New heights for China's arms diplomacy in South Asia
This month, Breaking Defense reported that Pakistan confirmed China's offer of 40 fifth-generation Shenyang J-35 stealth fighters, KJ-500 AEW&C aircraft and HQ-19 air defense systems.
The deal was first leaked in December 2024 and now publicly credited by Islamabad to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's diplomacy.
Also known as the FC-31, the J-35 is developed for both China's air force and navy and made its debut at Airshow China 2024. It features stealth shaping similar to that of the US F-35 Lightning II. Deliveries to Pakistan are expected within the next few months.
The announcement follows a separate US$4.6 billion agreement between Pakistan and Azerbaijan, in which Baku will procure 40 JF-17 fighter jets co-manufactured by Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) and China's Chengdu Aircraft Corporation (CAC).
China's defense exports to Islamabad signal deeper strategic alignment amid growing regional competition. As Pakistan pursues advanced capabilities, the deal highlights China's growing presence in global arms sales, particularly among states seeking alternatives to Western defense suppliers.
Defense Security Asia notes in an article this month that the J-35, HQ-19 and KJ-500 represent a considerable leap in Pakistan's air defense capabilities.
According to the report, the J-35 fifth-generation fighter armed with PL-17 missiles boasting a range of over 400 kilometers enables Pakistan to target high-value Indian aerial assets from beyond visual range.
It also states that the HQ-19 system, dubbed the 'Chinese THAAD,' is designed for the high-altitude interception of intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) and hypersonic threats up to 150 kilometers above the ground, utilizing hit-to-kill technology and promising exoatmospheric defense with tracking radars that reach 1,000 kilometers.
Meanwhile, Defense Security Asia mentions that the KJ-500 provides 360-degree radar coverage with its active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, tracking up to 100 targets over a 470-kilometer range while coordinating air operations through advanced electronic intelligence.
China's transfer of interoperable systems reflects its approach to systems warfare, as explained by Michael Dahm in a May 2025 article for Air & Space Forces Magazine.
According to Dahm, one of the most essential takeaways from the April 2025 Kashmir clash is how Pakistan integrated its Chinese-origin weapons and air defenses against India, forming an effective kill chain.
Dahm says that Pakistan's J-10 downing of a prized Indian Rafale jet says more about the quality of intangible factors between the opposing sides, such as system-of-systems integration, training and tactics, rather than the capabilities of either aircraft.
Azerbaijan's decision to purchase JF-17 jets co-produced by China and Pakistan marks a significant departure from its traditional arms purchases from Russia.
Paul Iddon notes in an April 2024 Business Insider article that while Russia has previously marketed the Su-30SM, Su-35 and MiG-25 fighters to Azerbaijan, the former's arms exports to the latter ceased in 2019, creating a vacuum for other arms exporters, such as Turkey, Pakistan, and China, to fill.
In the same article, Federico Borsari notes that, as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions, Russia's arms exports have dropped as much as 64%, according to 2024 data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
Borsari also notes that the poor performance of Russian aircraft in the Russia-Ukraine war may have prompted Azerbaijan to reconsider its arms purchases from Russia.
Highlighting the political aspect of Azerbaijan's decision to purchase JF-17 jets, Sebastien Roblin notes in the same article that Russia's unreliability as a supplier, along with Western concerns over Azerbaijan's human rights record and potential future conflicts with Armenia, has made Turkey, Pakistan and China ideal partners.
In terms of capability, Roblin says the JF-17 is a substantial upgrade over Azerbaijan's Soviet-era MiG-29 jets, with its newer electronics and the PL-15 missile possibly giving it an edge over Armenia's Russian-made Su-30SM fighters.
China's arms sales to Pakistan and Azerbaijan tie into its larger military-economic interests. Jake Rinaldi mentions in a November 2024 article for the US Army War College that China's arms exports are driven by the need to protect its economic interests, gain influence in conflict zones, enhance the capabilities of its partners, build diplomatic relationships and offset research and development costs.
Importantly, Pakistan and Azerbaijan are part of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a global land-and-sea infrastructure project that aims to offset the latter's 'Malacca Dilemma,' a strategic weakness wherein most of its trade and fuel imports passes through the narrow waterway, leaving it vulnerable to a US blockade in the event of a conflict.
In line with that, Mohit Choudhary mentions in a February 2023 article for the Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs that as China's sea lanes of communication (SLOCs) straddle the Indian Ocean, China leverages economic, diplomatic and security influence in a region fraught with fragile states such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.
Choudhary notes that India views the Indian Ocean as its sphere of influence, and China's increasing presence in the region through dual-use port infrastructure and arms exports heightens India's sense of insecurity.
Likewise, Emil Avdaliani mentions in an April 2025 South China Morning Post (SCMP) article that China's ambitions in West Asia and the Black Sea region have grown in the past years, with the strategic goal of developing the Middle Corridor, a trade route that connects Europe and China via Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, requiring significant economic and security investment.
Avdaliani states that while Russia remains a significant source of military technology for Central Asia and, by extension, the Caucasus, the space for Russian arms exports is narrowing while China opens its defense industry, thereby eroding Russia's regional sphere of influence.
China isn't just selling weapons. It is building alliances, projecting power and rewriting the rules of the global arms game. It is transforming arms sales into strategic tools of influence — building alliances, displacing rivals and reshaping the rules of power projection from the Indian Ocean to the Black Sea.
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