Why many Chinese foreign affairs analysts reacted critically to PM Modi's likely China visit

Indian Express

a day ago

On June 30, US President Donald Trump first threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Indian imports, over India's oil purchases from Russia amid the Ukraine war.
Soon, there were speculations in the Indian media that Prime Minister Narendra Modi was likely to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) leaders' meet in Tianjin, China. The grouping includes nine member nations, including India, China, Pakistan and Russia.
A possible reason for the visit, according to some Chinese analysts, was India seemingly hedging its options in global affairs. They called the move, if true, liang tou chi – or, 'to have the cake and eat it too.'
Significantly, as soon as Washington escalated the trade offensive with an extra 25% tariff on certain imports, pushing the total levy to 50%, Beijing officially welcomed PM Modi's visit to attend the SCO summit. However, the news has drawn sharp reactions in China over the visit, which could happen after a seven-year gap.
The official response in China
PM Modi last visited China in 2018 on two occasions. First, in April for the India-China Informal Summit at Wuhan, and later in June for the SCO Heads of State meeting in Qingdao.
This time, China's state-run Xinhua news agency and the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson have welcomed the visit, even before an official announcement from New Delhi. The Chinese Communist Party's English tabloid, Global Times, in a recent editorial, even criticised Western media reports interpreting the visit as a 'hedge against' the US, saying the countries had multiple common areas of cooperation.
The other view, led by skeptics
Those more suspicious of India's 'playing both sides' diplomacy in China have warned their government to remain vigilant. In a rare public defiance of a government decision, a reader wrote on a Chinese news website: 'India's 'allying with the US to resist China' and 'allying with China to deal with the US' — one is for 'resistance' and the other is for 'coping'. Can this be called 'maintaining a balance between China and the United States'?'
Scholars in China have offered several explanations for such critical views:
First, with economic and trade relations between India and the United States at a low point, India's readjustment of its relationship with China is seen as a key counterbalancing measure. For years, the US has also sought to develop closer ties with India, in part to counter China in Asia. But Chinese analysts are questioning how far India can truly go in improving relations with China in this context.
Second, they are questioning that if the visit is not just a result of the US factor, will India a) agree to hold a summit meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the SCO meeting sidelines; and b) display a genuine commitment to go an extra mile in readjusting its 'leaning on one side' foreign policy towards the US.
Third, on the same day as Trump's tariffs and news of the SCO visit came out, Trump announced a 'major breakthrough' in US-Russia negotiations. He is also now scheduled to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin. China's strategic affairs community, doubtful of India's commitment, is asking if Trump and Putin strike a 'deal' on Ukraine, India buying Russian oil may no longer be a problem. Will PM Modi still travel to China for the SCO summit?
Simply, there remains a significant sense of distrust in China towards India, which is not exactly a new development. From the days of the Cold War, the Chinese establishment has found India's non-alignment policy to be suspicious, often believing that it is acting on behalf of the US under the guise of an autonomous foreign policy. With the collapse of the USSR and India's economic liberalisation, its deepening engagement with the US has added to this view in China.
View of limited gains from PM Modi's visit
Scholars in China have also questioned India's commitments in both the SCO and BRICS (including Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), stating that PM Modi attended just three of the last ten SCO leaders' meetings.
They have also pointed to the June meeting in Qingdao for the SCO Defence Ministers, where Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh accused Pakistan of supporting cross-border terrorism, and refused to sign the SCO joint statement.
Wang Yiwei, an influential International Relations scholar and professor at Beijing's People's University, has gone as far as to say that New Delhi actually did violate Western sanctions on Russia. 'The nature of China and India is different. China-Russia economic and trade relations have lasted for many years, but India has significantly increased its production of Russian oil after the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war, which is regarded as a violation of Western sanctions. Moreover, India also resells Russian oil to Europe,' he wrote.
Shift under Trump
An overwhelming sense in China is that India has always pursued a policy of playing both sides. For example, on India being a member of the SCO and the US-led QUAD security dialogue (with Australia and Japan), a Chinese scholar cited PM Modi's previous remarks: 'India has never considered itself bound to a single security alliance.'
Some scholars now believe that under Trump 2.0, this will change. Today, the relationship between New Delhi and Washington is undergoing major adjustments, with significant differences on many issues, including trade, diplomacy, and energy.
Likewise, there are many pressing issues between China and India which not only limit the depth of China-India economic and trade cooperation but also damage mutual understanding and trust. Some of these include tensions at the border, 'reviewing' and suppressing Chinese capital, restricting visas for Chinese technical personnel, no direct flights between the two countries, India imposing numerous barriers on Chinese investments, etc.
Reflecting the Chinese government's view, the GT editorial puts a condition for Modi's visit translating into improved bilateral relations, saying 'We welcome Prime Minister Modi to visit China with genuine intentions to improve bilateral ties…'
At the same time, a WeChat social media commentary declared India a 'joke,' saying Trump's 'tariff terrorism' has left the country 'powerless' and without bargaining chips, reflecting the divergent views.
Hemant Adlakha teaches Chinese at the Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi. He is also Vice Chairperson and an Honorary Fellow, Institute of Chinese Studies (ICS), Delhi.