Battle For Bihar: Will Votes 2025 Herald A Political Shake-Up?
The Bihar Assembly Elections, slated for October-November 2025, promise to be a high-stakes contest that could change the matrix of the state's political dynamics. With a population of 13.07 crore and a history rooted in caste-based politics, Bihar remains a critical battleground for national and regional parties. The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), faces a formidable challenge from the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-led Mahagathbandhan and a new entrant, Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party. As the first major election following Operation Sindoor, the polls will test whether Bihar's voters seek continuity or change.
The NDA, comprising JD(U), BJP, Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) (LJP(RV)), and Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), enters the fray with a mixed record. Nitish Kumar, a veteran of Bihar politics, has steered the state through development milestones like improved roads and electricity but faces criticism for his frequent alliance switches. His return to the NDA before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections helped the coalition secure 30 of Bihar's 40 seats, with BJP and JD(U) winning 12 each, LJP(RV) 5, and HAM 1. However, a C-Voter survey indicates that Nitish's credibility has taken a hit, with his approval rating dropping from 60 percent to 16-17 percent over a decade of political flip-flops. The BJP, riding on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's appeal and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) support, aims to consolidate its grip, as seen in its recent dominance in the state cabinet, holding 21 of 36 portfolios.
The RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, including Congress and Left parties, is banking on Tejashwi Yadav's youthful appeal and a narrative of jobs and social justice. In 2020, the RJD emerged as the single-largest party with 75 seats, capitalising on anti-incumbency against the NDA's 20-year rule. Tejashwi's MY-BAAP strategy-targeting Muslim-Yadav, Bahujan (Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes), Aghda(forward, i.e. upper castes), Aadi Aabaadi (half the population, i.e. women) and Poor-aims to broaden the RJD's base beyond its traditional Muslim-Yadav vote bank. However, the alliance's limited success in 2024, winning only 9 Lok Sabha seats (RJD 4, Congress 3, CPI(ML) 2), exposed vulnerabilities, particularly Congress's waning influence and internal factionalism.
Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party introduces a fresh dynamic, promising governance free of caste politics. Launched in October 2024, it secured 10 percent vote share in the November 2024 by-elections but failed to win any of the four seats contested. Its focus on education, health, and clean governance resonates with urban youth but struggles to penetrate rural Bihar, where caste loyalties dominate. Jan Suraaj's plan to field candidates in all 243 seats could split the anti-incumbency vote, potentially benefiting the NDA.
Voter Pulse
The 2024 Lok Sabha election results offer insights into Bihar's voter sentiment. The NDA's 30-seat haul reflected its organisational strength and Nitish Kumar's enduring rural appeal, particularly among Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs, 36.01 percent) and Kurmis (2.87percent) through his Luv-Kush strategy. However, its tally fell from 39 seats in 2019, indicating cracks in its dominance. The BJP's losses in Shahabad and Magadh, where Koeri voters shifted to the RJD, underscored the fluidity of caste alignments. The Mahagathbandhan's 9 seats, up from 1 in 2019, signalled a resurgence, with Tejashwi's outreach to EBCs and youth yielding dividends in constituencies like Aurangabad. Yet, the RJD's inability to breach the NDA's strongholds exposed its reliance on Muslim (18percent) and Yadav (14.26percent) votes.
The 2024 by-elections further clarified voter trends. The NDA's sweep of all four seats-Belaganj, Ramgarh, Tarari, and Imamganj-highlighted its coalition cohesion and Nitish's resilience despite health concerns. The RJD's loss in Belaganj, a traditional stronghold, to JD(U)'s Manorama Devi by over 21,000 votes was a setback, though Tejashwi dismissed it as a minor hiccup. Jan Suraaj's third-place finishes in three seats showed potential but also its limited electoral heft. These results suggest that while anti-incumbency exists, the NDA's development narrative and caste engineering still hold sway.
