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Yahoo
37 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trump's nominee to oversee jobs, inflation data faces shower of criticism
WASHINGTON (AP) — The director of the agency that produces the nation's jobs and inflation data is typically a mild-mannered technocrat, often with extensive experience in statistical agencies, with little public profile. But like so much in President Donald Trump's second administration, this time is different. Trump has selected E.J. Antoni, chief economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation, to be the next commissioner at the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics. Antoni's nomination was quickly met with a cascade of criticism from other economists, from across the political spectrum. His selection threatens to bring a new level of politicization to what for decades has been a nonpartisan agency widely accepted as a producer of reliable measures of the nation's economic health. While many former Labor Department officials say it it unlikely Antoni will be able to distort or alter the data, particularly in the short run, he could change the currently dry-as-dust way it is presented. Antoni was nominated by Trump after the BLS released a jobs report Aug. 1 that showed that hiring had weakened in July and was much lower in May and June than the agency had previously reported. Trump, without evidence, charged that the data had been 'rigged' for political reasons and fired the then-BLS chair, Erika McEntarfer, much to the dismay of many within the agency. Antoni has been a vocal critic of the government's jobs data in frequent appearances on podcasts and cable TV. His partisan commentary is unusual for someone who may end up leading the BLS. For instance, on Aug. 4 — a week before he was nominated — Antoni said in an interview on Fox News Digital that the Labor Department should stop publishing the monthly jobs reports until its data collection processes improve, and rely on quarterly data based on actual employment filings with state unemployment offices. The monthly employment reports are probably the closest-watched economic data on Wall Street, and can frequently cause swings in stock prices. When asked at Tuesday's White House briefing whether the jobs report would continue to be released, press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the administration hoped it would be. 'I believe that is the plan and that's the hope,' Leavitt said. Leavitt also defended Antoni's nomination, calling him an 'economic expert' who has testified before Congress and adding that, 'the president trusts him to lead this important department.' Yet Antoni's TV and podcast appearances have created more of a portrait of a conservative ideologue, instead of a careful economist who considers tradeoffs and prioritizes getting the math correct. 'There's just nothing in his writing or his resume to suggest that he's qualified for the position, besides that he is always manipulating the data to favor Trump in some way,' said Brian Albrecht, chief economist at the International Center for Law and Economics. Antoni wrongly claimed in the last year of Biden's presidency that the economy had been in recession since 2022; called on the entire Federal Reserve board to be fired for not earning a profit on its Treasury securities holdings; and posted a chart on social media that conflated timelines to suggest inflation was headed to 15%. His argument that the U.S. was in a recession rested on a vastly exaggerated measure of housing inflation, based on newly-purchased home prices, to artificially make the nation's gross domestic product appear smaller than it was. 'This is actually maybe the worst Antoni content I've seen yet,' Alan Cole of the center-right Tax Foundation said on social media, referring to his recession claim. On a 2024 podcast, Antoni wanted to sunset Social Security payments for workers paying into the system, saying that 'you'll need a generation of people who pay Social Security taxes but never actually receive any of those benefits.' As head of the BLS, Antoni would oversee the release of the consumer price index by which Social Security payments are adjusted for inflation. Many economists share, to some degree, Antoni's concerns that the government's jobs data has flaws and is threatened by trends such as declining response rates to its surveys. The drop has made the jobs figures more volatile, though not necessarily less accurate over time. 'The stock market moves clearly based on these job numbers, and so people with skin in the game think it's telling them something about the future of their investments,' Albrecht said. 'Could it be improved? Absolutely.' Katharine Abraham, an economist at the University of Maryland who was BLS Commissioner under President Bill Clinton, said updating the jobs report's methods would require at least some initial investment. The government could use more modern data sources, she said, such as figures from payroll processing companies, and fill in gaps with surveys. 