UK faces calls for 5% GDP defence spend, ahead of PM's meeting with Nato chief
The UK will be expected to spend 5% of its economic output on defence investment, the chief of Nato has said, ahead of a meeting with Sir Keir Starmer next week.
Mark Rutte, the secretary general of the alliance, said on Thursday he is proposing Nato members spend 5% of gross domestic product (GDP) on defence.
Mr Rutte, who will visit the UK next week to meet the Prime Minister, said members will be expected to spend 3.5% on the military, with a further 1.5% on defence-related measures.
The commitment dwarfs Sir Keir's current defence plans, through which the UK would spend 2.5% of GDP by 2027, with an 'ambition' to raise this to 3% in the next parliament, a period which could stretch to 2034.
Mr Rutte is said to be pushing for the target to be met by 2032, but speaking to reporters in Brussels, he suggested there was a need to 'consult' member countries on the details of a deadline.
At a press conference, Mr Rutte said: 'I will propose an overall investment plan that will total 5% of GDP in defence investment and 3.5% of GDP for core defence spending.'
He said this was to meet new 'capability targets' that ministers agreed on at a meeting earlier on Thursday, as well as 1.5% per year in 'defence and security-related investments like infrastructure and industry'.
Asked if he could ensure countries would meet the commitment over time, Mr Rutte said he had a 'cunning plan' to hold political leaders to account, 'that nations will commit to yearly plans showing the increase each year to make sure that you come to the new target of 5%'.
This would prevent a 'hockey stick' on a graph of spending over time, where it suddenly ramps up towards the end, he added.
The US, which currently spends 3.4% of GDP on defence, is also being asked to meet the commitment, Mr Rutte said.
'The US is committed to increase defence spending to 5%,' he added.
Asked about a timeline for the commitment, Mr Rutte said he did not want to 'go into more details', adding: 'Obviously, allies will have discussions amongst each other.
'We will consult with each other on some of these details. For example, what is the end date that you want to have reached it?'
Amid pressure from Nato to ramp up spending beyond Sir Keir's current plans, US defence secretary Pete Hegseth has said he was sure the UK was 'going to get there'.
'We think everyone is going to get there, we really do. It's important they do. It's important that the UK gets there,' Mr Hegseth told reporters.
We will continue to protect our people and our way of life. To do this, we must increase defence spending to make NATO a stronger, fairer, and more lethal Alliance #DefMin pic.twitter.com/UBEtdjps9e
— NATO (@NATO) June 5, 2025
Elsewhere, Mr Hegseth declined to name countries not yet committed to the 5% pledge, but then proceeded to name those he claimed were committed, including France, Germany, the Baltic and Nordic countries, Poland, Greece and Hungary.
Downing Street said it would not 'get ahead of' the Nato leaders' summit in the Hague later this month.
A Number 10 spokesman said: 'The Prime Minister is clear that Europe must step up on defence and security, and we are proud to be leading the way with our Nato-first focused SDR, the commitment of our nuclear deterrent and nearly all of our armed forces to Nato and our historic uplift to defence spending.
'But I'm not going to get ahead of the summit in a couple of weeks time.'
During his meeting with Mr Rutte on Monday, the Prime Minister is likely to raise the question of how 'we can ensure all allies meet their stated pledges in support of our collective defence', according to Downing Street.
As well as his talks with Sir Keir, the former Dutch prime minister will visit Sheffield Forgemasters with Defence Secretary John Healey, and give a speech at Chatham House.
