Japan battles a leadership void

Deccan Herald

17 hours ago

On July 20, Japan's Upper House election culminated with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) coalition losing its majority. This marks the first time since the LDP's foundation year in 1955 that it does not have a majority in either of the houses. The party failed to reach its goal of securing 50 seats out of 125 up for re-election. However, simultaneously, the opposition, particularly the Democratic Party For the People (DPFP), and Sanseito performed well, winning 17 and 14 seats, respectively. The election results show the decreasing popularity of the LDP-Komeito coalition and the public's anger against the political status quo. Furthermore, it signals that politics in Japan is, again, entering a flux, where there are no clear winners or losers..The LDP's loss in the elections adds to a long list of events marking its declining popularity among the masses. Since Shinzo Abe's step-down, the LDP has struggled with finding a popular face that could lead the party and, at the same time, enjoy strong support from the public. Other issues, such as rising inflation, the recent shortage of rice, and the shadow of political scandals, have added to its waning appeal. This fall in support has enhanced the chances of other parties, including DPFP and Sanseito, a recent entrant in the scene. The fragmentation of conservative voters into anti-democratic, pro-Abe, and anti-Ishiba factions has also helped the opposition parties, particularly Sanseito, to increase their seats to 14, from just 1..Japan PM Ishiba vows to stay in office to deal with US tariff talks.While the election results have thrown some surprises with a new Japanese political configuration, they also pose direct implications for the future of the LDP leadership and the stability of Shigeru Ishiba's Prime Ministership. Before the election, many LDP factions aimed to bring down Ishiba. The recent setback has allowed them to try to mobilise opinion within the party. The current leading contenders within the party are Shinjiro Koizumi, Ishiba's Minister of Agriculture, and Sanae Takaichi, former economic minister and Abe faction leader, who ran against Ishiba during last year's elections in October. After the election debacle, Ishiba expressed his intention to continue serving the country. However, if push comes to shove, we will see a political contest between Koizumi and Takaichi to secure the LDP leadership position..Rise of the Far Right.Weakening of the ruling LDP is expected to have serious socio-political consequences besides its economic fallouts. The rise of DPFP, a centre-right party that was established in 2018, is significant. It did extremely well in the election, quadrupling its number of seats. This shows an increasing interest among conservative voters in the party's vision. Its call for raising the income tax threshold has gained considerable traction among the conservative and working classes. However, the party's lack of seriousness in presenting a comprehensive economic plan will increasingly limit its goal of achieving political success..Besides DPFP, the increasing popularity of Sanseito is expected to inflame more xenophobic sentiment in the country. The rise of Sanseito has highlighted the success of mainstreaming political myths that are rooted in conspiracy theories and anti-facts, and the prominence of cult figures. This rise of the Far Right is in line with a global phenomenon that has resonated with countries such as South Korea, where politics is also inspired by the success of Donald Trump's Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement. The success of Sanseito's 'Japanese First' campaign has prodded mainstream and other parties, including LDP, to adopt populist positions on critical issues such as support for anti-immigration policies..After LDP's loss in the October election, the upper house election results have again spelled the common people's frustration with Japanese politics, particularly a resentment among the youth against gerontocracy. These results highlight an increasing dissatisfaction with the traditional parties, including the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), one of the country's leading opposition outfits..Japan's current political environment lacks authentic leadership. It is impacted by a weakening ruling coalition and an emerging opposition with inherent rifts. In the coming months, when the parliament is in session and the supplementary budget is tabled, the ruling coalition will see a new political reality unfold – it will have to manage the opposition parties while seeking their support for passing bills in both houses. The path for LDP and the Ishiba administration will not be easy. Whether the opposition can force him to resign will depend on its ability to function as a united force against the incumbent..(The writer is a junior fellow, Indo-Pacific, Strategic Studies Programme, at Observer Research Foundation)