Warren Hammond's Personal View: EUR/USD at 1.50 – The Price of Reckoning
In March 2016, The Personal View, released 'The USA – The Next 18 Years', and I warned of an anticipated period of deep structural transformation in the foundational architecture of American finance. My decade-long 2016 forecast continues to gather relevance:
'For far too long the USA, and others, have been locked into a pattern and habit of high-flying, risky investment and consumption, the very source of the 2008 meltdown…the USA has not dealt with its obsession with debt and risky investment…Ultimately, over 18 years, the results are very positive as structural reform is implemented.'
We now approach a scenario where EUR/USD at 1.50 is inevitable, as the consequence of sustained U.S. fiscal excess, speculative momentum, and monetary distortion. It's about a reassessment of the value and credibility of the U.S. dollar itself. And yes, there is a volatile, disorderly glide path to 1.50. It doesn't happen in the afternoon. See The Personal View: 'Positioning for the Market Turmoil Ahead (2025–2028)'.
This forecast is part of a broader theme: the idea that when debt-driven consumption and high-risk investment are treated as the nectar of the gods, the price is losing one's head before reform arrives.
As the Panic of 1907, led to the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, today's challenges are forcing the system toward structural overhaul.
Yes, the U.S. issues debt in its currency, and it can print to meet obligations. However, this monetary flexibility comes at a cost. The real price emerges through dollar devaluation, inflationary pressure, and the erosion of monetary credibility.
We are witnessing a fiery, necessary transformation, a phase where the financial status quo is washed away, creating space for reassessment, recalibration, and redefinition of the institutions at the core of the U.S. system.
The Federal Reserve, designed for a different era, increasingly outmoded, faces a world it wasn't built to manage. Its role and structure are being reformed in time. The pillars of U.S. post-war dominance, cheap capital, endless leverage, and default intervention, are being sanctioned by investors.
In 2016, The Personal View warned: that indulgence in debt-driven speculation and consumption cannot persist without profound consequences. In 2025, this reform is no longer merely my forecast. It's underway. The U.S. financial landscape is being deeply overhauled. What emerges will reshape domestic markets, global capital, reserve structures, and strategic influence. See The Personal View 'Megatrends & The Future of Capital'.
This isn't another cycle. It's the dawn of a new financial epoch.
What's your take on the dollar's future and the road to EUR/USD 1.50? Join the conversation below.
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