM from R.C. Buford in 2019. San Antonio at that time was in its post-Kawhi era. He has lucked into some incredible draft positions, to be sure, but he has also done well for himself on the trade market, flipping Dejounte Murray for a collection of picks from Atlanta in 2022 and acquiring De'Aaron Fox in February. Wright might have been able to get more for DeMar DeRozan and Derrick White in retrospect, but even those whiffs are not egregious. He got value for both, including one first-round pick the Spurs used in the trade for Fox and a potential swap with the Boston Celtics in 2028. This is not an organization that makes poor decisions. Wright is the best GM no one talks about, and San Antonio must like it that way. 4. Pat Riley, Miami Heat (1995-) Trades: .679 OBP • 1.211 SLG • 1.890 OPS HR: Alonzo Mourning (1995) • Shaquille O'Neal (2004) 3B: Tim Hardaway (1996) • Goran Dragic (2015) 2B: Eddie Jones (2000) • Antoine Walker (2005) • Norman Powell (2025) 1B: Jamal Mashburn (1997) • Jermaine O'Neal (2009) • Jae Crowder (2020) BB: Brian Grant (2000) • Cedric Ceballos (2000) • Shawn Marion (2007) • Dwyane Wade (2018) • Trevor Ariza (2021) • Nemanja Bjelica (2021) • Victor Oladipo (2021) • Kyle Lowry (2021) • KZ Okpala (2022) K: Brent Barry (1998) • Ricky Davis (2001) • Mark Blount (2007) • Eric Bledsoe (2010) • Toney Douglas (2014) • Brian Roberts (2016) • Ryan Anderson (2019) • Terry Rozier (2024) • Jimmy Butler (2025) Riley has built four separate contenders in Miami, and that means operating efficiently in every market. We will get to how he constructed the back-to-back champion Heatles through free agency in the early 2010s, but he built the first of his title teams by way of a trade for Shaquille O'Neal in 2004. Riley paired him with a draft pick, Dwyane Wade, who was instrumental in all three of Riley's championships in Miami. Before that, Riley acquired via trade both Alonzo Mourning and Tim Hardaway. Together they peaked as a 61-win team in the 1997 Eastern Conference finals, only to lose to Michael Jordan's Chicago Bulls. There have not been a ton of extra-base trades ever since the acquisition of O'Neal, but this summer's addition of Norman Powell did remove some of the sting of losing Jimmy Butler for relatively little value in return. 3. Danny Ainge, Utah Jazz (2021-) Trades: .787 OBP • 1.125 SLG • 1.912 HR: Kevin Garnett (2007) • Kevin Garnett (2013) 3B: Ray Allen (2007) • Isaiah Thomas (2015) 2B: Gary Payton (2004) • Markelle Fultz (2017) • Rudy Gobert (2022) • Donovan Mitchell (2022) 1B: Chucky Atkins (2004) • Jiří Welsch (2005) • Wally Szczerbiak (2006) • Nate Robinson (2010) • Keyon Dooling (2011) • Brandon Bass (2011) • Courtney Lee (2012) • Doc Rivers (2013) • Tyler Zeller (2014) • Dwight Powell (2014) • Rajon Rondo (2014) • Marcus Morris (2017) • Royce O'Neale (2022) • Kelly Olynyk (2024) BB: Antoine Walker (2003) • Ricky Davis (2003) • Antoine Walker (2005)Kendrick Perkins (2011) • Jordan Crawford (2013) • Jordan Crawford (2014) • Jeff Green (2015) • David Lee (2015) • Kyrie Irving (2017) • Daniel Theis (2021) • Joe Ingles (2022) • Nickeil Alexander-Walker (2023) • John Collins (2023) • Simone Fontecchio (2024) • Liam McNeeley (2025) K: Jumaine Jones (2003) • Antoine Walker (2005) • Sebastian Telfair (2006) • Jerryd Bayless (2014) • Aron Baynes (2020) • Evan Fournier (2021) • Bojan Bogdanovic (2022) • Kris Dunn (2024) • Jusuf Nurkic (2025) • John Collins (2025) (Ainge served as general manager of the Boston Celtics from 2003-2021.) It should come as no surprise that Danny Ainge — the man for whom this System is named — scores highly in every aspect of being an NBA executive. He is, without a doubt, one of the best in the business. Ainge's experience with Kevin Garnett illustrates