Not just GDP: Why India must think like China and Japan, says Sridhar Vembu
Agencies Zoho's Sridhar Vembu
Sridhar Vembu doesn't mince words. 'We Indians have had it far easier,' he wrote in a powerful post on X. 'I am not saying 'easy' in absolute terms, but compared to what the Chinese endured, it was much easier. We need to keep this perspective. The Chinese story is an inspiration.'His message: if India wants to rival China, it must embrace a much deeper transformation—one rooted in history, sacrifice, and self-belief.The Zoho founder isn't talking about GDP figures or quarterly earnings. He's urging a national mindset shift.'The Chinese never thought of it merely as 'developing the economy'. They thought of their national project as 'reviving their great civilisation',' Vembu explained. That, he said, is the core idea India must urgently absorb.For Vembu, the difference lies in what fuels a nation's growth. 'This crucial point is so easily missed in purely economic discourse,' he wrote. 'It is about the culture and the civilisational mindset as much as it is about technology and industry.'
In other words, a true national revival begins when people see themselves as heirs to something far older and grander than just a GDP graph.'We are not just growing the GDP and meeting quarterly numbers, as important as those may be in the short term,' Vembu said. 'Let's resolve to ourselves that what we are working on is nothing less than the revival of our great civilisation.'He believes this shift in thinking can build endurance and purpose. 'We must look beyond [our past], as hard as that is,' he wrote, referring to India's centuries of colonisation and invasion. 'Only then can the nation maintain the morale and endurance needed for long-term transformation.'To drive the point home, Vembu urged his followers to study China's modern history—its immense pain, missteps, and sheer resilience.
'Please read the history of China, of the last 100 years,' he said. He pointed to Mao Zedong's catastrophic Great Leap Forward between 1958 and 1962, when millions perished amid forced collectivisation, backyard steel furnaces, and mass starvation. 'About 30 million people perished as they killed landlords and intellectuals and the poor starved to death.'
He also cited the Cultural Revolution (1966–76), when schools were shut and patriotic citizens were purged as 'capitalist roaders.' 'So much sorrow and heartbreak. So much human sacrifice to Maoist frenzy,' Vembu wrote. Despite all that, China rebuilt itself.'They survived all that and somehow revived their nation,' he said. Even Deng Xiaoping, architect of China's economic reforms, 'didn't have it easy at all' and barely survived three political purges.Vembu's point? India's challenges pale in comparison. But without matching China's will and long-term clarity, it risks remaining stuck in cycles of half-hearted growth.Vembu's critique isn't just philosophical—it's grounded in the reality of India's tech sector, especially the Indian IT services model.After India's biggest software exporters posted disappointing quarterly results, Vembu warned that the downturn isn't just cyclical, nor merely caused by AI or Donald Trump's new tariffs. Instead, it signals the start of a painful reset.'Our jobs came to depend on [inefficiencies],' he wrote bluntly. He argued that for decades, the global software industry thrived on bloated systems and an input-driven billing model. India, he said, inherited and amplified this dysfunction.'A two-person team can outperform a 20-person team,' he stressed. Yet, Indian firms kept hiring in bulk, simply because fixed dollar budgets and low per-capita costs allowed it.It's a model that rewards bloat over brilliance. 'Billing by staff-months removed the incentive to innovate or streamline,' he wrote.While many worry that AI will destroy jobs, Vembu sees it differently. AI, he said, brings only modest gains—for now. The deeper problem is that the industry was built on years of easy money, duplicated systems, and a fear-of-missing-out culture that justified spending without outcomes.Enterprise software became 'saturated,' he noted in an earlier post, due to 'easy VC, PE, and IPO money.' Companies layered on complexity and confusion, and Indian IT firms rode the wave.But that wave is receding.Vembu warned that the current 'funding drought' means the day of reckoning has arrived. Unlike in 2008, when central banks flooded the system with cash, there's no easy escape this time.Vembu urged the industry to challenge old assumptions. 'The next 30 years will look nothing like the last,' he wrote.He pointed to Indian banks as a model of lean, efficient tech adoption—forced to innovate without inflated budgets or Western-style bloat.The time has come, he believes, for India to stop being the back office of the world and start solving problems at home.One user on X echoed this sentiment, lamenting that 'generations of talent were sacrificed to function as backdoor offices for global giants.' They said this reliance undermined India's autonomy and leadership.Another user blamed the 'culture of jugaad,' calling it a barrier to true innovation and digital sovereignty. Vembu agreed.A third warned that with global cash flows drying up, not just tech—but finance, consulting, and other white-collar sectors—could face serious disruption.Yet another user highlighted a structural flaw in India's service model: revenue depends on billable hours. Efficiency, ironically, becomes the enemy. 'Engineering teams resist efficiency initiatives if they lead to reduced billable hours,' they observed.Despite the critique, Vembu's message is ultimately one of hope.India, he believes, is at the edge of a profound turning point—not just in industry, but in identity.This isn't about complaining over policy or corruption. 'We will not complain about this shortcoming or that bad tax policy,' Vembu wrote. 'We will not even complain too much about the corruption of our fallen political system.'Instead, it's about choosing to believe in something bigger—something ancient.'Let's resolve to ourselves that what we are working on is nothing less than the revival of our great civilisation,' he wrote. A call not just to work harder, but to dream longer.
