US Fed rate cut in September hinges on labour market and inflation: UBI Report
While the market anticipates some monetary easing later this year, the report mentioned that Fed has adopted a cautious and data-dependent stance in the face of growing uncertainty around tariffs and fiscal policy.
It stated 'While a rate cut in September remains possible, it hinges heavily on labour market softness and the inflation trajectory'.
The report also noted that the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates on hold for now, awaiting greater clarity on the evolving global tariff landscape and fiscal developments.
Fed officials, in their recent public remarks, signalled a balanced yet cautious tone, reflecting the challenges of managing inflation risks while being prepared to support the economy if it weakens.
John Williams, President of the New York Fed, highlighted that there is a 'non-negligible' chance that rates could return to zero, pointing to long-term downside risks in the economy.
Meanwhile, Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Mary Daly indicated openness to rate cuts later in 2025. Daly even mentioned the possibility of two rate reductions but emphasized that any policy move would be careful, data-driven, and devoid of political influence.
However, not all officials are aligned. Alberto Musalem, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, urged patience, warning that it is too early to determine whether recent inflationary pressures stemming from new tariffs will be temporary or more persistent.
The report said 'their remarks reflect a Fed navigating between guarding against persistent inflation and remaining ready to ease policy if the economic outlook softens'.
Meanwhile, oil prices rose sharply last week, adding pressure on global inflation and the Indian Rupee. Brent crude, which opened at USD 67.64 per barrel on July 7, surged to USD 70.71 before ending the week around USD 71.11 on July 14.
The jump in prices was driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, including the US sending Patriot air defence systems to Ukraine and the European Union preparing an 18th sanctions package on Russia. These actions raised fears of tighter global oil supplies.
However, gains were capped by Saudi Arabia exceeding its OPEC+ output quota and concerns that new US tariffs on goods from the EU and Mexico may hurt global growth and oil demand.
Looking ahead, the report mentioned that the market watchers will closely monitor any new developments around the August 1 tariff deadline, which could influence both inflation trends and the Fed's policy stance in the coming months. (ANI)
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Cision Canada
5 hours ago
- Cision Canada
Investor Webinar
MONTREAL, July 20, 2025 /CNW/ - SYDNEY, Australia – July 21, 2025 Patriot Battery Metals Inc. (the "Company" or "Patriot") (TSX: PMET) (ASX: PMT) (OTCQX: PMETF) (FSE: R9GA) is pleased to advise that Ken Brinsden, the Company's President, CEO and Managing Director, will host a live investor webinar tomorrow, Tuesday 22 July 2025 Australia/Monday 21 July 2025 Montreal to discuss the maiden Mineral Resource Estimate for caesium announced today for the Rigel and Vega zones at its 100%-owned Shaakichiuwaanaan Property (the " Property" or " Project") located in the Eeyou Istchee James Bay region of Quebec Mr Brinsden will update investors on the significance of this announcement and outline the significance of the caesium discovery, while also taking the opportunity to provide an update on the lithium-only Definitive Feasibility Study for CV5 Shaakichiuwaanaan and other upcoming milestones. Investors and shareholders will have the opportunity to submit live questions via the online Q&A webinar portal. Alternatively, questions can be submitted in advance via email to the Company's Investor Relations Manager – Olivier Caza-Lapointe. Registration Details A recording of the webinar will be released through Patriot's website and social media platforms for the benefit of investors in North American time zones. " KEN BRINSDEN" Kenneth Brinsden, President, CEO, & Managing Director Olivier Caza-Lapointe Head, Investor Relations – North America T: +1 (514) 913-5264 E: [email protected] SOURCE Patriot Battery Metals Inc.
