Cowboys need dramatic improvement as top NFL offenses prove run-pass balance matters
Not so fast. Running the ball for the sake of running ball does little good for a team's playoff hopes. In fact, an inefficient ground game comes at the opportunity cost of a more efficient passing game. Stubborn play calling would then actually hurt a team's playoff chances.
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Rushing the ball is a tried-and-true pathway to success, provided it's efficient enough to warrant its heavy usage. Additionally, 'heavy usage' doesn't mean it's now more predominant than the passing game or even balanced with the passing game. It just means it's carved out a bigger role than what has been typical in recent years.
Based on nfelo numbers for 2024, the Eagles had the highest pass rate in the NFL. Given their success on the ground, it's hard to fault them for it. Philadelphia averaged +0.056 EPA rushing compared to +0.165 EPA passing. Passing was still more efficient, but the margin was narrower than most teams.
Since situations typically dictate run-pass play calling on third downs, RBSDM calculates early-down balance separately. On early downs the Packers and Eagles led the NFL in rushing rate (57.3 and 53.7 respectively). As one may surmise, both teams were extremely successful rushing it on early downs, thus justifying its abnormal usage.
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The next three teams on the list are evidence that it's an efficient rushing attack that leads to success instead of simply rushing for the sake of rushing. Tennessee, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh finished third, fourth and fifth in early down rushing rate. They didn't rush because they were good at it but rather, they rushed because their quarterback play was abysmal, offering negative EPA output through the air. This is a situation a healthy Dak Prescott-led offense has never had since the Cowboys' passing game has always ranked among league leaders in EPA efficiency.
Takeaways for the Cowboys
The Cowboys should absolutely run the ball more often in 2025. Such a shift in run-pass balance would take pressure off their young offensive line and limit injury exposure to an aging QB. But the frequency of running plays needs directly correspond to the success it achieves in efficiency. At -0.128 EPA Dallas had the seventh worst rushing EPA in the NFL last season so they would have to drastically improve to justify a heavier usage in 2025.
Which they intend to do.
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This article originally appeared on Cowboys Wire: What top offenses in NFL tell Cowboys about run-pass balance
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