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India Today
20 minutes ago
- India Today
Is the Indian dream of studying in the US over?
(NOTE: This article was originally published in the India Today issue dated June 16, 2025)A chill wind is blowing through the hallowed halls of American academia, a wind carrying uncertainty and dashing the hopes of aspiring international students, particularly tens of thousands from India. The Trump administration, in a series of abrupt and unsettling moves, has begun to dismantle the welcome mat for global talent. The decision to pause new student visa appointments at US embassies worldwide on May 27, including in India, has plunged countless young scholars into a state of anxious limbo. This pause, officially justified by the need to expand the scrutiny of applicants' social media activity, is no mere procedural tweak; it signals a profound Indian students who have meticulously planned their futures around the promise of an American education, the dream now seems to teeter precariously on the edge of an opaque and shifting policy landscape, forcing many to question if the United States remains a safe or stable choice for their ambitions. One only has to look at the numbers to understand the implications of what is unfolding. In the 2023-24 academic year, the US hosted a record 1.13 million international students. Indian students accounted for 331,602, or around 30 per cent, of them, up by 23 per cent from the year before, while Chinese enrolment fell 4 per cent amid political tensions. A majority of the Indians choose STEM (scitech, engineering, mathematics) fields—42.9 per cent opted for maths and computer science, 24.5 per cent engineering that year. This is the talent that has helped fuel America's robust start-up ecosystem. While there is no nationality-wise break-up, estimates are that one in four US billion-dollar start-ups was founded by a former international student; immigrants have also co-founded nearly two-thirds of America's top AI (artificial intelligence) What makes the Trump administration's decision even more confounding is that the US risks losing the big bucks Indian students bring. According to the Indian Student Mobility Report, 2023-24 by global student housing marketplace University Living, Indian students were projected to spend $17.4 billion in the US in 2025, $10.1 billion on academic expenses alone, another $4 billion on accommodation, and the remaining $3.3 billion on other living costs. This is up from the $10.5 billion spent in 2022. 'International students fund American universities and enrich their intellectual climate,' says Timothy Gibson, president of the Virginia Conference of the American Association of University Professors. 'If the administration continues to view them through a xenophobic lens, the US risks losing its standing as a global leader in science and research.' The Trump administration has also put a freeze on several federal grants and funding programmes that facilitate international scholarships and student exchanges, the Fulbright and Gilman scholarship programmes among them. Another area of concern is the potential restrictions on the Optional Practical Training (OPT) programme, which currently allows international STEM graduates to work in the US for up to three years. If the administration decides to limit or dismantle OPT, it would drastically reduce the opportunities for foreign graduates to gain practical work experience, jeopardising their career prospects and deterring future Subscribe to India Today Magazine HIGH ANXIETYadvertisementMary Gogoi, head of admissions at Delhi-based education counselling firm eduVelocity Global, says, 'All these developments have bred anxiety in international students, as well as among American universities that rely on this cohort for cultural diversity and financial sustainability.' Nothing illustrates this better than the case of a 24-year-old girl student, who does not wish to be named. Admitted into a US university for a master's in computer science with specialisation in AI, her visa application was rejected for no clear reason, forcing her to reapply. Keen on only the US as she finds it the best for research and innovation, she is thinking of deferring her course by a year if visas are not scheduled Trump administration's latest directive—to vet social media accounts before sanctioning a student visa—is also adding to the consternation. Of course, as Rohin Kapoor, partner, education and skilling at global consultancy firm BDO India, points out, social media vetting is not unique to the US; Australia and Canada, too, screen the social media posts of applicants. The current US policy also builds on social media checks introduced in 2019. Now, however, the State Department has said it will use 'all available information' to identify 'antisemitic activity', 'pro-jihadist' views or 'anti-American' sentiments. Charles H. Kuck, founding partner of Atlanta-based law firm Kuck Baxter, which specialises in immigration laws, explains what this means. 'Social media vetting has existed for years,' he says. 'But now artificial intelligence reviews all postings. This violates the core American values of free speech and personal liberty; yet, the administration shows little concern for those principles when it comes to foreigners.' Poorvi Chothani, managing partner at immigration law firm LawQuest, also sees a stark departure from earlier policy. 'Previously, checks were random or suspicion-based,' she says. 