Vancouver Sun
19 hours ago
- Vancouver Sun
The Doug Ford Doctrine: 'We really have to flex our muscles'
Ontario Premier Doug Ford is hosting Canada's premiers in Muskoka starting Monday at a Council of the Federation summer gathering. Premiers of the 13 provinces and territories can look forward to enjoying Alberta-bred and Ontario-fed beef on the grill at the Ford family cottage. They will have a special guest: Prime Minister Mark Carney. 'For the first time ever that I can remember,' Ford says, 'the prime minister is invited. That would have never happened with Trudeau, but it's happening under Mark Carney. And he's going to be welcomed with open arms.' Rather than the premiers getting together 'to bitch and complain about the federal government,' Ford chuckles, 'we get to present it right to him (Carney) as he's sitting around the dinner table and we're talking to him.' Start your day with a roundup of B.C.-focused news and opinion. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder. The next issue of Sunrise will soon be in your inbox. Please try again Interested in more newsletters? Browse here. 'The access is phenomenal,' Ford says of his own relationship with the PM, 'I'll message him, he gets right back to me. It's all about communication and relationship-building. 'And, he's a very, very great business person,' Ontario's premier enthuses, listing off Carney's credentials (without a mention of potential conflicts of interest). 'He gets it,' Ford says. 'He's going to go in there and he's going to clean house in Ottawa, which is well overdue.' Figuring out how Team Canada will respond to U.S. President Donald Trump's declaration of a blanket 35 per cent tariff on goods imported from Canada as of Aug. 1 — on top of previously implemented tariffs on auto parts, steel, aluminum and copper — will no doubt be the premiers' top priority in cottage country next week. 'Elbows up or elbows down? What's the strategy, now?' I ask Ford in a recent call. 'We have to negotiate through strength,' Ford responds, 'and we really have to flex our muscles and make sure President Trump hears us.' 'Because in closed-door meetings and in our phone calls with governors — and they pull a lot of weight, I heard that from (U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard) Lutnick — Republicans don't want this,' Ford reports 'Democrats obviously don't want this, and Republicans don't want it. But they're terrified to say anything publicly,' he says. Only a few U.S. senators have spoken up, Ford adds, 'and God bless them.' Carney is advancing several strategies — promoting free trade within Canada; negotiating a security and trade pact with America, in good faith; and at the same time, forging strategic partnerships with the EU to beef up security and defence alliances and boost trade and economic security. This week, Carney announced measures to protect the nation's steel industry, including guarding against foreign steel entering Canada to bypass Trump's tariffs. Breaking down trade barriers between provinces is a strategy Ontario has embraced; the province has signed memorandums of understanding with all provinces except Quebec, B.C. and Newfoundland. And Ford sees other cards to be played, other ways to pressure the Trump administration for a fair trade deal. 'I've been very transparent with Secretary Lutnick, we're going to start on-shoring everything,' Ford says. 'We're going to on-shore the steel beams, the I-beams. We have more cranes in the sky in Toronto and the GTA than their top 10 cities combined.' 'We're going to on-shore the aluminum cans, the beer cans … to make sure we don't have to see a tariff of 25 per cent on the aluminum going down (to the U.S.), they convert it, print it, and send it back up (to Canada) with another 25 per cent; that's 50 per cent.' Ford's government is giving incentives to companies — to turn aluminum into cans, produce steel I-beams, and manufacture steel rails used in transit projects. This strategy tracks with Carney's recent commitment to rely more on Canadian steel for Canadian projects. 'Canada buys more off the U.S. than China, than Japan, than Korea, U.K. and France combined,' Ford elaborates. 'We're their largest customer, and yes, they're our largest customer. But Ontario alone employs nine million Americans who wake up every morning to build a widget or provide a service to Ontario alone.' '(Americans) are going to feel the pressure,' Ford says. 'They're going to feel the pressure when Americans start losing their jobs because we're going to start on-shoring everything, and once that happens, I told Lutnick, it's hard to turn that tap off.' And, Ford continues, Canada can leverage its supplies of critical resources. American governors, both Republicans and Democrats, tell Ford the same thing: 'There are two things they're interested in: our nuclear energy and our critical minerals.' Repeating his well-worn adage — 'Canada is not the threat; China is the real threat' — Ford explains how China's lock on 90 per cent of the world's critical minerals makes Ontario's resources in the Ring of Fire all the more essential to Americans. 'And we don't believe in rip and ship,' Ford assures me, 'we're going to make sure that we mine it with Ontario workers, we're going to refine it here in Ontario with Ontario workers, and then we'll have the option of shipping it around the world.' Ford's also pitching a deep sea port to facilitate exports, in a couple of locations — one in Ontario, in Hudson's Bay, and one in Manitoba. 