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4 minutes ago
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Why Putin Must Be Thrilled With the Result of the Alaska Summit
Russian President Putin speeches during their joint press conference with U.S. Persident Donald Trump after their meeing on war in Ukraine at U.S. Air Base In Alaska on August 15, 2025, in Anchorage, Alaska, United States. Credit - Contributor—Getty Images Vladimir Putin wanted a lot of things from his visit to Alaska. A ceasefire in Ukraine was not one of them. Throughout the summer, his troops have been grinding out advances along the frontline, and they achieved a sudden breakthrough in the days before the Alaska summit. Putin's main objective was to buy time for his troops to continue those advances, all while avoiding the 'very severe consequences' that President Donald Trump promised to impose on the Russians if they refused to call a ceasefire. It appears Putin succeeded on both counts. In his public statements on Friday night, Trump made clear he no longer plans to impose any economic pain on Russia. 'Because of what happened today, I think I don't have to think about that,' he told Fox News after the summit. 'I may have to think about it in two weeks or three weeks or something, but we don't have to think about that right now.' In Trump's understanding, two or three weeks is a malleable term, as the New York Times recently noted, 'not a measurement of time so much as a placeholder.' Read more: From the Sidelines, Ukraine Prepares to Watch as U.S., Russia Discuss Its Fate On the battlefield, however, it could mean the difference between holding off the Russians and allowing them to seize another region of Ukraine. The epicenter of the fighting in recent weeks has been the region of Donetsk, where Ukrainian troops were able to stop the latest Russian breakthrough. The latest maps of the fighting indicate that the Kremlin remains determined to seize that region. Another few weeks of Russian infantry assaults could achieve that goal, allowing Putin to negotiate with the U.S. and Ukraine from a position of greater advantage. 'Things at the front are going well for them,' a senior Ukrainian military officer tells TIME. 'Slow but steady.' These gains helped Putin negotiate in Alaska from a position of strength. Ahead of their talks, Trump indicated that he wants the warring sides to 'swap' territories, with Ukraine giving away its own land in exchange for areas Russia has occupied. 'They've occupied some very prime territory,' Trump said a few days before his summit with Putin. 'We're going to try and get some of that territory back for Ukraine.' Trump failed to achieve that in Alaska, and his chances of getting what he calls a 'fair deal' for Ukraine diminish as Russian forces continue to gain ground. For reasons that remain unclear, Trump said he believes that Putin wants to stop the fighting. 'I believe he wants to get it over,' Trump said. 'Now, I've said that a few times, and I've been disappointed.' Alaska marks the latest of these disappointments, but Trump has shown no inclination to change his strategy. He did not even secure some of the easier concessions from Putin that might have given the Americans something to show for the Alaskan spectacle. One of Russia's leading dissidents, Yulia Navalnaya, had urged Trump to secure the release of Russian political prisoners jailed for their opposition to the war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, for his part, has urged the U.S. to demand the release of thousands of Ukrainian children that Russian forces have abducted from the war zone. Neither of these issues came up in the official statements in Alaska. Appearing side by side on Friday, Trump gave his guest the floor, allowing Putin to deliver another one of his rambling history lessons, a maneuver that has been likened to diplomatic 'filibustering.' When Trump's turn came to speak, he admitted that the talks had not resulted in a deal. The next step toward peace, he suggested, would be to arrange a meeting between Putin and Zelensky. But the Russian side has given no indication that it would be open to such an arrangement. Instead, at the end of their press conference in Alaska, Putin suggested in English that he and Trump would meet 'next time in Moscow,' an idea that seemed to catch Trump off guard. 'Oh, that's an interesting one,' he replied. 'I'll get a little heat on that one.' This final exchange pointed again to the paltry outcomes of the summit. The two sides had not even agreed on a location or a format for the next stage of the peace process, while Putin came away confident enough to suggest that his capital would be a fitting venue. It was hard to blame him. Given the red-carpet treatment he received in Alaska, Putin had every reason to feel like a winner coming out of those talks. He had, after all, achieved his main objective, and given nothing away. Contact us at letters@
Yahoo
24 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Why the U.S. and China Are Playing Nice
