End of Xi Jinping's regime: How aging 'ousted' rival Hu Jintao may be staging a silent coup against China's mightiest leader?
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A leader looks tired and alone
Zhang Youxia and the shadow elders
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Wang Yang emerges as successor
Hu Jintao's symbolic exit still matters
Discontent at home, trouble abroad
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Between late May and early June, Chinese President Xi Jinping simply disappeared. No parades. No spotlights. No front pages in People's Daily that once displayed him daily. Instead, other senior Communist Party leaders hosted visiting dignitaries in Beijing's grand halls.According to CNN-News18, top intelligence officials say, 'Xi Jinping's absence is not unusual, and China has a history of sidelining prominent leaders.' The method is familiar — big names stay on paper, power moves quietly elsewhere.When Xi reappeared in early June, it was not the spectacle the world expected. He sat down with Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko, but the setting was unusually small. Gone was the red-carpet flourish. 'Xi appeared tired, distracted, and generally unwell at a meeting with the Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in early June,' noted the Belarusian presidential press service.Even stranger, Xi's personal security detail has been halved. His father's grand mausoleum has lost its official status. And after a recent call with Donald Trump, Chinese state TV did something unheard of — it referred to Xi without any title. Later they patched it up, but the slip revealed cracks.While Xi's health and image fade, power appears to shift. General Zhang Youxia , who helped Xi secure an historic third term, is now rumoured to be calling the shots in the People's Liberation Army. But he fell out with Xi soon after.One source said: 'Currently, real power lies with General Zhang Youxia, the First Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), who is backed by CCP seniors from the Hu Jintao faction.'Dozens of generals loyal to Xi have vanished or been replaced. Rumours swirl about secret purges. 'The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has previously done this with three notable leaders, reducing their operational authority to mere ceremonial roles,' top intelligence officials told CNN-News18.Whispers of a new face have also emerged. Wang Yang, who once served as a respected technocrat, is now spoken of as Xi's likely replacement. Reports claim, 'Wang Yang, recently appointed to lead the Chinese Communist Party, has been spoken of as a successor to Xi Jinping.'Once lifted by Deng Xiaoping from obscurity, Wang represents reform. He is seen as calm, pro-market and less confrontational. Intelligence insiders told CNN-News18, 'Wang Yang is being groomed as a reform-oriented future leader and technocrat.'Back in 2022, the world watched as Xi's predecessor Hu Jintao was guided off the stage at the Party Congress in full view of cameras. China's Xinhua agency said Mr Hu felt unwell. But Hu looked reluctant. BBC's Stephen McDonell noted, 'Mr Hu, 79, appeared reluctant to move.' He even reached for Xi's notes before the sitting President brushed him off.What many saw then as a power play now takes on new meaning. The silent exit of Hu — once a symbol of collective leadership — marked Xi's total grip. Or so it seemed.China's economic engine is spluttering. Youth unemployment is stuck at 15 per cent. Real estate sits stagnant. Semiconductor plans have collapsed. National debt has ballooned to over $50 trillion. Local protests and factory unrest are flaring up.Gregory W. Slayton, a former US diplomat, summed it up: 'With over $50 trillion in total debt... and an unemployment rate in depression territory... it is not surprising that local riots, factory arsons and anti-government protests have flared all over China.'When domestic problems grow, Beijing often looks outward. Intelligence sources remind, 'China is known for externalising its internal problems and instability, especially against India.' They warn that reshuffles in the PLA Western Theatre Command could stir new skirmishes in Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh — just as they did in the South China Sea during the Bo Xilai scandal or Ladakh during the COVID-19 pandemic.Behind the Party's heavy red doors, no one knows what comes next. But signs point to a dramatic turn. China's top professors are criticising Xi in print — once unthinkable. Party elders hint that only a shift can rescue China's reputation.One elder was blunt: under Xi, China is isolated, with friends who are 'good for nothing.' That isolation has left Xi vulnerable. For now, he keeps his titles. But power may be sliding away.
