NBA 2025 offseason concern-o-meter: Giannis' future, LeBron's next steps and more

New York Times

6 days ago

'It's a copycat league.'
That's what you hear about the NBA all the time. Something works for a team, and everybody wants to emulate it. That mentality also seeps into the sports media world. Our friend Shayna Goldman from the NHL side of The Athletic recently published a concern-o-meter regarding the NHL offseason blues (not St. Louis). The offseason action wasn't that fast and furious over there, and you could make similar comments about the NBA summer.
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Once Kevin Durant was traded to Houston, the offseason sputtered quite a bit. We got the surprise of Damian Lillard being waived and stretched and the Phoenix Suns pulling the plug on the Bradley Beal experience, but not a ton of massive moves were made. It seems like many teams are still trying to figure out how to navigate the second-apron era, and there was very little cap space available and high-quality free agents to pursue. So we're stealing from Shayna and borrowing the concern-o-meter for the NBA world. Here are 10 potential red flags that have popped up this summer, and we'll measure just how much concern there should be for each situation.
Concern-o-meter: 7/10
No offense to Durant, but Giannis Antetokounmpo was the biggest star everybody was looking at going into the NBA offseason. Once Lillard tore his Achilles in the first round of the playoffs and we all realized how doomed this Bucks roster construction was, the basketball world wondered if the Greek Freak would finally decide his time in Milwaukee was done.
The Bucks made the bold move of putting $22.5 million of dead cap money on their books for each of the next five seasons. That allowed them the flexibility to replace Brook Lopez at center with Myles Turner. Not only did they take away from a division rival, but they upgraded (in theory) their center position. Lopez was more consistent in his role with the Bucks than Turner has been with Indiana, but Turner allows the Bucks to be more versatile on the defensive end.
Is that enough to keep Giannis happy? I don't know. To Bucks GM Jon Horst's credit, every time there has been concern about Antetokounmpo potentially bolting, the franchise has made a bold move. When we weren't sure he'd sign a supermax extension to stay in Milwaukee, the Bucks made the deal for Jrue Holiday in the 2020 offseason and won a title in 2021. When Giannis started talking about how only one title in his career wouldn't be enough, they surprised everybody by trading for Lillard. It didn't work out, but at the time, most of us assumed it made them title contenders.
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Maybe they've been quieted momentarily, but the questions this offseason following the Lillard injury haven't been answered. The state of the Eastern Conference makes this more palatable and a Disney movie-style triumph seem more possible. Surround Giannis with defense and outside shooting. Make the games ugly. Rely on Giannis to be a superhero. To quote that kid in 'Angels in the Outfield,' it could happen, though I don't know if anybody should bet on it happening.
In my opinion (no reporting here), the biggest thing holding hope for Giannis staying in Milwaukee is that I don't fully believe he's willing to embrace the potential PR hit of bailing. I don't even necessarily think this is a marketing thing or about selling shoes or avoiding his jersey being burned on social media for clout (if people are still doing that). I think Giannis likes being universally liked and genuinely loves being in Milwaukee, and that's a tough pill to risk swallowing in many facets. But his competitive drive might eventually override that if they can't get him any closer to another title than the first round.
Concern-o-meter: 3/10
The Denver Nuggets supernova and one of the world's leading horse enthusiasts declined seeking a contract extension this offseason. Jokić has two more guaranteed years left on his deal for a total of $114 million, plus a player option for the 2027-28 season that would pay him $62.8 million. He could have added three years and approximately $200 million to his existing deal, which would have wiped out his player option. By delaying this another summer, Jokić will be eligible for a fourth year to that extension for about $77 million.
That makes sense for him, and there shouldn't be much concern here. The Nuggets were a bit of a dumpster fire at the end of last season, but since then, they made a heroic run deep into the second round because of how good Jokić is, and they got great salary relief by trading Michael Porter Jr. and a first-round pick to Brooklyn for Cam Johnson. This allowed them the flexibility to add Jonas Valančiūnas, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Bruce Brown Jr. to what was a pretty anemic bench offering.
Denver went from a team you only believed in because of Jokić to a team that now appears to be right back with the world champion Oklahoma City Thunder in the hierarchy of the West. The only reason this meter is at a three instead of a one is because Jokić seems to love horse racing so much and tolerate the NBA as a job that it wouldn't shock me if he hit 32 or 33 years old and decided to retire.
Concern-o-meter: 8/10
When Paul George signed with the Sixers last summer, I didn't immediately include them in the contender zone, despite having Joel Embiid, George and Tyrese Maxey as their core. The Sixers had too many issues with being healthy and available in the postseason to feel like George was going to change that, especially considering his own playoff shortcomings in his OKC and LA days.
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The situation turned out to be far worse than even detractors like myself predicted, as Embiid, George and Maxey combined to play just 112 games total and only 15 together. They intelligently punted on about half of last season, rest their injured stars and protected their draft pick that was owed to OKC if it fell outside the top six.
The Sixers head into this season with Embiid hopefully rested and healthy following his knee procedures, although we don't know to be sure based on some recent reporting. They've added VJ Edgecombe, an exciting rookie guard, with the third pick (thanks, tanking!). They bring back last year's best rookie, Jared McCain, who saw his season cut short in December because of a knee issue. And even though there are plenty of reasons to feel good about the Sixers at full health, they likely won't even have that once we get to training camp and preseason.
George had surgery on his left knee last month and will be re-evaluated before training camp. That doesn't mean he'll be back. It just means we'll likely get an update from the Sixers on his status on media day. This is already troubling news for George, who has played just 168 games over the last six seasons. Maybe I'm being too reactionary, but with the Sixers, it's better to assume the worst and hope for the best than to assume the best or even just solid news.
