How the young in India perceive global politics

Hindustan Times

3 days ago

The return of the Donald Trump administration to the White House at the beginning of this year earmarked the inception of a more uncertain and unstable world order. In addition to this, certain unceasing challenges, such as the war in Europe, the crisis in West Asia, the rising spectre of terrorism in South Asia and most importantly, the growing assertiveness of China, raise further concerns about the state of international affairs. As India's role grows in the world, the aspirations of Indians to shape the global order have also been rising.
Now in its fourth year, the Observer Research Foundation's Foreign Policy Survey 2024: Young India and the China Challenge attempts to bridge the gap between foreign policy and how policy decisions and challenges are perceived by the country's youth. An annual initiative, the survey of young Indians (18-35 years) collected data from 5,050 respondents spread across 19 cities in India in 11 languages, between July 22 and September 26, 2024. The findings of the survey are restricted to this period and do not capture major developments after that, particularly the impact of Donald Trump on the global order, the deterioration in India-Pakistan ties after the Pahalgam terror attack in April, and the subsequent Operation Sindoor. But the survey sheds light on public opinion on India's approach towards major foreign policy concerns.
The overall support for India's foreign policy has increased consistently over the last four years, with 88% of respondents showing a positive perception this year. The central theme of this year's survey was to gauge the perception of China amongst India's youth. A higher 89% percentage consider border conflict with China as the biggest challenge for India, followed by cross-border terrorism (86%) and border conflict with Pakistan (85%). Even as China and India have resumed the process to achieve a thaw in ties, the trust deficit mires any prospect of a big breakthrough. The respondents who have expressed dissatisfaction with the bilateral relationship have also increased since last year's survey. Five years after the Galwan clashes, there are still concerns about China's rise, with many youth viewing it as a military threat and regarding the occupation of Tibet as a major impediment in the relationship (81%). China's presence in the neighbourhood is viewed with concern (73%) and there is increasing support for countering its presence. The youth also prioritises national security over economic partnerships (84%) and have shown support for imposing non-tariff barriers on China and cutting down on imports from the country. They also deem India's decision to stay out of Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative as beneficial to the country (79%).
The importance of the Indian Ocean region in terms of its strategic vitality has also increased, with 33% support followed by South Asia and the Indo-Pacific region. This also explains the concern shown about China's growing presence in the maritime domain. India's Neighbourhood First policy is viewed favourably, particularly its development and connectivity initiatives. While Nepal (72%) is considered as the most trusted neighbour, followed by Bhutan and Sri Lanka, for Bangladesh, the level of trust has decreased since 2022. The distrust for Pakistan and Afghanistan also outweighed the trust reposed in these countries (81% and 46% respectively). While the level of distrust for Afghanistan has decreased since last year, for Pakistan, the changed norms of engagement in the aftermath of Operation Sindoor and a new low in ties can lead to more caution.
There is also a growing appreciation for India's exercise of its strategic autonomy, vis-a-vis its ties with the Quad countries — the US, Australia and Japan and also its historical partner, Russia. The respondents expressed satisfaction with the US (86%) and also saw it as emerging as India's leading partner in the next 10 years. While this is a subset of the growing synergy in the bilateral relationship in the last few years, the impact of Trump 2.0 will reflect in the coming iterations of this annual survey. The respondents also urge India to side with the US in its rivalry with China (54%). The youth see a permanent status in the United Nations Security Council as an important goal for India while also endorsing a permanent invitee status for the country in the G7, to leverage the strong ties New Delhi has with the member countries.
While the subsequent surveys will show how much the developments of the past few months have influenced people's perceptions, the China-Pakistan nexus and its impact on India's interests and the trajectory that the US-China ties take in the future have already been underlined as critical determinants of India's future foreign policy trajectory.
Harsh V Pant is vice president, studies and foreign policy, and Shivam Shekhawat is junior fellow, Observer Research Foundation. The views expressed are personal