The decades-long policy Vietnam is scrapping to overhaul birth rate
The new regulation grants families greater freedom in deciding how many children to have.
Vietnam's fertility rate has dropped from a stable 2.1 between 1999 and 2022 to 1.91 in 2024, marking the third consecutive year of decline.
Experts attribute the declining birth rate to work stress, financial pressures, career ambitions, and shifting social norms, particularly in urban areas like Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.
Vietnam also faces a gender imbalance due to a cultural preference for sons, with the health ministry reportedly proposing to triple fines to about $3,800 to curb foetal gender selection.
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BBC News
14 hours ago
- BBC News
Falling birth rate in Jersey a 'ticking bomb'
Jersey's falling birth rate is a "ticking bomb" for the island, the housing minister Sam Mézec said the declining rate, combined with an ageing population, posed a huge comments come after a Policy Centre Jersey report based on data from the Superintendent Registrar showed the number of births in Jersey between 2021 and 2024 fell by 20% compared to a 5% drop in England and birth rate in the first half of 2025 was 4% lower than the first half of 2024, figures also showed. Mézec said difficulty finding the right home was putting young families off having children in Jersey, and he had friends who "moved away from Jersey so they can afford to have children".He said: "They just can't find the kind of home they want to bring their children up in, a place with enough bedrooms, outdoor space, and over the last few decades that has become more and more unaffordable in Jersey.""We will have problems if we don't have a large enough working population providing the services and paying the taxes supporting the young and the retired.""We need to be planning now for policies that start to reverse that trend, and that means supporting younger people into family-sized homes." Smaller communities 'vulnerable' He added: "What's our working demographic going to look like in 20 or 30 years if we don't have enough young people going through our education system and going into work when they reach adulthood to provide the services that supports the whole of society including the ageing population?"This could be a ticking bomb if we don't get this right."Mark Boleat, a senior advisor at the Policy Centre Jersey, said it was concerning the local birth rate was falling faster than other centre's report found the number of babies born in Jersey in 2024 had fallen by 10% compared to the year before, and the number of primary school pupils had fallen by 5.6% in the last two Boleat said smaller communities such as Jersey were more vulnerable to falling said: "In a big country, it can fall but it doesn't have quite the effect. In Jersey, the fall... over the last few years is already having a very significant effect."So, over the last couple of years in England, the number of births has fallen 5%. In Jersey, it's fallen by 20%. We need to understand why." Parents told the BBC the cost of living made raising children very Yordanov is 33 and has a son, but said the cost of living was making him reconsider having more said: "I love Jersey, but most likely if we have another child we are going to move because it's going to be unbearable."The cost of raising children here is one of the main reasons the birth rate is so low. There is absolutely no other reason and it's getting ridiculously expensive."In a couple, one of your salaries just covers nursery."Abdul Bassit, 43, has two children and said his biggest costs were clothing and food, which cost "more and more everyday". However, environmentalist Nigel Jones argued the declining birth rate locally was not said: "We all know that, worldwide, the biggest predictor of a lower birth rate is the level of education of the population. "The more educated young women are, the fewer children they are likely to have, and I don't see that as a problem at all."There are plenty of children being born all over the world - it's not like we have shortage worldwide. "We need to be less insular on this and we need to think, if work needs doing in the future, there will be people who can come to Jersey and do it."
The Independent
14 hours ago
- The Independent
Vietnam wants to be the next Asian tiger and it's overhauling its economy to make it happen.