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Business Standard
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- Business Standard
India seen as telling China to move on both troops and border talks
Defence Minister Rajnath Singh told his Chinese counterpart Admiral Dong Jun in Qingdao on Thursday that border management would help resolve the complex issues surrounding the India-China dispute. Singh's remarks included the words 'permanent solution of border demarcation by rejuvenating the established mechanism on the issue', as mentioned in a media statement issued by the Ministry of Defence (MoD) in New Delhi. The comments, according to Indian foreign policy and military analysts, indicate two things. One, a positive signal from the Indian government, and two, the push for de-escalation and de-induction along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) that has been heavily militarised over the past five years. Speaking to Dong on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) defence ministers' meeting, Singh called for bridging the trust deficit created after the Galwan River valley clash in 2020, 'by taking action on ground'. The hand-to-hand combat killed at least 24 Indian and Chinese soldiers, and froze the bilateral relationship until a thaw that followed a meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of a Brics summit in Russia in October. India and China have agreed to continue discussions at various levels to achieve progress on issues related to disengagement, de-escalation, border management and 'eventually de-limitation through existing mechanisms', the MoD statement said. 'He (Singh) was trying to convey that it is important to move ahead,' Srikanth Kondapalli, professor, China studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, said. 'The defence minister also spoke from the perspective of the armed forces on the ground.' The remarks reflect an aspiration for a desirable outcome for both countries, Kondapalli said, adding that not just bilaterally, the two Asian giants have not been able to cooperate on addressing major international issues such as wars and geopolitics in these five years. 'Chinese are mindful of that, too.' Lieutenant General Raj Shukla (retired) said, 'India's position also is that the border issue can only be resolved if the associated attributes, such as disengagement, de-escalation and de-induction are addressed collectively, without disadvantaging either side.' While disengagement has happened to an extent and joint patrolling has resumed in many spots, a lot of troops and defence equipment remain. At the height of tensions after the clash, troops had moved to the LAC in their thousands, often positioned in close proximity. Much of the equipment gathered there has yet to be removed and many troops have not gone back to their bases, Kondapalli said. Former prime minister Rajiv Gandhi's China visit in 1988 and meeting with Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping -- seen as an ice-breaker after a diplomatic freeze triggered by the 1962 war -- was also when a mechanism of border management was established. It has been disrupted by skirmishes since 2017. National Security Advisor Ajit Doval met Chinese Foreign Minister and politburo member of the Communist Party of China Wang Yi in Beijing earlier last week. Wang is expected to visit India later this year for the special representatives' talk with Doval. Other than the SR mechanism, multiple rounds of discussions at different diplomatic and military levels have taken place between India and China over the years. 'Yet, the border is only one aspect of the larger Sino-Indian challenge. What we need to address in speed and scale is the growing technological disparity, the asymmetry in domains like space and artificial intelligence, as also in the maritime sphere,' Shukla said. 'The surest way to secure peace with China is by creating solid deterrence,' Shukla, who was the general officer commanding-in-chief of the Indian Army training command at the time of the Galwan clash, said. He also pointed to problems within the Chinese military, citing the reported purge of a large number of generals in the People's Liberation Army. 'Many of its capacities are exaggerated through cognitive warfare.'
Indian Express
40 minutes ago
- Indian Express
The Dalai Lama, his successor, and China
A statement by the Dalai Lama on his reincarnation is expected on Tuesday when Professor Samdhong Rinpoche, a former chairman of the cabinet of the Central Tibetan Administration (CTA), and Penpa Tsering, the Sikyong or political leader of the CTA, read out a message from him. The 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso, will turn 90 on July 6. Why is this birthday of the spiritual leader and the head of Tibetan Buddhism particularly significant? The Dalai Lama was born in the hamlet of Taktser in north-eastern Tibet — now Qinghai province of China — on July 6, 1935, and was identified at age 2 as the reincarnation of Thubten Gyatso, the 13th Dalai Lama. A year after the communists took power in China, the People's Liberation Army invaded Tibet. In 1951, Tibet was annexed by China, and in March 1959, a Tibetan national uprising was crushed by Chinese troops. 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'They should consult the various heads of the Tibetan Buddhist traditions and the reliable oath-bound Dharma Protectors who are linked inseparably to the lineage of the Dalai Lamas. They should seek advice and direction from these concerned beings and carry out the procedures of search and recognition in accordance with past tradition. I shall leave clear written instructions about this.' On Monday, the Dalai Lama said: 'There will be some kind of framework within which we can talk about the continuation of the institution of the Dalai Lamas.' China denounces the 14th Dalai Lama as a 'splittist', 'traitor', and an exile with 'no right to represent the Tibetan people', and prohibits any public show of devotion towards him. In his 2011 statement, the Dalai Lama had said that his reincarnation should be found in a 'free country, not under Chinese control'. He also said that 'no recognition should be given to a reincarnation selected for political purposes by the Chinese government'. 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Indian Express