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Slovakia will block EU's Russia sanctions if they harm national interests, Fico says
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When Lord Robertson was asked to co-write a strategic review of Britain's defence, he had one slightly peculiar objective. 'It was suggested at the beginning that the objective of our report should be to stop The Daily Telegraph judging Britain's defence by the number of people in the Army,' the former Nato secretary general said. 'And I think we've done that,' he remarked in an interview with The Telegraph 's Battle Lines podcast this week. The Strategic Defence Review (SDR) is a 144-page, 45,000 word prescription for 'root and branch' reform of Britain's military. Officially, it is an instruction to the Government. But at another level, it is addressed to us, the British public. The message is stark: how much are you prepared to sacrifice to make this country safe? That implies a demand no British government has had to make of voters since Winston Churchill promised blood, toil, tears and sweat. It's a reflection of the danger of the current geopolitical moment. And it is why Robertson believes he has made the case in this review for looking beyond numbers of troops, submarines and fighter planes that previous reports have focused on. The real issues, he argues, are much more crucial. 'Too many of the interviews I've had this week have been about the money. Whereas actually this report fundamentally transforms the way in which we do defence. 'It's a strategic review, it is designed for 2035, not just for what we're facing at the present moment. 'It's to do with what we are going to need in future: agile forces, grasping the whole of technology, capturing the innovations that are coming. I think a lot of people have missed that.' Lord Robertson has spent a career in and around defence and security. As Tony Blair's first defence secretary he authored the new Labour government's own strategic review in 1998. He went on to serve as secretary general of Nato from 1999-2003. So he was a natural choice when John Healey, the defence secretary, was hiring independent reviewers to take a new look at the state of British defence. His co-authors were General Sir Richard Barrons, an accomplished soldier who is best known for publicly warning of the current crisis in the forces 10 years ago, and Fiona Hill, the British-American foreign policy expert who advised Donald Trump on Russia during his first term as president. Both have a reputation as the best in their respective fields. The report they have come up with – readably penned by Hill, who Robertson strongly hints was by far the best writer of the three – is both ambitious, and frighteningly blunt. Three years into the biggest war in Europe in 1945, they warn, Britain's Armed Forces remain shaped by the post Cold-War era of small wars, far away, against irregular or poorly armed opponents. 'Exquisite' capabilities have masked the 'hollowing out' of the Armed Forces' war fighting capability. Stockpiles are inadequate. The 'strategic base lacks capacity and resilience following years of under investment. Medical services lack the capacity for managing a mass-casualty conflict'. Poor recruitment and retention, shoddy accommodation, falling morale, and cultural challenges have created a military 'workforce crisis'. And in addition, the relationship with industry is still stuck in the Cold War. 'Business as usual is not an option,' they write. Their plan is to bring Britain to war-fighting readiness over the next 10 years. Will we have that long? General Carsten Breuer, the head of the German army, said this month that Nato could face a Russian attack by 2029. The International Institute for Strategic Studies, a British defence think tank, found in a report in May that the attack could come as early as 2027, in the admittedly worst-case scenario of America leaving Nato and removing troops from Europe. 'The decade [to 2035] is what we were working to. That was our view about what we needed to do,' says Lord Robertson. 'For a peer adversary attacking the United Kingdom, which is what we're talking about, it would probably require that long for the existing potential adversaries to reconstitute. But it can be earlier, and therefore the model that we have created and are promoting can be accelerated.' Of the 62 individual proposals in this 'root and branch' reform plan, many are of operational implications that will mostly be of interest to those already in uniform. The Royal Navy, it says, will need a greater submarine and anti-submarine warfare capability to protect our underwater pipelines and cables. The RAF is called on to deliver deeper air and missile defence, expand its use of drones, and could be involved in 'discussions with the United States and Nato on the potential benefits and feasibility of enhanced UK participation in Nato's nuclear mission'. Some have taken that to mean mounting air-dropped nuclear-bombs on F-35As jets, but Robertson says: 'It's not in the report because we found a huge diversity of opinion about that, ranging from the best nuclear platform to the suitability of the F35.' The biggest implications are for the Army, the least modernised of the three services and the one most depleted by donating kit to Ukraine. It will have to increase its armoured brigades from two to three, implying a massive investment and overhaul. But woven through all of this is a theme of relevance to everyone living in Britain, whatever their relationship to the Armed Forces. The new era, they say, requires an 'all-of-society' approach. Forget recent decades. The Falklands, Gulf, and Afghanistan wars did not require anything close to the scale of national preparation for war, home defence, resilience, and industrial mobilisation that they have in mind. 