Beneath red banners and a gold bust of revolutionary leader Ho Chi Minh in Hanoi 's central party school, Communist Party chief To Lam declared the arrival of 'a new era of development' late last year. The speech was more than symbolic— it signaled the launch of what could be Vietnam's most ambitious economic overhaul in decades. Vietnam aims to get rich by 2045 and become Asia's next 'tiger economy' — a term used to describe the earlier ascent of countries like South Korea and Taiwan. The challenge ahead is steep: Reconciling growth with overdue reforms, an aging population, climate risks and creaking institutions. There's added pressure from President Donald Trump over Vietnam's trade surplus with the U.S., a reflection of its astounding economic trajectory. In 1990, the average Vietnamese could afford about $1,200 worth of goods and services a year, adjusted for local prices. Today, that figure has risen by more than 13 times to $16,385. Vietnam's transformation into a global manufacturing hub with shiny new highways, high-rise skylines and a booming middle class has lifted millions of its people from poverty, similar to China. But its low-cost, export-led boom is slowing, while the proposed reforms — expanding private industries, strengthening social protections, and investing in tech, green energy. It faces a growing obstacle in climate change. 'It's all hands on can't waste time anymore," said Mimi Vu of the consultancy Raise Partners. The export boom can't carry Vietnam forever Investment has soared, driven partly by U.S.-China trade tensions, and the U.S. is now Vietnam's biggest export market. Once-quiet suburbs have been replaced with industrial parks where trucks rumble through sprawling logistics hubs that serve global brands. Vietnam ran a $123.5 billion trade surplus with the U.S. trade in 2024, angering Trump, who threatened a 46% U.S. import tax on Vietnamese goods. The two sides appear to have settled on a 20% levy, and twice that for goods suspected of being transshipped, or routed through Vietnam to avoid U.S. trade restrictions. During negotiations with the Trump administration, Vietnam's focus was on its tariffs compared to those of its neighbors and competitors, said Daniel Kritenbrink, a former U.S. ambassador to Vietnam. 'As long as they're in the same zone, in the same ballpark, I think Vietnam can live with that outcome," he said. But he added questions remain over how much Chinese content in those exports might be too much and how such goods will be taxed. Vietnam was preparing to shift its economic policies even before Trump's tariffs threatened its model of churning out low-cost exports for the world, aware of what economists call the 'middle-income trap,' when economies tend to plateau without major reforms. To move beyond that, South Korea bet on electronics, Taiwan on semiconductors, and Singapore on finance, said Richard McClellan, founder of the consultancy RMAC Advisory. But Vietnam's economy today is more diverse and complex than those countries were at the time and it can't rely on just one winning sector to drive long-term growth and stay competitive as wages rise and cheap labor is no longer its main advantage. It needs to make 'multiple big bets,' McClellan said. Vietnam's game plan is hedging its bets Following China's lead, Vietnam is counting on high-tech sectors like computer chips, artificial intelligence and renewable energy, providing strategic tax breaks and research support in cities like Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, and Danang. It's also investing heavily in infrastructure, including civilian nuclear plants and a $67 billion North–South high-speed railway, that will cut travel time from Hanoi to Ho Chi Minh City to eight hours. Vietnam also aspires to become a global financial center. The government plans two special financial centers, in bustling Ho Chi Minh City and in the seaside resort city of Danang, with simplified rules to attract foreign investors, tax breaks, support for financial tech startups, and easier ways to settle business disputes. Underpinning all of this is institutional reform. Ministries are being merged, low-level bureaucracies have been eliminated and Vietnam's 63 provinces will be consolidated into 34 to build regional centers with deeper talent pools. Private business to take the lead Vietnam is counting on private businesses to lead its new economic push — a seismic shift from the past. In May, the Communist Party passed Resolution 68. It calls private businesses the 'most important force' in the economy, pledging to break away from domination by state-owned and foreign companies. So far, large multinationals have powered Vietnam's exports, using imported materials and parts and low cost local labor. Local companies are stuck at the low-end of supply chains, struggling to access loans and markets that favored the 700-odd state-owned giants, from colonial-era beer factories with arched windows to unfashionable state-run shops that few customers bother to enter. 