Credit - Getty Images The U.S. and the People's Republic of China are strategic rivals in the battle for global leadership in the 21st century. So it was no surprise when President Donald Trump hit China with 20% tariffs in the first few weeks of his second term and then imposed reciprocal tariffs of 34% on 'Liberation Day.' And when Trump a few days later lowered tariff rates for everyone else to calm markets, he quadrupled duties on China to a whopping 145%. But all that now feels like ancient history. Over the past four months, Trump has bent over backwards to be kind to Beijing. The two sides announced a 90-day ceasefire in Geneva in early May, agreeing to reduce tariffs and negotiate their differences over export controls and other issues. (Remaining U.S. tariffs on China are still at roughly 55%, and China's tariffs on the U.S. stand at almost 33%. These are historically high levels, but not sufficient to outright stop trade.) Further discussions in London and Stockholm made enough progress for the two sides this week to announce another extension of the ceasefire, with the White House praising Beijing for being cooperative and flexible in the negotiations to date. Read More: Why Trump Will Blink First on China In the same vein, the Trump Administration has not shut down TikTok in the U.S. despite the fact that it is still Chinese-controlled, in contravention of American law; it denied a transit visa for Taiwanese President William Lai; and it is allowing Nvidia and AMD to sell advanced chips in China despite originally blocking many of these sales, following a pay-for-play deal. So why the sudden about-face on China? It is doubly odd given the U.S.'s simultaneous tough tact toward other members of the BRICS—a rival to the U.S.-led G7 that includes Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa—not to mention many of America's traditional allies. Three reasons stand out. First, both Washington and Beijing now have proven weapons that are restraining the aggressive instincts of the other side. Unlike others who caved in to Trump's pressure, Beijing retaliated, first with its own high tariffs, and then, more importantly, with restrictions on rare earth minerals, over which they have a global chokehold. Once Trump began lowering most of the initial reciprocal tariffs and calling for talks with Xi, they had confidence that restricting rare earths minerals and magnets would be met not with counterstrikes but with concessions. That includes the Trump Administration backing off imposing new export controls on several technologies and scrapping their threat to 'aggressively revoke' Chinese student visas. Beijing now believes it has perfected the recipe for making a 'TACO' ('Trump always chickens out'). Second, Trump and Xi both have an interest in strengthening economic confidence at home. With persistent overcapacity and price wars across industrial and consumer sectors, 'involution' has become the word of the year in China, a nod to the excessive competition that is hurting local businesses. Xi needs to shore up government finances, consolidate industries, and avoid further international barriers to Chinese exports and investment. The U.S.'s current economic picture is stronger, but constituents in town halls across the country have expressed deep worries about lost export markets, inflation, budget deficits, and a potential recession. Third, both Trump and Xi want to meet each other, most likely in the Fall in Asia. Trump has been signaling his desire for direct communication with Xi since at least April. He wants to assemble a deal that he can sell at home as boosting U.S. business opportunities and stopping the fentanyl epidemic, given China's role in producing most of the precursors in the synthetic opiod that is trafficked to America. The Chinese have played hard to get, privately saying any summit must be preceded by detailed negotiations and planning. Based on my conversations with experts in China in recent weeks, Xi wants to avoid being disrespected, as Ukrainian President Zelensky and other world leaders were during their White House visits. And with Trump making concession after concession, Beijing may want to consolidate its recent gains and aim even higher, perhaps inducing Trump to make further compromises over tariffs, export controls, and Taiwan. Read More: It's Time for Trump and Xi to Meet Although one should not dismiss the value of stable ties between the world's two largest economies, each equipped with massive stockpiles of nuclear weapons, this warming trend is unlikely to last very long. Both sides prefer calmness now because it aligns with their short-term interests. Chinese official rhetoric aside, neither side sees the relationship in cooperative terms, and neither is willing to take major steps to provide strategic reassurance to the other. The underlying fundamental challenges created by the countries' deep divisions over their economic ties, the potential for conflict over Taiwan and other hotspots, and their competing visions of the international order can only be papered over for so long. At