'There's an inconsistency between saying you want higher response rates and you want to spend less money,' she said, referring to the administration's proposals to cut BLS funding. Still, Abraham and other former BLS commissioners don't think Antoni, if confirmed, would be able to alter the figures. He could push for changes in the monthly press release and seek to portray the numbers in a more positive light. William Beach, who was appointed BLS commissioner by Trump in his first term and also served under Biden, said he is confident that BLS procedures are strong enough to prevent political meddling. He said he didn't see the figures himself until two days before publication when he served as commissioner. 'The commissioner does not affect the numbers,'' Beach said. 'They don't collect the data. They don't massage the data. They don't organize it." Regarding the odds of rigging the numbers, Beach said, 'I wouldn't put it at complete zero, but I'd put it pretty close to zero.'' It took about six months after McEntarfer was nominated in July 2023 for her to be approved. Antoni will likely face stiff opposition from Democrats, but that may not be enough to derail his appointment. Sen. Patty Murray, a senior Democrat from Washington, on Tuesday slammed Antoni as 'an unqualified right-wing extremist' and demanded that the GOP chairman of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, hold a confirmation hearing for him. ___ Associated Press Staff Writers Paul Wiseman and Stephen Groves contributed to this story. Christopher Rugaber And Josh Boak, The Associated Press
Yahoo
37 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trump Says He May Allow Lawsuit Against Powell Over Fed Renovation
(Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump said he is weighing a lawsuit against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over the renovation of the central bank's headquarters, a project whose cost overruns have drawn scrutiny. Trump in a social media post on Tuesday resumed his criticism of the Fed chair over the central bank's decision to hold interest rates steady and again hammered Powell over the renovation work. Sunseeking Germans Face Swiss Backlash Over Alpine Holiday Congestion New York Warns of $34 Billion Budget Hole, Biggest Since 2009 Crisis To Head Off Severe Storm Surges, Nova Scotia Invests in 'Living Shorelines' Five Years After Black Lives Matter, Brussels' Colonial Statues Remain For Homeless Cyclists, Bikes Bring an Escape From the Streets 'The damage he has done by always being Too Late is incalculable. Fortunately, the economy is sooo good that we've blown through Powell and the complacent Board,' Trump said. 'I am, though, considering allowing a major lawsuit against Powell to proceed because of the horrible, and grossly incompetent, job he has done in managing the construction of the Fed Buildings.' White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, when asked if the administration was considering suing the Fed chair over the renovation, responded 'that's what the president is saying.' 'He's considering a lawsuit,' she told reporters at a briefing later Tuesday, adding that she would not speak on the matter further. 'I will allow the president to do that himself.' Asked if a lawsuit would fix problems with the project, Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro in an interview Tuesday responded 'heck, yes.' 'I mean, look, it gets your attention. It's like, what is he doing there?,' Navarro said on Bloomberg Television's , accusing Powell of not paying attention to the cost of the work. The yield curve steepened after Trump's comments, with 10-year yields rebounding from the aftermath of Tuesday's consumer price index numbers and hitting a session high. Data released earlier Tuesday showed underlying inflation picked up in July, though prices of goods rose at a more muted pace, tempering concerns about tariff-driven price pressures and raising expectations for a Fed rate cut in September. The renovation work has become a flashpoint in Trump's pressure campaign against Powell and the central bank for not lowering borrowing costs and saw him tour the construction site last month in a rare presidential visit to the Fed's headquarters. That visit saw a brief detente between Trump and Powell and the president appearing to downplay some of his concerns over the work there. But that criticism resumed after Fed officials left interest rates unchanged in July, followed by a turbulent stretch in which Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after a report earlier this month that showed a weakening US jobs market. Trump has repeatedly called for Powell to resign. At times, he has mulled whether he should outright fire him before saying he would wait out his term to avoid delivering a shock to markets. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is running a search for a candidate to replace Powell when the chair's term is up in May with Trump expected to make his final announcement this fall, according to two administration officials. The president last week also seized on an earlier-than-expected opportunity to put his imprint on the central bank by tapping Stephen Miran, one of his top economic advisers, to serve as a Federal Reserve governor. Miran, who will need Senate confirmation, would only serve the expiring term of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, which ends in January, allowing Trump more time to search for a permanent replacement. --With assistance from Hadriana Lowenkron. (Updates with Navarro remarks in paragraphs 6-7) Bessent on Tariffs, Deficits and Embracing Trump's Economic Plan Why It's Actually a Good Time to Buy a House, According to a Zillow Economist The Social Media Trend Machine Is Spitting Out Weirder and Weirder Results Dubai's Housing Boom Is Stoking Fears of Another Crash A $340 Million New York Office Makeover Is Converting Boardrooms to Bedrooms ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