'The private sector remains heavily constrained," said Nguyen Khac Giang of Singapore's ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute. Again emulating China, Vietnam wants 'national champions' to drive innovation and compete globally, not by picking winners, but by letting markets decide. The policy includes easier loans for companies investing in new technology, priority in government contracts for those meeting innovation goals, and help for firms looking to expand overseas. Even mega-projects like the North-South High-Speed Rail, once reserved for state-run giants, are now open to private bidding. By 2030, Vietnam hopes to elevate at least 20 private firms to a global scale. But Giang warned that there will be pushback from conservatives in the Communist Party and from those who benefit from state-owned firms. A Closing Window from climate change Even as political resistance threatens to stall reforms, climate threats require urgent action. After losing a major investor over flood risks, Bruno Jaspaert knew something had to change. His firm, DEEP C Industrial Zones, houses more than 150 factories across northern Vietnam. So it hired a consultancy to redesign flood resilience plans. Climate risk is becoming its own kind of market regulation, forcing businesses to plan better, build smarter, and adapt faster. 'If the whole world will decide it's a can go very fast,' said Jaspaert. When Typhoon Yagi hit last year, causing $1.6 billion in damage, knocking 0.15% off Vietnam's GDP and battering factories that produce nearly half the country's economic output, roads in DEEP C industrial parks stayed dry. Climate risks are no longer theoretical: If Vietnam doesn't take strong action to adapt to and reduce climate change, the country could lose 12–14.5% of its GDP each year by 2050, and up to one million people could fall into extreme poverty by 2030, according to the World Bank. Meanwhile, Vietnam is growing old before it gets rich. The country's 'golden population' window — when working-age people outnumber dependents — will close by 2039 and the labor force is projected to peak just three years later. That could shrink productivity and strain social services, especially since families — and women in particular — are the default caregivers, said Teerawichitchainan Bussarawan of the Centre for Family and Population Research at the National University of Singapore. Vietnam is racing to pre-empt the fallout by expanding access to preventive healthcare so older adults remain healthier and more independent. Gradually raising the retirement age and drawing more women into the formal workforce would help offset labor gaps and promote "healthy aging,' Bussarawan said. ___ The Associated Press' climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP's standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at
The Independent
a day ago
- The Independent
What is behind Japan's unprecedented population crisis – and can it be stopped?
Japan 's population is shrinking faster than ever, with nearly a million more deaths than births in 2024 – the steepest decline since records began in 1968. New figures released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications last week showed that the number of Japanese nationals fell by over 900,000 last year, driven by record-low births of just 686,061 and almost 1.59 million deaths. Japanese prime minister Shigeru Ishiba has called the trend a 'quiet emergency' and pledged measures like free childcare and flexible work hours, but demographic pressures are already straining pensions, healthcare, and the fabric of rural communities. Japan's population has been shrinking for 16 consecutive years, falling to 120.65 million in 2024 from its 2009 peak of 126.6 million, figures from the Internal Affairs Ministry show. Nearly one in three citizens in Japan is now aged 65 or older, while just six in 10 fall within the working-age bracket of 15 to 64. The World Bank ranks Japan as having the world's second-oldest population, surpassed only by Monaco. In many countries facing similar challenges, like South Korea and China, immigration has helped offset labour shortages, and Japan has also gradually increased foreign worker numbers for that reason. However, this has become politically contentious. A newly formed anti-immigration party, Sanseito, recently capitalised on this public unease, blaming foreign residents for the nation's economic woes. Its message resonated strongly enough in last month's parliamentary election to weaken the ruling coalition's majority. Foreign residents now account for nearly 3 per cent of the population, hitting a record 3.6 million as Japan cautiously opened up to some forms of immigration through initiatives like a digital nomad visa. Still, the country remains reluctant to rely heavily on foreign labour, and the long-standing low fertility rate – rooted in high living costs, stagnant wages, rigid work norms, and entrenched gender roles – means even bold policy changes could take decades to reverse the trend. Taro Kono, a Japanese parliamentarian, told CBS News earlier this year: 'There are less and less number of a young generation. And all the burdens are on the young generation. And they won't be able to sustain. So society is going to be breaking up. Economy is just going to stagnate.' Some experts believe that Japan's declining population is tied in part to the growing professional success of its women. Today, a higher percentage of Japanese women are in the workforce than their American counterparts. Japan's notoriously gruelling work culture, combined with a male-centred social structures, leaves little room to balance career and family life, observers have noted over the years. Japanese-American author Roland Kelts describes the situation as 'an implosion of marriage'. He told CBS News' 60 Minutes that the days of arranged marriages are behind us. 