‘The Bear' Emmy odds: How many nominations will the series get?
This week, everyone's favorite summer-time, fine-dining panic attack, The Bear, returns for its fourth season. But in the awards world — thanks to eligibility windows — it's the third season of the FX series starring Jeremy Allen White and Ayo Edebiri that Emmys voters are having to consider.
The ascendency of Hacks kept The Bear from claiming a second Best Comedy Series last year, but there were still a bevy of acting wins, taking five out of six within comedy, including White winning his second Emmy in a row for playing Carmy.
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But with The Studio's arrival on the scene and Only Murders in the Building still going strong, comedy categories at the Emmy Awards are more competitive than they've been in years. How will The Bear fare? Here are the series' best shots at scoring nominations when they're announced on July 15.
Vulture recently reported on the supposed whisper campaign among industry insiders to unseat the highly dramatic The Bear as the dominant comedy series at the Emmys, a trend that could have led to the upset victory of Hacks at the 2024 edition of the award. And a look at the Gold Derby odds for the top prize suggests that those efforts may have doubled.
The Bear currently sits in fourth place with combined odds for the category — behind Hacks, The Studio, and Only Murders in the Building. Nipping at The Bear's furry heels are the much beloved Abbott Elementary and another of the season's breakout hits Nobody Wants This.
With episodes of The Bear days from debuting, a standout fourth season could give it a boost among voters. But, much like last year, the opposite is also true.
The strongest Emmys streak that The Bear has going right now — outside of Chris Storer's directing — is White. The actor has claimed Lead Actor in a Comedy Series for The Bear's first two seasons and could make it a hat trick in 2025. But shockingly, White is currently sitting at third in the combined Gold Derby rankings, behind Seth Rogen for The Studio and current favorite Martin Short for Only Murders in the Building. Short, a three-time acting nominee for the Hulu series, hasn't won an Emmy since 2014. Could this be the year?
Will anyone ever beat Deborah Vance? That is the question of the category as long as Hacks stays on the air and Jean Smart is being hilariously mean. Smart has won Lead Actress in a Comedy Series three times — every year that Hacks has been eligible. If anyone has a shot this year, the odds point to Edebiri, who previously won in 2023, when Hacks didn't air within the consideration window. Also in the running, just behind Edebiri, are Quinta Brunson for Abbott Elementary, Kristen Bell for Nobody Wants This, and Natasha Lyonne for Poker Face.
The only regular cast member for The Bear sitting at the top of the odds for their respective category is Ebon Moss-Bachrach. The two-time winner ranks ahead of Harrison Ford (Shrinking), Paul W. Downs (Hacks), Ike Barinholtz (The Studio), and Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary).
It should also be noted that Moss-Bachrach stars in The Fantastic Four: First Steps out this July, which will only help to raise his profile in the midst of voting.
The reigning Comedy Supporting Actress winner, Liza Colón-Zayas, is currently sitting in the No. 2 spot behind her competition from The Bear's primary awards rival. Hacks' Hannah Einbinder has two previous nominations in the category, but has yet to take home a trophy. The odds puts her as the current favorite, with Catherine O'Hara (The Studio), Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary), and Jessica Williams (Shrinking) rounding out the top five.
Jamie Lee Curtis is the heavy favorite to repeat in Comedy Guest Actress, but she'll have some tough competition from Julianne Nicholson's wild appearance on Hacks.
The Studio brought some serious heat with its guest stars — including current number three in the ranking, Martin Scorsese — but it's Bryan Cranston who is poised to stand (or at least to be propped up) in the way of Jon Bernthal's path to two in a row.
In the last two years, The Bear has dominated comedy directing, editing, sound mixing, and sound editing, never losing in any of the four categories. If there are any safe bets for The Bears' nominations, it's right here.
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