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Nato had just signed the Nato-Russia Founding Act with Boris Yeltsin. China was in the shadows, wasn't really a big player at all, and we thought globalisation was a great idea.' 'So that world has gone. We now have a great power competition playing out in front of our eyes,' he adds. 'We have geostrategic shifts taking place all the time in terms of industry and commerce. The volatility of events in the world is unprecedented, probably in history.' For that reason, the SDR devotes several pages to home defence and resilience, ensuring continuity of national life in the event of infrastructure failures and 'build national preparedness and resilience, ensuring the UK can withstand attacks and recover quickly'. Its prescriptions include renewing the contract between the Forces and the country, enhancing protection for critical national infrastructure, making sure that industry knows what is expected of it in case of war. 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'A transformer blows up and Heathrow airport, the busiest airport in the world, has to close down for 24 hours. Something like 90 per cent of the data that we are using in this country and in Europe as a whole, comes in under sea cables. ' About 77 per cent of the UK's gas imports come from Norway and one in one pipeline. So the vulnerabilities from cyber and from the grey zone, disinformation, targeted assassinations, electoral interference, all of that is part and parcel of today's world.' Once confrontation moves from the grey zone to open war, there is a question of casualties. How would the British public respond, I ask, to cruise missiles slamming into Catterick Garrison leaving dozens, possibly hundreds, of young soldiers dead? Or glide bombs ripping women and children into pieces as they shop? Or a Royal Navy ship being lost with all hands? Are we, as a nation, psychologically and culturally prepared to shoulder the kind of hardship and grief unseen since 1945? 'We'll need to make sure that that is the case and remind people about what it is. And I think that's the job of the media. It's the job of politicians. 'And we need to raise awareness of the issue. What is it you want, what is the insurance premium that will keep you and your family safe in the future. 'But we in the review are talking about how to avoid it. Deterrence is the question. You know, we all go to our beds at night safe because of Article 5 of the Nato treaty.' However Nato – the bedrock of British defence – is under strain. And Britain's relationship with its allies is about to be tested at the annual alliance summit in the Hague later this month. Robertson, Barrons and Hill wrote the Review to parameters set by the government: specifically, a commitment to raise defence spending from 2.3 per cent to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2027 and to 3 per cent in the next parliament when economic conditions allow. Nato officials told The Telegraph this week that they expect Starmer to commit to 3.5 per cent at the alliance's annual summit in the Hague. Donald Trump and his defence secretary Pete Hegseth are demanding a much higher bench mark of 5 per cent. Lord Richard Dannatt, a former head of the British Army, said earlier this week that postponing three per cent target is 'tantamount to back in 1937 saying to Adolf Hitler 'please don't attack us until 1946 because we won't be ready'.' Although Robertson argues the money question is a distraction from the 'guts' of the review, it is not difficult to see where the tight budget has constrained ambition. 'Ten times more lethal' The review clearly states that none of the three Services – Army, Royal Navy, or Royal Air Force can afford to lose any more highly trained and equipped regulars. Yet the authors' proposed remedy is strangely modest. For example, it says the Army should have a total strength of 100,000, consisting of the current nominal 73,000 regulars (the smallest since the Napoleonic wars) and the difference made up by an expansion of the number of reservists. It argues that new technology can make this small force '10 times more lethal' than it is now. And it is true that automation is changing warfare. The audacious Ukrainian operation to strike Russian airbases last weekend, points out Robertson, is a perfect example of the kind of thing Britain should be planning to carry out – and defend against. But high intensity peer conflict still involves casualties. Heavy casualties. In the trenches in Donbas, there is a constant threat of shrapnel, bullet, and blast wounds. Drones may now be inflicting more casualties than artillery, but that is of little comfort to the infantry: unlike a 152mm shell, a quadcopter loaded with plastic explosive can chase your car or fly right through the door of your dugout. 