'Now they're mandatory for all student visas.'advertisementHowever, things aren't easy even for those who manage to secure visas. They face constant scrutiny: US agency Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) now wants students to show proof of full-time enrolment and perfect attendance, with deportation a looming consequence for any slip. Pablo S. Bose, professor of Geography and Geosciences and associate dean of research and graduate education at the University of Vermont, points out how Trump's crackdown is not restricted to new enrolments. The administration has revoked more than 300 visas, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio claiming the real figure may be in the thousands. Many of the students are targeted for presumed links to pro-Palestinian activism or alleged online support for 'terrorism'. Another 5,000 students have been expelled for minor infractions, ranging from underage drinking to traffic these measures affect who universities can host, whether current students can stay, and if graduates can work,' says Bose. 'The confusion and anxiety created have already had disastrous consequences.' The mood of many Indian students enrolled in the US is one of fear and extreme caution, with most keeping a low profile and staying informed. Lubaina Kapasi, 19, a sophomore at the Savannah College of Arts, a private university in Georgia, has so far not felt the full brunt of the clampdown on international students compared to those studying in some public universities in the US. Yet, she says, 'It doesn't mean we are fully in the clear. International students, especially from India, give up a lot financially and personally to study here. To then be faced with policy uncertainty and visa complications feels like a nightmare.' THE POLITICS OF ITThe Trump administration's clampdown on international students has been cast as a matter of national security, yet it reeks of a very different, cultural, battlefield. It stems from a desire to police campus discourse, with the administration viewing many universities as excessively 'left-wing' and failing to curb pro-Palestinian activism, which it flatly equates with antisemitism or support for terrorism. Officially, the White House insists the heightened vetting is a 'commonsense measure' to ensure newcomers pose no threat. 'It's a privilege, not a right, to study in the United States,' says White House spokesperson Anna Kelly. The State Department says every visa decision is 'a national security decision'. Trump has suggested that foreign student enrolment at Harvard be capped at 15 per cent from the current 31 per cent, claiming that Americans are losing out. J.D. Vance, his vice president, shares the sentiment, arguing that foreign students 'take spots from American kids'.It is not fooling anyone. Gibson says this is less about immigration, more about tightening controls on universities. 'Trump views colleges with suspicion. The knowledge they produce challenges his worldview,' he says. Issues like climate change and Covid-19 exemplify this, where scientific findings trump Trump's claims. Prof. Rajiv Sethi of Barnard College, Columbia University, recalls how Vance once declared that American conservatism would triumph only by capturing or dismantling elite Mukherjee, Jerome L. Greene clinical professor of law, and director, Immigrants' Rights Clinic, Columbia Law School, says the policy 'seems driven by cruelty, white nationalism and racism', with visa decisions now vulnerable to prejudice arising out of race, religion and political views. This security narrative has expanded to include counter-terrorism and antisemitism. The Department of Homeland Security warns that 'antisemitic activity on social media' and 'harassment of Jewish individuals' may affect migrant visas. Visa eligibility is now linked to the administration's stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It is also part of a wider ideological assault on universities deemed too liberal. Harvard, for instance, is accused by the Trump administration of fostering antisemitism and promoting diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) policies, which it sees as racist (see column Anatomy of a Standoff). Columbia University, on the other hand, risks losing its accreditation over claims it violated the civil rights of its Jewish students. LIMITED LEGAL RECOURSEAs international students, particularly from India, navigate the uncertainties thrown up by the Trump administration's new visa policies, they are exploring the legal avenues available to them, the specifics of the expanded social media vetting, and support structures. For individual students, the financial stakes are steep. B.K. Shukla of The Ivy League Edge, a college application consultancy, notes that university applications alone cost Rs 10,000-15,000 per institution, while education consultants typically charge Rs 5-6 lakh. Many students have already paid tuition fees or booked housing, sums that may not be refundable. The real blow, though, Shukla says, is in the opportunity cost. 'Losing a year means forgoing a degree, work experience and an early start to a career.' The risk is not just in the money, but also the Indian students whose visa applications have been put on indefinite hold, direct legal avenues seem severely limited. The US Supreme Court has ruled that the State Department is immune from lawsuits over the denial of a visa abroad under what is called the consular non-reviewability doctrine. 'When a person requests a visa for a country, it is a request to that government, not a right,' says BDO's Kapoor. 