3 hours ago
- Indian Express
What India is hoping for on US deal: Up to 20% tariff differential vis-a-vis China rate
AS THE India–US trade talks enter their final decisive phase in Washington DC, policy makers here hope that three implicit assumptions of New Delhi materialise, the most important being a steady differential between the US tariffs on China and India. Despite US President Donald Trump's vacillations on trade policy, the government is confident that the administration in Washington DC will maintain a differential of 10-20 per cent in tariffs between China and countries such as India. 'The deal needs to be clinched precisely for this gap to be maintained,' an official said. The official said the US is driving hard for market access in politically sensitive sectors such as agriculture and dairy, and there are strong red lines here. But a section of officials also reckon it is important to ensure a good differential between the US tariffs on India and China, for which a deal is vital. 'The question is whether the Indian negotiators would have to settle for a limited early- harvest type of deal, or would they have to turn away from the negotiations for now, let the July 9 deadline pass, and then rebuild efforts to bridge the gaps. A full-scale deal looks out of the question for now,' another official with experience of trade negotiations said. Second, there is now a realisation that cutting tariffs across segments, especially intermediate goods, might be a net positive for India. New Delhi did back out at the last minute from signing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (a trade deal among Asia-Pacific countries including China) given the sensitivities of agri livelihoods. But there is greater receptiveness now within India's policy circles to cut tariffs on some industrial goods, including automobiles, and some agri products of interest to the Americans such as apples, almonds, walnuts, avocados and spirits. There is also more openness on the GM (genetically modified) foods issue too. Also, India has headroom to import more from the US, especially in three sectors – crude, defence equipment and nuclear, to manage Trump's constant references to the trade gap. Third, there is a growing view that the baseline tariffs are here to stay. So, effectively, what India would be negotiating for is a rate between 10 per cent and 26 per cent. Prior to Trump's taking over in January, the effective US duty on India was just 4 per cent, and there were virtually no non-tariff barriers. What is more consequential today is the effective duty on Chinese products on a landed basis across US ports in commodity categories where Indian producers are reasonably competitive. The net tariff differential with India, and how that curve continues to move, is of particular interest here, given the belief that Washington DC would ensure a reasonable tariff differential between China and India. Officials said a 20 per cent differential is expected to tide over some of India's structural downsides — infrastructural bottlenecks, logistics woes, high interest cost, the cost of doing business, corruption, etc. On the face of it, Trump's announcement of 55 per cent tariffs on China on June 14 could theoretically mean a nearly 30 percentage point difference with respect to the 26 per cent on India. But there are a few caveats: for the Trump administration, whose tariff proposals generally have had a half life of less than 10 days, it is not clear how long the new tariffs announced on China after the latest round of talks between the two sides in London would last. Also, in the talks earlier in Geneva in May that led to a temporary truce, US tariffs on Chinese products were brought down to 30 per cent from 145 per cent and Beijing slashed levies on US imports to 10 per cent, while promising to lift barriers on critical mineral exports. While in a social media post, Trump claimed the US would impose tariffs on Chinese goods of 55 per cent, the catch here is that the figure included tariffs put in place during Trump's first term. So, while the 55 per cent tariff on imported Chinese goods might seem to retain a reasonable differential over the tariffs imposed by the US on India, this figure of 55 per cent crucially, includes a 25 per cent pre-existing tariff that was imposed by Trump in his first term, and that the Biden administration persisted with. The remaining components of this 55 per cent tariff are the 10 per cent baseline 'reciprocal' tariff and the 20 per cent tariff imposed initially by the Trump administration on China citing fentanyl trafficking. So, the real tariff calculation on China should ideally exclude the 25 per cent pre-existing tariff, which pretty much negates the impression of a big tariff difference with India; at least for now. The upside for India is that the trade deal under discussion with the US, which New Delhi is working to clinch before July 19, could see a further drop in tariffs from the current 26 per cent to closer to 10 per cent. The problem, though, is that China's leverage in its trade discussions with the US could mean a further downward revision in tariffs from the effective 30 per cent that was arrived upon at the Geneva talks. Though the details of the deal were still unclear, analysts predicted China seems to have gained the upper-hand after China's rare earth restrictions prompted US carmakers, including Ford Motor and Chrysler, to cut production. Ravi Dutta Mishra is a Principal Correspondent with The Indian Express, covering policy issues related to trade, commerce, and banking. He has over five years of experience and has previously worked with Mint, CNBC-TV18, and other news outlets. ... Read More Anil Sasi is National Business Editor with the Indian Express and writes on business and finance issues. He has worked with The Hindu Business Line and Business Standard and is an alumnus of Delhi University. ... Read More