'The corporate guys would marry the office ladies,' Mr Kelts said. 'And this was all set up. It's gone now. And the office ladies make more money than the corporate guys. So now, you have this shift in economics that has not been reflected in social norms.' In 2023, fewer than 500,000 Japanese couples married, the lowest number since 1917, according to the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan. 'Childbearing outside of marriage is rare', and so 'this low marriage rate means that many Japanese men and women will never have children,' Noriko O Tsuya, a Japanese economist who specialises in fertility and family change in Japan and developed countries, wrote for the East-West Centre in 2017. As in many countries, women in Japan often face pressure to choose between a career and a family – but the nation's entrenched overtime work culture makes the prospect of pregnancy and child–rearing particularly daunting. 'When they marry, they have to give up so many things,' Mari Miura, a professor of political science at Sophia University in Tokyo, was quoted as saying by The New York Times. 'So many freedoms and so much independence'. 'It's so obvious for a lot of women who have jobs that it's very difficult to find a man who is available to be a caretaker in the family,' Kumiko Nemoto, a professor of sociology at Kyoto University of Foreign Studies, was quoted as saying by the outlet. According to Mainichi, in Tochigi prefecture in Japan, a survey found that more than three-quarters of women feel they shoulder over 70 per cent of household chores. Last year, the fertility rate – the average number of children a woman has in her lifetime – fell to a record low of 1.2, far below the 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population, according to the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. In response, the government rolled out a raft of 'now or never' measures to stem the decline, from urging men to take paternity leave to local authorities introducing reforms aimed at improving work–life balance. Although some men express a desire to be more involved at home and the government has urged businesses to reform Japan's work culture, employees are still expected to devote the bulk of their waking hours to their jobs – leaving many husbands with little time to share household responsibilities. Earlier this year, a Japanese expert on demographic trends and ageing society suggested mandating childcare leave for fathers as one of the ways to boost the country's plummeting birth rate. Hiroshi Yoshida, a professor at Tohoku University's Research Center for Aged Economy and Society, told The Independent that childcare leave for fathers should be significantly increased and made more common in Japan, similar to the policies in Scandinavian countries. 'Male participation in childcare is very low in Japan, and it needs to be boosted,' he said. He also proposed a system where senior citizens could step in to fill labour gaps when the younger population takes childcare leave. He pointed out the example of the 'Papa quota' in Norway, where fathers are required to take at least one month of childcare leave after the birth of a child. Prof Yoshida advocated for a similar approach in Japan to improve gender equality and support work-life balance for families. City administrations have also launched initiatives to try and address the problem locally. Tokyo has created its own matrimonial dating app, which has attracted three to four times more applicants than was expected, as well as a four-day workweek for government employees. Governor Yuriko Koike said these measures were aimed at making it easier for people to build relationships, support working mothers, and ultimately boost the country's birth rate. 'We will review work styles … with flexibility, ensuring no one has to give up their career due to life events such as childbirth or childcare,' she said at the time. 'Now is the time for Tokyo to take the initiative to protect and enhance the lives, livelihoods and economy of our people during these challenging times for the nation,' she added. Meanwhile, many rural communities in Japan are reportedly emptying as younger residents leave for cities and better opportunities. Government data from last year showed that nearly four million houses have been left vacant across the country in the past twenty years. Ichinono, a Japanese village with fewer than 60 mostly elderly residents, for instance, now uses handmade mannequins to represent its once-thriving community. Only one baby has been born there in 20 years – two-year-old Kuranosuke, whose parents moved from Osaka seeking a stronger sense of community. 'We were afraid they (their children) would become unmarriageable if they remained stuck in a remote place like this. Out they went, and they never came back, getting jobs elsewhere. We're now paying the price,' 88-year-old widow Hisayo Yamazaki told AFP. 'We're probably outnumbered by puppets,' she added.