'A case filed in an Indian court will have no locus standi to direct a foreign government. The only recourse for students is to send a petition to the US embassy in India requesting an update on their visa status or seeking expedited processing.' Kuck offers some practical advice: 'Students can better prepare for an interview, ascertain the underlying reason for the denial, and bring evidence and verbal description of how to overcome that initial decision.' Indian consultants also recommend students erase even mild political posts or join 'safe' groups on social though the Trump administration's new student visa measures will primarily affect individuals and institutions, they may also have diplomatic reverberations. The Indian ministry of external affairs (MEA) has publicly urged the US to 'ensure timely issuance of student visas based on merit'. MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal, while acknowledging that 'a visa is a sovereign right of a country', emphasised this appeal and reiterated that 'the welfare of Indian students abroad remains a top priority for the Government of India'. A GLIMMER OF HOPEEven as the clouds of uncertainty hover, many see it as a temporary reset rather than a permanent barrier for the world's best and brightest. Vibha Kagzi, a Harvard alumna and founder of foreign education consultancy believes the 'American dream' is merely being recalibrated, not extinguished. 'Historically, policy shifts in international education have corrected themselves, especially with strong pushback from universities, industry leaders and lawmakers who value global talent,' she says. She also believes the US still offers unmatched advantages in scale, research funding, alumni networks and global Chaturvedi of study abroad platform Leverage Edu, thinks likewise. 'This isn't a shutdown,' he says, 'but a systemic reset in how the US engages with global talent. America has always bounced back, and these cyclical shifts often create more inclusive and outcome-focused systems.' Shukla believes top-tier universities will remain largely unaffected. 'The crackdown seems aimed at filtering those who misuse admissions at obscure institutions just to settle in the US,' he says. 'For highly skilled roles, like data analysis or cybersecurity, US still needs international talent.'There are also those who think the new vetting process of international student visas will improve immigration screening. University Living founder and CEO Saurabh Arora says, 'Scrutiny of social media handles, email addresses and phone numbers from applicants over the past five years will better verify identities, prevent fraud and ensure a safe environment for living in the US.' Aman Singh of GradRight, an agency that guides students on finding suitable colleges and funding, believes legitimate applications will continue to be processed. 'Students actively stoking anti-US sentiment may face trouble, and new vetting steps could slow decisions,' he notes. 'Yet, with sophisticated AI tools parsing global chatter, delays are unlikely to be drastic.' ALTERNATIVES TO AMERICAIn the long run, the Trump administration's visa clampdown threatens not just foreign students, but also the economic lifeblood of higher education in the US and its innovative edge. Many universities, especially those outside the Ivy League, depend on full-paying foreign students to subsidise domestic education. A drop in enrolment would plug this crucial revenue stream. Indian students are already exploring backup plans. They are considering deferring admissions, or looking at alternative countries. Bengaluru-based Nishant (name changed), who will complete his BTech in electronics engineering next May, is among those reconsidering their choices. 'People who have already finished their master's [in the US] still haven't found jobs,' he says. 'Is it worth it then to spend so much in the US when places like Germany offer more subsidised tuition?'Enrolment patterns of Indian students reflect the shift. Between 2023 and 2024, Germany saw a 49 per cent rise in Indian students, from 23,296 to 34,702, as per a response by Union minister of state of education Sukanta Majumdar in Parliament. Kalpesh Banker of EduShine Search Partners, an education strategy consulting firm, lists the advantages of other destinations. 'Canada has friendly visa policies and post-study work permits, Australia and the UK offer strong research and shorter courses. Germany, Hong Kong, Singapore and the UAE, too, are rising education hubs, with low fees, cultural diversity and robust facilities.'Meanwhile, the Trump administration's crackdown on international students signals more than just bureaucratic tinkering; it portends a potential reordering of America's relationship with global talent. Cloaked in the garb of national security, a legitimate concern for any country, these policies are sowing confusion and fear, eroding the very advantages that have underpinned American academic and innovative pre-eminence. A recalibration is indeed in order: one balancing security with openness and reaffirming the value of international students. Else the US could squander its role as a magnet for the world's brightest.—with Ajay SukumaranMust Watch
Time of India
40 minutes ago
- Time of India
Cellular IoT module shipments up by 32% on-year in India in 1Q25: Counterpoint