'It will wake up President Trump real quick,' Ford quips, 'if we start shipping it to our other allies around the world and not to him.' Ford is the premier of Ontario — it's his job to look out for that province's interests — but there's no question he's fully steeped in Team Canada spirits. 'We all have something that we're bringing to the table,' he assures me, repeatedly. 'The U.S. needs our high-grade nickel,' Ford asserts, 'to be used in the military, in aerospace, in manufacturing. It's no different from the aluminum, from Quebec, being shipped down there, or the potash or uranium from Saskatchewan, and obviously, the 4.3 million barrels of oil we ship down to the U.S. But we're going to diversify that and not rely on the U.S. Yes, we have one pipeline going west, but we need another one going west, east, north and south.' Ford is also effusive about the need to get rid of the tanker ban on the West Coast and revamp the impact assessment act. 'Those days are done. They're gone,' he says. 'We have to start moving forward and create the conditions for the rest of the world to look at investing in not just Ontario but other jurisdictions across Canada, from coast to coast to coast.' I moved from Ontario to Alberta in the early 1980s — a time when Alberta premier Peter Lougheed was struggling with prime minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau's National Energy Program — and can still recall the bitter disappointment of Ontario premier Bill Davis's unwillingness to support Alberta's interests. I admit to being impressed by Ford's visit to the recently concluded Calgary Stampede, and not just by his commitment to flip pancakes alongside Smith, whose griddle experience is legendary. Ontario's premier also inked two MOUs with Alberta, to advance freer trade between the provinces and publicly endorse mutually beneficial national-interest projects, including an oil pipeline from Alberta to Ontario (fabricated with Ontario steel). Although Ford's not sure if Carney will be specific about the nation-building projects selected to move forward, in the upcoming discussions around the table in Muskoka, he's optimistic provincial leaders — and their constituents — recognize this unique opportunity to move forward on national infrastructure projects. 'We're moving forward and we're going to see another $200 billion going into our economy, increase our GDP anywhere upwards to six per cent,' Ford says. He expects his fellow premiers will have to hop on this train. 'The residents of each province are going to demand that they get on that train as we're moving forward,' he says, 'because they want to prosper as well.' National Post Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark and sign up for our daily newsletter, Posted, here .
Canada News.Net
2 days ago
- Canada News.Net
Medvedev mocks Trump's threats as Kremlin stays defiant
MOSCOW, Russia: Brushing aside U.S. President Donald Trump's latest threat to impose steep sanctions on buyers of Russian exports unless Moscow agrees to a peace deal in Ukraine, former President Dmitry Medvedev called Trump's ultimatum a "theatrical" gesture and said it had no impact on Moscow's decisions. Trump, speaking from the Oval Office alongside NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on July 14, announced a new weapons package for Ukraine and threatened 100 percent tariffs on any country purchasing Russian exports—mainly crude oil—if a peace deal is not reached within 50 days. He also voiced frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin, calling him "a tough guy" but stopping short of labeling him "an assassin," a reference to former President Joe Biden's 2021 remark calling Putin "a killer." "Trump issued a theatrical ultimatum to the Kremlin," Medvedev wrote on X (formerly Twitter). "The world shuddered, expecting the consequences. Belligerent Europe was disappointed. Russia didn't care." The Kremlin has not officially responded to Trump's comments but reiterated on July 14 that the U.S. continues to arm Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russian state media emphasized battlefield gains and Ukrainian drone attacks that injured 18 people in Russia. Coverage of Trump's remarks on Russian television highlighted delays in the delivery of U.S. Patriot missile systems and concerns within the U.S. about escalating the war. Russia, which controls nearly one-fifth of Ukraine's territory, has repeatedly said it is open to peace—but only on its terms. Putin insists that a ceasefire can't be considered until a framework for peace is clearly outlined. European leaders and Ukrainian officials have expressed deep skepticism, urging Trump to abandon any attempts to reconcile with the Kremlin. In the U.S., a White House official said Trump is pushing for 100 percent tariffs on Russian goods and secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil unless peace is reached soon. A Senate bill with support from 85 senators would grant Trump authority to impose tariffs up to 500 percent on nations that support Russia economically, but Republican leaders are waiting for Trump's signal to proceed with a vote. Major buyers of Russian crude—China, India, and Turkey—could be significantly affected by such sanctions, though it remains unclear how they would respond. Russia currently exports around five million barrels of oil per day, making it the world's second-largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia. Russian newspaper Kommersant ran a front-page headline invoking Shakespeare's Julius Caesar, signaling disappointment in Trump: "Et tu, Trump – the main peacekeeper of the Ukrainian conflict joined the 'party of war.'" Despite the rhetoric, Trump told the BBC he still believes a peace deal is achievable and that he is "not done" with Putin.