Los Angeles Times
39 minutes ago
- Los Angeles Times
U.S. stocks rally to records on hopes for cuts to interest rates
NEW YORK — The U.S. stock market rallied to records on Tuesday after data suggested inflation across the country was a touch better last month than economists expected. The Standard & Poor's 500 rose 1.1% to top its all-time high set two weeks ago. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 483 points, or 1.1%, and the Nasdaq composite jumped 1.4% to set its own record. Stocks got a lift from hopes that the better-than-expected inflation report will give the Federal Reserve leeway to cut interest rates at its next meeting in September. Lower rates would give a boost to investment prices and to the economy by making it cheaper for U.S. households and businesses to borrow to buy houses, cars or equipment. President Donald Trump has angrily been calling for cuts to help the economy, often insulting the Fed's chair personally while doing so. But the Fed has been hesitant because of the possibility that Trump's tariffs could make inflation much worse. Lowering rates would give inflation more fuel, potentially adding oxygen to a growing fire. That's why Fed officials have said they wanted to see more data come in about inflation before moving. Tuesday's report said U.S. consumers paid prices for groceries, gasoline and other costs of living that were overall 2.7% higher in July than a year earlier. That's the same inflation rate as June's, and it was below the 2.8% that economists expected. The report pushed traders on Wall Street to increase bets that the Fed will cut interest rates for the first time this year in September. They're betting on a 94% chance of that, up from nearly 86% a day earlier, according to data from CME Group. The Fed will receive one more report on inflation, as well as one more on the U.S. job market, before its next meeting, which ends Sept. 17. The most recent jobs report was a stunner, coming in much weaker than economists expected. Some economists warn that more twists and turns in upcoming data could make the Fed's upcoming decisions not so easy. Its twin goals are to get inflation to 2% while keeping the job market healthy. Helping one with interest rates, though, often means hurting the other. Even Tuesday's better-than-expected inflation report had some discouraging undertones. An underlying measure of inflation, which economists say does a better job of predicting where inflation may be heading, hit its highest point since early this year, noted Gary Schlossberg, market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. That helped cause some up-and-down swings for Treasury yields in the bond market. 'Eventually, tariffs can show up in varying degrees in consumer prices, but these one-off price increases don't happen all at once,' said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management. 'That will confound the Fed and economic commentators for months to come.' Other central banks around the world have been lowering interest rates, and Australia's on Tuesday cut for the third time this year. On Wall Street, Intel's stock rose 5.6% after Trump said its CEO has an 'amazing story,' less than a week after he had demanded Lip-Bu Tan's resignation. Circle Internet Group, the company behind the popular USDC cryptocurrency that tracks the U.S. dollar, climbed 1.3% despite reporting a larger loss for the latest quarter than analysts expected. It said its total revenue and reserve income grew 53% in its first quarter as a publicly traded company, which topped forecasts. On the losing side of Wall Street was Celanese, which sank 13.1% even though the chemical company delivered a better profit than expected. It said that customers in most of its markets continue to be challenged, and CEO Scott Richardson said that 'the demand environment does not seem to be improving.' Cardinal Health dropped 7.2% despite likewise reporting a stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. Its revenue fell short of forecasts, and analysts said the market's expectations were particularly high for the company after its stock had already soared 33.3% for the year coming into the day. Critics say the broad U.S. stock market is looking expensive after its surge from a bottom in April. That's putting pressure on companies to deliver continued growth in profit. All told, the S&P 500 rose 72.31 points to 6,445.76. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 483.52 to 44,458.61, and the Nasdaq composite jumped 296.50 to 21,681.90. In stock markets abroad, indexes edged up in China after Trump signed an executive order late Monday that delayed hefty tariffs on the world's second-largest economy by 90 days. The move was widely expected, and the hope is that it will clear the way for a possible deal to avert a dangerous trade war between the United States and China. Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped 2.1%, and South Korea's Kospi fell 0.5% for two of the world's bigger moves. In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.28% from 4.27% late Monday. The yield on the two-year Treasury, which more closely tracks expectations for the Fed, fell to 3.73% from 3.76%. Choe writes for the Associated Press.