NEW DELHI: The cellular Internet of Things (IoT) module shipments in India grew by 32% year-on-year in Q1 2025, higher than the broader market, driven by the Central government's smart metering initiative , Counterpoint Research said in a report released Thursday. Under the Revamped Distribution Sector Scheme (RDSS), the Narendra Modi-led government has envisaged the installation of 250 million prepaid smart meters nationwide, in a bid to help distribution companies (DISCOMs) improve their financial and operational efficiencies. The scheme has an outlay of ₹1.5 lakh crore. According to a Ministry of Power statement released in January last year, 19.79 lakh prepaid smart meters had been installed by then. Meanwhile, Counterpoint said the global cellular IoT modules were up 16% year-on-year in the January-March quarter of 2025, primarily driven by strong demand in India, China, and Latin America for smart metering, point-of-sale, and asset tracking applications. 'China reinforced its lead in the global cellular IoT module market with 19% YoY growth, driven by 5G and Cat 1 bis adoption across POS, asset tracking, industrial, and automotive applications. India and Latin America are following suit, capitalising on affordable connectivity to digitise utilities and tracking applications,' said Principal Analyst Tina Lu. In contrast, North America and parts of APAC declined due to muted demand and macroeconomic headwinds.' According to the market tracker, 5G emerged as the fastest-growing technology, surging 37% year-on-year, driven by growth in the router/consumer premises equipment (CPE) and automotive segments, especially in China. By contrast, 4G Cat 1 bis is becoming the 'de facto' standard for mass-market IoT deployments, with its shipments rising 35% year-on-year. The technology, it said, is ideal for high-volume, low-complexity applications such as asset tracking and metering, and is disrupting legacy IoT strategies across multiple verticals. Quectel, China Mobile, and Fibocom led in terms of volumes with a share of 37%, 10%, and 8%, respectively. Sunsea and Lierda followed in third and fourth ranks, with a 7% share each, as per Counterpoint data. Among the top five, China Mobile's shipments grew the highest at 77% year-on-year in Q1 2025. Counterpoint, however, cautioned that with declining average selling prices (ASPs) for modules and chipsets, vendors are under increasing price pressure from Chinese competitors, leading to shrinking margins. This is compelling many brands to shift focus to more profitable segments, it added. 'Qualcomm maintained its top position, followed by ASR and UNISOC. ASR has nearly doubled its market share over the years, driven by its dominant presence in the 4G Cat 1 bis chipset segment,' said Research Analyst Hanumant Pawar.
Mint
an hour ago
- Mint
Anant Raj, DLF, Sobha fall up to 3% as realty stocks resume losing streak
Real Estate stocks in focus today: Domestic real estate stocks witnessed another round of selling pressure in Thursday's trading session, as the Nifty Realty index tumbled 2% to end the day at 1,006, extending its decline for the fourth straight session amid weak global cues and profit booking. All 10 constituents of the index ended the session in the red, with Anant Raj emerging as the top laggard, falling 3% to ₹ 556 apiece. It was followed by Phoenix Mills, Godrej Properties, DLF, Brigade Enterprises, Macrotech Developers, and Sobha, all of which declined over 2%. Real estate stocks had seen a stellar rally last week following the RBI's deeper-than-expected repo rate cut of 50 basis points and an unexpected CRR cut of 100 basis points. The move boosted investor sentiment, as lower interest rates potentially spur residential demand across major cities and ease borrowing costs for developers, aiding project financing and expansion. Following the RBI's double bonanza on Friday, the Nifty Realty index jumped 5%, emerging as the top-performing sector. In fact, the stocks had already been on a strong upward trajectory ahead of the RBI MPC meeting, driven by expectations of a continued rate-easing cycle, a trend that only accelerated after the policy announcement. From its April lows, the index has rallied 31%, making the real estate sector one of the biggest turnaround stories of 2025. However, the sharp gains may prompt investors to book profits, contributing to the ongoing decline in stock prices. Indian stock markets came under significant selling pressure in today's session, with broad-based declines triggered by weak global cues that weighed on investor sentiment, sending the Nifty 50 and Sensex down over 1%. Tensions between the US and Iran flared up after recent media reports suggested that the US is preparing a partial evacuation of personnel in the Middle East, following Iran's threat to strike US bases if nuclear negotiations fail. Further pressure came as US President Donald Trump announced plans to send formal letters to key trading partners within the next one to two weeks, outlining unilateral tariffs aimed at pressuring countries into trade agreements. Despite the tough rhetoric, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled a potential extension of the current 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for countries showing 'good faith' in ongoing trade talks. While Trump said a framework on tariff rates had been reached to revive the fragile trade truce with China, the lack of specifics kept markets on edge, and China has yet to officially confirm any details about the trade deal. Even as the framework is being finalized, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Wednesday that U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports would remain at current levels. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