Bihar's 2023 caste survey underscores the centrality of caste in its politics. EBCs (36.01 percent), OBCs (27.13percent), Scheduled Castes (SCs, 19.65percent), and Scheduled Tribes (STs, 1.68percent) constitute 84.47percent of the population, with Yadavs (14.26percent) and Koeris (4.21percent) being key OBC groups. Forward castes, including Brahmins (3.65percent) and Rajputs (3.45percent), form just 15.52percent. The NDA's Luv-Kush alliance, uniting Kurmis and Koeris, has been a game-changer for Nitish, countering the RJD's Muslim-Yadav base. However, the RJD's MY-BAAP strategy seeks to chip away at EBC and SC votes, with mixed success in 2024. Jan Suraaj's caste-neutral pitch faces an uphill battle in a state where identity drives voting behaviour, as seen in its by-election performance.
Political Flashpoint
The 2025 election is the first since Operation Sindoor, a crackdown on terrorism that has sparked debate. The BJP has hailed it as a triumph of nationalism and defeat of terrorism, while the RJD and Congress accuse the NDA of politicising it to consolidate Hindu votes. This controversy could polarise voters, with the NDA leveraging it to project a tough stance and the RJD framing it as an overreach to distract from governance failures. The operation's impact on voter sentiment, particularly among urban and upper-caste voters, will be crucial.
Bihar's electoral landscape varies across regions. In urban areas like Patna and Muzaffarpur, the NDA's development record-roads, electricity, and law enforcement-finds favour. However, rural regions like Seemanchal and Tirhut grapple with floods, agrarian distress, and migration, fuelling discontent. Tejashwi's promise of 10 lakh jobs and loan waivers targets these concerns, though doubts about feasibility persist. Jan Suraaj's focus on education and health appeals to aspirational voters but lacks rural traction without a caste anchor.
Women voters, empowered by Nitish's liquor ban, are a key demographic. The NDA aims to retain their support through welfare schemes, while the RJD counters with financial aid promises. Technology is another frontier, with the BJP's digital campaigns clashing with the RJD's grassroots WhatsApp networks. Jan Suraaj's viral outreach targets youth, but low literacy and digital access in rural Bihar limit its impact.
Nitish Kumar's health and leadership face scrutiny, with opposition leaders like Tejashwi and Prashant Kishor questioning his fitness. Speculation about Nitish's son, Nishant Kumar, contesting from Harnaut adds intrigue, potentially signaling a succession plan. The BJP's cryptic remarks about deciding the chief minister post-election have strained ties with JD(U), which insists on Nitish as the NDA's face. Tejashwi, backed by Lalu Prasad, is the Mahagathbandhan's chief ministerial candidate, with 38.3percent support in opinion polls against Nitish's 35.6percent. Prashant Kishor, while ruling himself out as a chief ministerial contender, claims Jan Suraaj will produce Bihar's next leader, a bold but untested assertion.
Will 2025 Change Bihar's Course?
The 2025 election is a litmus test for Bihar's political future. The NDA's stability and development record face off against the Mahagathbandhan's populist promises and Jan Suraaj's reformist vision. Historical trends show Bihar's voters are swayed by caste coalitions and tactical alliances, but rising demands for jobs, infrastructure, and quality of life signal a subtle shift. The NDA's by-election sweep and Lok Sabha dominance suggest it enters with an edge, but anti-incumbency and Tejashwi's youth appeal keep the contest open. Jan Suraaj, despite its buzz, risks being a spoiler unless it builds a robust rural base.
The election's outcome will reverberate beyond Bihar, shaping national politics ahead of the 2029 Lok Sabha polls. An NDA victory would cement BJP's dominance and Nitish's relevance, while a Mahagathbandhan win could revive the INDIA bloc. Jan Suraaj's performance, even if modest, could signal a new paradigm if it sustains momentum. For Bihar's 13.07 crore people, the ballot will decide whether the state continues its incremental progress or embraces a new direction, balancing caste loyalties with aspirations for change.
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