'Ukraine is an example, but it's not a template' That is one reason why this month Russia is projected to suffer its millionth casualty, including dead and wounded. No one is suggesting the British Army should fight with Russian-style tactics. But can a force of 73,000 regulars and 27,000 reservists really sustain modern levels of attrition? 'The Army's lethality is what matters. It's the effectiveness of our forces that actually matter, at the end of the day. And Ukraine is an example, but it's not a template. 'People say that generals, and even strategists are busy fighting the last war, and in some ways, Ukraine is the last war. The next war will be a very different war in many ways with very different sets of circumstances that we have to deal with,' says Robertson. Yet it is difficult to shake the feeling that although Robertson, Hill and Barrons did the best they could within the financial parameters they were set, they would have liked to do more. Would he have liked more money to work with? And does he believe Labour will deliver? Everything in the review has been 'ruthlessly' costed, he says, and the Prime Minister has explicitly promised its recommendations are going to be implemented. 'So the three of us are going to be right there, you know, sitting there like crows on the branch of a tree, watching carefully as to how the recommendations are implemented and how, and, and when and when they are,' he says 'So Labour has created a bit of a rod for their own back by having independent reviewers, but at the same time, it should galvanise them.' The question of raising the budget, he says, is a question for voters. 'What we can say is what we think is necessary, in terms of reference [we were given]. If the British people as a whole decide they want to spend more money on defence and less money on other things, then they will make that decision,' he says. 'At the moment they don't. We had a general election campaign last year where defence wasn't really mentioned at all. We had a Conservative party leadership campaign where defence wasn't mentioned as an issue. So people in the country have to see the threats that exist at the moment and the threats that will be there in the future and make a decision about what they have.' Britons will have to make sacrifices It's a fair point. For all the grumbling about Keir Starmer's timidness, the truth is his government – and British taxpayers – face three equally unpalatable options. They could borrow, while national debt is already at 95 per cent of GDP and growth anaemic; raise taxes, when the tax burden is already on course to be the highest since the Second World War; or make cuts elsewhere, when public services are already struggling. Is the blunt message, then, that to be safe ordinary Britons will have to make sacrifices? 'I think so. Unless the economy improves and unless we get growth – and a lot of what we are doing is promoting growth, defence expenditure is a way of gaining growth – then that makes the pie bigger and the choice is less difficult to make. 'We don't live in a world where there is an infinite amount of money available. It's a question of priorities. And if in a national conversation, which the Prime Minister has promised he's going to lead, people come to the conclusion that they want to avoid the lights going out or the hospitals being shut or the airports being shuttered and the data cables being broken, then the insurance premium that keeps your family safe has got be afforded.' As Robertson leaves The Telegraph, I remark that there is something about our conversation that leaves me uneasy. Here we are, a journalist in his 40s and a peer of the realm in his 70s – blithely discussing a war that neither of us will probably have to fight in. Does he find it morally awkward, talking about sacrifices today's teenagers and twenty-somethings will be asked to make? 'It is, and that's why I'm so obsessive about deterrence,' he says. 'The idea is to do this now so we don't have to fight.' He returns to the nuclear question, and three decades of interactions with top Russian officials. 'I've been in the Kremlin. And I am convinced that even if we did everything you've suggested – double the size of the army, and so on – the one thing that will really get their attention is the independent nuclear deterrent.' 'You know, there are people who will still argue that if Ukraine had not given up its nuclear weapons in 1994, in return for the paper assurances of the Budapest memorandum, that Russia would never have dared to have crossed the border. I don't know if you can prove that or disprove that. 'All I know is that Nato and the Article 5 guarantee is a deterrent to any aggressor who thinks that they can take on these 32 countries. So all of the missiles, all of the submarines, all of the planes that we are proposing are part of the build-up to war readiness are designed not to be used. 'They're designed to make sure that nobody fires that cruise missile.'
The Guardian
11 hours ago
- The Guardian
Canada won't become the 51st US state – but could it join the EU?
