Top scientists slam EU plan to allow carbon credits in 2040 goal

Euronews

02-06-2025

The EU's top scientific advisors are urging the bloc not to use international carbon credits to meet its climate targets.
In an unprecedented intervention, the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change (ESABCC) has today issued a report rebuking Brussels' expected plan to weaken its 2040 goal.
The experts say the bloc must stay the course on cutting domestic greenhouse gas emissions by 90-95 per cent below 1990 levels by 2040, following suggestions last week that it would settle for something less ambitious.
'A 90-95 per cent domestic reduction target for 2040 is both achievable and in Europe's own strategic interest. We need to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels, and the necessary technologies are largely available,' says Prof. Jette Bredahl Jacobsen, vice-Chair of the Advisory Board.
Domestic is the operative word; outsourcing our emissions cutting to other countries via carbon credits would be a misguided approach on several levels, the scientists and climate campaigners have emphasised.
The EU has pledged to be climate neutral by 2050, and is almost on track to reduce emissions by 55 per cent by 2030. But its interim target for 2040 is yet to be legally fixed.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, alongside climate chiefs Wopke Hoekstra and Teresa Ribera, had previously indicated that the EU would aim to cut its emissions by 90 per cent by 2040. That is at the lower end of what ESABCC recommended in 2023.
But after pushback from some governments, Hoekstra has delayed the revision of the European Climate Law until around 2 July. He is reportedly considering ways to make the 2040 goal more flexible, including the use of carbon credits.
Under a UN-backed framework agreed at the climate summit COP29 last year, carbon credits enable one country to pay for emissions-cutting projects in another nation, and count the saved CO2 towards its own progress.
Supporters claim these transactions are more cost-effective than domestic action and can help poorer countries get funding for climate action.
Critics, including scientists on the advisory board, argue that the credits risk diverting resources from domestic investments and could undermine environmental integrity.
'Delaying action or relying on international carbon credits would risk missing vital opportunities to modernise the EU's economy, create quality jobs, and reinforce Europe's position in clean tech leadership,' Bredahl Jacobsen says.
The ESABCC - which is an independent body legally tasked with making climate policy recommendations - has never commented on an ongoing political debate in this manner before.
Its 60-page report points to research showing that, 'just 16 per cent of credits issued under various carbon crediting programmes to date have delivered genuine emission reductions.'
Green NGOs are glad to see the board taking a stand.
International offsets are 'a waste of taxpayers' money,' according to Michael Sicaud-Clyet, Climate Governance Policy Officer at WWF EU.
'Why should we pay other countries when we could be investing it in making our own industries more competitive? It's like sending someone else to school and expecting to receive the degree and results yourself.'
International carbon credits aren't necessary, the report stresses. A net domestic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in the range of 90 to 95 per cent is both scientifically feasible and increases the fairness of the EU's contribution to global mitigation.
Alongside mitigation, the advisory board is calling for stronger EU action on adaptation to protect citizens from increasing climate risks.
Rising greenhouse gas emissions have already driven global temperatures up by 1.3-1.4 °C, fuelling extreme climate events in Europe and around the world. Yet, the authors say, the EU's current adaptation policy lacks measurable goals and a robust legal foundation.
'The risks from climate change are growing, and so is the gap between what's needed and what's in place,' says Prof Laura Diaz Anadon, vice-Chair of the Advisory Board.
'The EU should clarify its vision for climate resilience, and back it with governance, legal tools, and measurable targets. Without a stronger adaptation policy framework, Europe risks falling behind the pace of impacts from climate change.'
More than 40 per cent of Europe is currently facing some form of drought, the latest official update reveals.
Pockets of south-eastern Spain, Cyprus, Greece, and areas across the south-eastern Balkans are under the highest form of 'alert' according to the European Drought Observatory (EDO)'s report for 11-20 May.
But a drought 'warning' is also in place across large swathes of northern and eastern Europe, following a record-breaking hot and dry spring, driven by climate change.
March was Europe's warmest on record, and some countries saw their driest March, Europe's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) previously reported.
In total, 1.6 per cent of the 27 EU countries (excluding Madeira, Azores, and Canary Islands) plus the UK is in alert conditions. As per the EDO's classification, this means that vegetation is showing signs of stress, as well as the soil lacking moisture - which places an area under a warning - and less than normal rainfall.
The situation is particularly acute in some Mediterranean areas favoured by holidaymakers, such as the Greek islands of Santorini and Mykonos. Here, water is having to be shipped in from Athens or filtered by desalination plants to fill swimming pools and showers.
Overtourism is being blamed for exacerbating the issue. "The tourist sector is unsustainable and there is no planning,' Nikitas Mylopoulos, professor of water resource management at Thessaly University, told the UK's Sky News. '[This is] leading to a tremendous rise in water demand in summer.'
However, he added, agriculture is a far bigger drain on the country's water resources, amplified by waste and a lack of effective policies.
Alert conditions are rapidly emerging in large areas of Ukraine and neighbouring countries, impacting crops and vegetation, EDO warns.
Ukraine is one of Europe's fastest-heating countries, hitting 2.7°C above the 1951-1980 average in 2023. As a major exporter of grain, drought here has serious ramifications for global food supplies. Parts of Poland and Slovakia are suffering from the dry spell, too.
Alert conditions also persist in western, south-eastern and central Türkiye, northern and western Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Palestine, parts of Jordan, northern Iraq, Iran and Azerbaijan.
In northern Africa, alert and warning conditions have clung on for more than a year.
According to the EDO's Combined Drought Indicator (CDI), 39.6 per cent of the EU-27 and the UK have a drought warning.
This orange patch on the map stretches from Ireland to the northern slopes of the Alps, across to Finland, southern Russia and Türkiye.
During the 10-day period from 11 to 20 May, temperatures have been above the seasonal average in northern Europe.
As well as the agricultural impacts, there are concerns for hydropower. The International Hydropower Association has said that drought and intense rain - an example of 'climate whiplash' - are pushing power plants to "operate at the limits of their existing equipment".
Global warming is exacerbating drought in some parts of the world, including around the Mediterranean. Scientists at the World Weather Attribution found that the widespread drought of 2022, for example, was made 20 times more likely by climate change.
It will take time to do a similar study for spring 2025, but there is no doubt that climate change is making droughts worse by increasing temperatures and changing 'precipitation regimes', in the words of Andrea Toreti, coordinator of the Copernicus European and Global Drought Observatories.
Regions that would usually have a chance to recover or balance a lack of water in warmer seasons and prepare for summer cannot depend on rainfall in the same way, Toreti previously told Euronews Green.
'Nowadays, this sort of equilibrium has been modified.'