his bravado. He went all in on trading for Garnett and Ray Allen in 2007, instantly forming a championship roster around Paul Pierce. Once Boston had squeezed every ounce of value from Garnett, Ainge heartlessly traded both KG and Pierce, acquiring the draft picks that became Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown — the foundation of yet another title team. In between, he landed Isaiah Thomas, who for two-plus seasons served as a bridge between title contenders, even leading the Celtics to another Eastern Conference finals appearance in 2017. Ainge has had some swings and misses of late for the Jazz, but his trades of Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell returned Lauri Markkanen, a cache of draft picks and more young talent that has presumably set up Utah for a bright future. Much of that depends on Ainge's draft successes, which we will get to. 2. Brad Stevens, Boston Celtics (2021-) Trades: OBP: .800 • SLG: 1.286 • OPS: 2.086 3B: Derrick White (2022) 2B: Al Horford (2021) • Kristaps Porziņģis (2023) • Jrue Holiday (2023) BB: Josh Richardson (2021) • Juan Hernangomez (2021) • Bol Bol (2022) • Daniel Theis (2022) • Malcolm Brogdon (2022) • Grant Williams (2023) • Xavier Tillman (2024) • Anfernee Simons (2025) K: Mike Muscala (2023) • Jaden Springer (2024) • Kristaps Porziņģis (2025) Stevens has not been on the job for long, but he has slugged only extra-base hits, acquiring Al Horford, Derrick White, Kristaps Porziņģis and Jrue Holiday — all key components to Boston's 2024 title team. What is interesting for Stevens: He had to take his licks this summer in order to duck the second apron. The Celtics faced an extraordinary luxury tax bill if they did not dump the salaries of both Holiday and Porziņģis. I thought Stevens did well to land Anfernee Simons, a 26-year-old 20-point scorer, in exchange for the 35-year-old Holiday. We'll call that a walk until we are proven otherwise. As for Porziņģis, Stevens knew he was going to take a bath on that one, turning him into RJ Luis Jr. in a matter of two transactions. The track record here is reason to believe in Boston's process, which is obvious now: Bridge this gap year, as Tatum recovers from Achilles surgery, in order to reconfigure the roster again for contention in 2027. 1. Kevin Pritchard, Indiana Pacers (2017-) Trades: .900 OBP • 1.357 SLG • 2.257 OPS HR: Tyrese Haliburton (2022) 3B: Victor Oladipo (2017) • Pascal Siakam (2024) 1B: Rudy Fernandez (2007) • Cory Joseph (2017) • T.J. Warren (2019) • Aaron Holiday (2021) • Caris LeVert (2022) • Aaron Nesmith (2022) • George Hill (2023) • Obi Toppin (2023) • Thomas Bryant (2024) BB: Marcus Camby (2010) • Victor Oladipo (2021) • Jalen Smith (2022) • Chris Duarte (2023) • Buddy Hield (2024) • James Huff (2025) K: Zach Randolph (2007) • Isaiah Todd (2021) (Pritchard served as general manager of the Portland Trail Blazers from 2007-2010.) In more than a decade as a lead shot-caller for NBA organizations, Pritchard has whiffed only twice on the trade market. Otherwise, he has regularly reached base, which is good reason not to trade with him. The Sacramento Kings learned that the hard way, dealing Tyrese Haliburton in exchange for Domantas Sabonis in 2022. Sabonis is a fine player, an All-Star even, but as we learned this past season, Haliburton is a transformative figure, raising the collective level of a team Pritchard has steadily built piece by piece. Pritchard landing at No. 1 on this list is a nice reminder that we are doing something right around here. His Pacers reached the NBA Finals on the backs of Haliburton, Pascal Siakam and a bounty of depth, and you do not luck into a roster like that. It takes making smart decisions over and over until they pay off.

