Europe is trying to woo Southeast Asia — but it won't win it over the U.S. or China

CNBC

6 hours ago

European leaders are looking to Southeast Asia with renewed interest amid Washington's aggressive tariff agenda, but experts warn that the state of regional trade ties makes it challenging to disrupt the U.S. or China's hold.
Southeast Asia is in a predicament: its ally China is ramping up its advances in the South China Sea, with state-of-the-art Chinese bomber planes. spotted in the disputed Paracel Islands in the region late last month as tensions flare with the Philippines. Meanwhile, its other ally, the U.S., hangs the threat of tariffs over the world, with uncertainty mounting as a 90-day reprieve is set to expire in July.
Europe is now seizing the opportunity to surface as an alternative ally to emerging Asian nations, with French President Emmanuel Macron calling for stronger ties between the blocs at the 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue that wrapped up earlier this month.
Southeast Asia brings Europe the opportunity to access another market for its defense sector, according to Bob Herrera-Lim, managing director at Teneo. Ifri's Pajon adds that the region could also provide Europe a diversified supply chain to hedge against economic reliance on the U.S. or China and significant raw material reserves essential for the EU's green and digital transition.
Europe is ambitious in its hopes for emerging Asia, but analysts nevertheless doubt it can overtake the U.S. or China's influence in the region.
"Europe, on its own, can offer Southeast Asia a valuable option to hedge against the risks of overdependence on either China or the United States," Céline Pajon, head of Japan and Indo-Pacific Research at Ifri's Center for Asian Studies, told CNBC by email.
While ties span more than half a century, Southeast Asian and European relations have been mired in various challenges that Teneo's Herrera-Lim attributes to factors such as geographic distance and diverging views over politics or the environment.
In his keynote speech at the 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue, Macron called for stronger ties between Europe and the Indo-Pacific's "new special relationship." He stressed that both blocs are facing the "potential erosion of long-time alliances" and the threat of countries vying for control or resorting to force, drawing direct parallels between China's advances in the South-China Sea and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Yet similar experiences alone might not be enough to sway emerging Asia away from the U.S. or China, according to Herrera-Lim.
"Form follows function in Southeast Asia," he told CNBC in a call, "Relationships are built on economic ties in Southeast Asia, more than anything else."
While the EU has trade ties with Singapore and Vietnam, talks for other bilateral deals or an EU-ASEAN wide free trade agreements (FTA) have been stalled for years, and Ifri's Pajon said that the bloc "still has progress to make" in increasing its presence and investment in the region.
Meanwhile, Beijing remains the Southeast Asia's largest trading partner since 2009, with total goods in trade reaching $982.3 billion in 2024. The U.S. follows behind in second place, with an estimated $476.8 billion goods in trade last year. The EU trails behind in third place, with roughly 258.7 billion euros ($299.7 billion) of goods in trade over the same period.
Without any meaningful reform or the promise of increased trade in the future, Herrera-Lim said that it will be difficult for Europe to compete against the bloc's established trading partners.
"If in the next week or next month, China says, 'We're doing reforms so that domestic markets are opened up in China for Southeast Asian goods,' [then] Southeast Asian countries would line up to get access to the Chinese market. Independent of their politics around many of these issues," he said.
While Europe might not be able to replace the U.S. or China in emerging Asia, it can nevertheless offer transparent, reliable partnerships that aren't about zero-sum competition, Lizza Bomassi Research Analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), told CNBC by email.
"Europe's value proposition lies in being a reliable partner in critical areas like energy security, green infrastructure, and digital governance," she said, "These are areas where Southeast Asian countries want to diversify and build resilience, especially given concerns about overdependence."
Ifri's Pajon said that strengthening ties with Europe would allow Southeast Asia to diversify its strategic partnerships and enhance their capacity to resist hegemonic pressures.
"The presence of more partners, including Europe, raises the diplomatic and reputational costs for China to escalate [territorial disputes in the region], particularly given Beijing's emphasis on a 'peaceful rise'," Bomassi said.
"In this context, the EU-ASEAN partnership isn't about hard military deterrence, but it serves as a crucial symbolic defence mechanism. It reinforces that Southeast Asia isn't isolated and has multiple partners, making the region more resilient to coercion," she added.