Joachim Streit has never stepped foot in Canada. But that hasn't stopped the German politician from launching a tenacious, one-man campaign that he readily describes as 'aspirational': to have the North American country join the EU. 'We have to strengthen the European Union,' said Streit, who last year was elected as a member of the European parliament. 'And I think Canada – as its prime minister says – is the most European country outside of Europe.' Streit had long imagined Canada as a sort of paradise, home to dense forests that course with wide, rushing rivers. But after Donald Trump returned to power, launching much of the world into a trade war and turning his back on America's traditional allies, Streit began to cast the northern country in a new light. What he saw was a relatively unexplored relationship, one that could prove mutually beneficial as the world grapples with rapidly reshaping global dynamics. 'Canadians have seen their trust in the US undermined, just as we have in Europe, following President Trump's actions,' he said. 'We need to strengthen the ties that bind us to our friends.' While he admitted that the possibility of Canada as a full member of the EU 'may be aspirational for now', he wondered if it was an idea whose time had come. 'Canada would be a strong member,' he said. 'If Canada would be a member of the EU, it would rank 4th in terms of GDP. It's part of Nato. And 58% of (working-age) Canadians have college degrees.' Canada also has vast energy reserves – an asset that could prove useful to the bloc, which is still struggling to wean itself off Russian gas, he added. Since launching his campaign last month, Streit has become the most visible proponent of an unlikely proposition that has been gaining traction since Trump began floating the idea of Canada as the 51st state. In late January, a former foreign minister of Germany, Sigmar Gabriel, called for Canada to be invited into the EU. 'They are more European than some European member states anyway,' he told Germany's Pioneer Media. Media outlets on both sides of the Atlantic have delved into the idea, while a February poll of 1,500 Canadians found 44% of them believed Canada should look into joining the EU. In March, however, a European spokesperson appeared to pour cold water on the suggestion, citing an article in the EU treaty that specifies only European states can apply to join the EU. Streit brushed off the technicality, pointing to France's overseas territories. 'Those are also not in Europe, but those islands belong to the European Union,' he said. Cyprus, considered EU territory but located geographically in west Asia, was another example. And if one wanted to get technical, Canada was – albeit in a minuscule way – connected geographically to Europe, he said. 'Greenland, which belongs to Denmark, shares a border with Canada,' he said, pointing to the divide that runs through the uninhabited half-mile square Hans Island. In April, Streit submitted a written question to the European parliament, asking whether the treaty article stipulating that states must be European could be interpreted in a way that could allow for Canadian membership or, barring that, if it could be legally revised. He has yet to receive a response. Undaunted, he sent a letter to two EU commissioners calling for a sort of political Erasmus to be launched between the bloc and Canada. What he envisions is a professional exchange programme that would allow EU officials to better grasp the nuances of Canadian federalism and Canadians to get a sense of the workings of European institutions. 'It would serve as both a symbolic and practical step toward deeper integration,' he said, one that could build on existing ties such as the EU-Canada trade deal and Canada's participation in the EU's flagship science research programme, Horizon. Since launching the campaign, he's been in constant contact with Canadians; meeting twice with one of Canada's high-ranking envoys to the EU and meeting with a Brussels-based association that promotes Canada-EU trade. As news spreads of his efforts, his office has received a handful of emails of support. Some have offered up their own thoughts on how to skirt around Canada's geographic location; one recent email laid out what the writer described as a 'killer argument', pointing out that as part of the Commonwealth Canada was tied to the UK and, by extension, Europe. Streit took it one step further. 'And who is the head of Canada?' he asked, pointing to King Charles. 'And he's a European.' Streit said he was well aware that, for all his efforts, the idea may prove to be impossible. Even so, he hoped that the moment could be seized on to at least hammer out the kind of deep ties the bloc has with countries such as Norway or Switzerland. 'Sometimes in history, the windows of opportunity open and close again,' he said. 'And sometimes, the windows of opportunity are open only for a brief moment.'