some point Beijing may run out of luck, and either not concede enough in negotiations or push too hard to make a TACO, and instead generate a Trumpian tirade or policy overreaction. Trump's unpredictability make linear extrapolations of any U.S. policy or strategy a risky bet. At some point, for either reasons of policy or fashion, the U.S.'s current gentle approach toward Beijing is likely to eventually harden, and for a new scene in the drama to unfold. Read More: Why China Can't Win a Trade War Beijing knows no deal with Trump is permanent. They will enjoy the peace and quiet as long as they can, but they know they need to be prepared for the next round of escalation—whenever it arrives. Other countries, companies, and markets should, too. Contact us at letters@ Solve the daily Crossword
Yahoo
26 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trump could trigger a financial crisis in Russia — if he wants to — but has backed off from his threat of ‘very severe consequences'
President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin ended their meeting in Alaska on Friday without a ceasefire deal. Despite Trump's earlier threat that Moscow would face 'very severe consequences' if the summit didn't produce an agreement, he said he would hold off on imposing new sanctions. But a tougher U.S. crackdown on tankers delivering Russian oil would cripple Putin's war machine, an expert said. The U.S. holds immense leverage over Russia's economy and ability to continue waging war on Ukraine, but President Donald Trump has backed off from earlier warnings that lack of progress on a ceasefire would result in harsh penalties for Moscow. Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin ended their highly anticipated meeting in Alaska on Friday without a deal. On Saturday, Trump shifted his stance toward reaching a more comprehensive peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, mirroring Putin's position, rather than a ceasefire. He also reportedly backed Putin's idea for Ukraine to give up territory it holds in exchange for a Russian promise that it won't attack again. That marked a big swing from his rhetoric leading up to the Alaska meeting, as he threatened 'very severe consequences' for Russia if Putin didn't agree to a ceasefire. When asked why he didn't follow through, Trump said he would hold off on any new penalties and suggested the threat remains on the table as diplomacy plays out. 'Because of what happened today, I think I don't have to think about that now,' he told Fox News. 'I may have to think about it in two weeks or three weeks or something, but we don't have to think about that right now.' Trump had previously warned Russia's oil sector could face secondary sanctions. Oil and gas generate the bulk of the Kremlin's revenue, and the U.S. could exploit this critical vulnerability. In particular, cutting off the 'shadow fleet' of tankers that deliver Russia's oil under the radar would send the war economy into a 'deep financial crisis,' according to Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former chief economist at the Institute of International Finance. After the Biden administration sanctioned nearly 200 ships in January, just before Trump returned to office, their activity collapsed, he pointed out in a Substack post on Saturday. But there are 359 more ships that have already been sanctioned by the European Union or United Kingdom, but haven't been targeted yet by the U.S. 'Sanctioning these ships would be a hammer blow to the Russian war machine,' Brooks wrote. 'There would undoubtedly be a sharp fall in the Urals oil price, reducing the flow of hard currency to the Russian state, and the Ruble would most likely depreciate significantly.' Meanwhile, foreign policy expects have called the Alaska meeting a success for Putin as he was able to avoid severe consequences from Trump while also buying time for his military to make more battlefield gains in Ukraine. But Melinda Haring, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, also noted that Trump has significant leverage over Russia. 'Let's hope that Trump sees through Putin's endless appetite to talk and tires of the Russian dictator's pseudo-historical lectures,' she wrote in a blog post. 'Trump can squeeze the Russians; he seems to forget that the United States holds the cards, not Moscow.' Oil and gas revenue tumbled 27% in July from a year ago, and Russia is running out of financial resources as war-related spending deepens its budget deficit. The National Wealth Fund, a key source of reserves, has dwindled from $135 billion in January 2022 to just $35 billion this past May and is expected to run out later this year. 'Russia's economy is fast approaching a fiscal crunch that will encumber its war effort,' economist and Russia expert Anders Åslund wrote in a Project Syndicate op-ed last week. 'Though that may not be enough to compel Putin to seek peace, it does suggest that the walls are closing in on him.' This story was originally featured on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data