Fantasy Football: Plenty of elite wide receivers among riskiest players to gamble on in drafts
Fantasy Football: Plenty of elite wide receivers among riskiest players to gamble on in drafts

Yahoo

time2 hours ago

  • Yahoo

Fantasy Football: Plenty of elite wide receivers among riskiest players to gamble on in drafts

Some players in fantasy football come with baked-in risk because they are unproven or buried on the depth chart. That's not what this list is. These are players already being drafted high, players you want to believe in and players who absolutely have the talent to deliver in 2025. Each of them has a path to a monster season that could swing a league. Each also carries a very real chance of burning you at their draft cost. [Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2025 NFL season] This isn't about finding sleepers. This is a discussion about the big-ticket bets that could make you look like the smartest person in the room or have you wondering why you ever pushed your chips in. Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins ECR has Hill coming off the board at WR15. When he's on, there's almost nobody better in the NFL. But last season was his worst fantasy finish since his rookie year, WR29 in PPR at 12.8 points per game. He posted 81 receptions for 959 yards and six touchdowns. The bigger issue is everything that happened at the end of the season. He didn't want to play late, dropped passes, publicly criticized QB Tua Tagovailoa and head coach Mike McDaniel and changed his profile picture to Antonio Brown leaving the field in Tampa. It stirred up enough noise that he had to apologize to try to mend relationships. Now trade rumors are starting to circulate. The ceiling is a top-five WR if he is locked in. The floor is a weekly headache that tanks your roster. It was just a few years ago that he was chasing 2,000 yards and finishing as the WR2 with 23.5 points per game, and I still believe there is some of that left in the tank. Make no mistake, you are gambling every time you click "Draft" on Tyreek in 2025. Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams Nacua only played 11 games last year but still finished as the WR2 in points per game at 18.8. He's going as the WR5 in drafts behind Malik Nabers, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb and Ja'Marr Chase, which means you are paying a premium. The problem is the uncertainty in Los Angeles. Matthew Stafford has been dealing with a back injury all offseason. He tried to throw on Saturday, was supposed to practice Monday, but soreness shut him down. That is a major red flag for a 37-year-old QB with a long injury history. The Rams also added Davante Adams, who had 25 red-zone targets in 2024, which ranked third in the NFL, and 21 deep targets. Puka, by comparison, had just 13 red-zone looks, which ranked 28th, and nine deep targets, which ranked 70th. Even adjusting for missed time, Adams is a true alpha who could soak up the highest value opportunities. If Stafford plays all year, Nacua can return on that WR5 price. But the combination of Stafford's back, Adams' presence and Puka's lack of touchdown upside makes this a risky bet. Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears Everyone is excited for Williams in 2025 and for good reason. Ben Johnson, one of the brightest offensive minds in the game, is now in Chicago. He turned Jared Goff into a top-seven QB in points per game at 19.8 in Detroit and helped him to the best fantasy finish of his career. Williams is a far better runner than Goff and steps into an offense with legit weapons. His ECR is QB14 ahead of Drake Maye and Goff. The tools are there. The legs are there. The scheme could elevate him into the top 10. But reports out of camp have been inconsistent, with flashes of brilliance mixed with head-scratching moments. He also tied David Carr for most sacks by a rookie last year. The Bears upgraded the offensive line but if protection breaks down, that sack total could climb. If you draft Williams as your QB1, you are betting big on him hitting early. If he struggles out of the gate, you could be scrambling for answers in September. The upside is real but so is the risk. Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers Evans is a walking 1,000-yard season. Last year in just 14 games, he caught 74 passes for 1,000 yards and 11 touchdowns, finishing as WR10 in points per game at 17.2. Over the last five years, he has scored 11 or more touchdowns in four seasons. That touchdown upside is his calling card. Here's the problem. The receptions and yards have been slowly trending down and the chronic hamstring issues are not going away. Tampa Bay invested high draft capital in WR Emeka Egbuka, who profiles as a Chris Godwin replacement, and Jalen McMillan flashed upside as a rookie. Godwin himself might be sidelined early which could push more attention onto Evans from opposing defenses. He's being drafted as WR17 ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr., DK Metcalf and others. At cost, you are paying for top-15 production in a body that has been through over a decade of NFL hits. If Evans stays healthy, he is a red-zone cheat code. If the hamstring flares up, that investment can go south fast. Final Word Every one of these players could be the reason you hoist your league trophy or the reason you are staring at the waiver wire in Week 5. Hill could be WR1 or a locker room nightmare. Nacua could lead the league in receptions or watch Adams take the highest value looks. Williams could break into the QB elite or leave you chasing streamers. Evans could be a touchdown machine or another aging star who finally slows down. You can't play scared in fantasy football. Just make sure that when you roll the dice, you are ready to live with the outcome.

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