Concern-o-meter: 6/10
I'm not ready to bury the Celtics. Don't get me wrong: I do not believe they're contenders, nor do I believe they can win the East. But I still like their chances to finish in the top six and avoid the Play-In Tournament.
There's no Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday or Kristaps Porziņģis. Luke Kornet also left in free agency, and we expect Al Horford to sign elsewhere. That's a lot missing from last season's rotation, and you need to make sure Derrick White and Jaylen Brown stay healthy. With that said, I think people underestimate how difficult it is to play against this Celtics style. And they didn't lose a lot of outside shooting, which is the main staple of their offensive attack. In the three seasons under Joe Mazzulla, 3-point shots have been 47.9, 47.0 and 53.5 percent of their shot attempts. That was the highest volume of 3-pointers in the league the past two seasons, and it was second behind Dallas in Mazzulla's first season. Mazzulla wants them to get up shots from deep.
While they did lose the players I listed above, they managed to acquire Anfernee Simons and Chris Boucher. Simons is a career 38.1 percent 3-point shooter. On catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts, Simons is a career 41.3 percent shooter. He fits this style, and it wouldn't shock me if the Celtics take nearly 60 percent of their shots from outside to make up for the losses.
Boucher isn't a reliable shooter, but he's had two above-league-average 3-point shooting seasons in his last five. The 2020-21 season saw Boucher shoot 38.3 percent from 3-point range and 37.8 percent on catch-and-shoot attempts. He was a bad shooter the next three seasons, but last season, we saw return to stretching the floor. He made 36.5 percent of his 3s and 37.9 percent on catch-and-shoot attempts. Two years ago, most of his 3-point shots came from straight away or the right wing, which is in that Porziņģis sweet spot. Last season, we saw Boucher go more to the corners, where he made 39 percent.
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Boston still has Payton Pritchard and Sam Hauser in the rotation, and they can really shoot. We saw a bit of a style change in the postseason after Tatum went down. It was a small sample size, but they seemed to rely less on one-on-one attacks from their stars and more on that offensive flow that makes them difficult to defend most nights. Opponents dealing with that style on random nights in the regular season won't be easy.
They still have to piece together a big man rotation with Boucher, Xavier Tillman, Neemias Queta and maybe Luka Garza, and that might not be pretty. But I wouldn't officially relegate them to the Play-In just yet.
Concern-o-meter: 5/10
These Clippers are so old. (Heard off-mic: 'How old are they?') They're so old that many people are concerned they won't be able to handle an 82-game season, nor the grind of the playoffs, to the extent of experiencing true postseason success. That's not so much a punchline as it is a reality of their roster age. That's mostly what I've heard since the news that 40-year-old Chris Paul and 37-year-old Brook Lopez (and even 32-year-old Bradley Beal) joined the Clippers this summer.
The Clippers have eight players on the roster born before 1995. I'll remind you that we're in 2025. The average age of their main 11 guys is 33 years old. According to Tom Haberstroh and Dan Devine, this is the oldest roster in league history, beating out the 2001-02 Utah Jazz, who sat at an elderly average age of 32 years.
Having Kobe Brown, Jordan Miller, Cameron Christie and rookie Yanic Konan Niederhauser (tremendous name) brings the roster age below that 33 average, but those guys aren't expected to play much. Or maybe they should be expected to because the Clippers have so many old guys?
I have concerns for the Clippers more because of injury history. That's where the concern-o-meter gets to a five. Kawhi Leonard, Paul, Beal and plenty of others have injury battles they've lost in the past, but I think the Clippers are going to be OK because they are such a deep team. Remember that the average age above was based on 11 players. Eleven! The Clippers have incredible depth to manage minutes and mitigate the grind of a long season.
Concern-o-meter: 10/10
It's been said a lot, but the thrill of free agency in the second-apron era and beyond might be officially gone. Maybe this is an overreaction to a calm summer in 2025, but the writing is on the wall. Whether or not agents figure out how to erase that writing is another story.
Everything was pointing toward 2026 being a big summer for free agency. A lot of teams have emphasized keeping cap flexibility and roster flexibility for next June and July. That might be contingent on Trae Young, Zach LaVine and maybe even Draymond Green declining player options, but there are a lot of other potential free-agent options, pushing the depth of the class far beyond what we saw this summer.
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Durant might be a free agent if he doesn't lock down an extension with his new Houston Rockets team, although he's expected to find a deal with them. LeBron James is going to be a free agent, and the Lakers no longer appear to be a definite end to his career (more on that in a bit). There's a decent chance Austin Reaves ends up being one of the biggest free agents out there, depending on how extensions and options go between now and then. Cap space is more likely to be used to bring in players with trades, and possibly draft assets to accompany said player, if teams are dumping salaries to get under the first or second aprons.
The trade deadline might be the new free agency. Or maybe it has been for a long time, and we're just now noticing?
Concern-o-meter: 3/10
There's no doubt the statement by Klutch Sports CEO Rich Paul after news of James picking up his $52.6 million player option made things weird with LeBron and the Lakers, at least on the outside looking in. I don't think they have a bad relationship, by any means. However, it's obvious to see that the trade for Luka Dončić changed the dynamics of this franchise's present and future. So what does this mean for LeBron?
A get-together with Jokić's agent recently had many of us buzzing about the possibility of LeBron trying to end his career with the current best player in the world. Turns out, it may have only been about creating a basketball league overseas. The tricky thing about LeBron is he's not the player he used to be — he's still the icon/economy he's been for decades — but he's also not some old chump on the floor. He was named second-team All-NBA last season at the age of 40.
James will most likely be a free agent next summer. He'll have a lot of places that will want to employ what is presumed to be the final chapter of his historic NBA career. The question is whether those pursuers will want to pay him max money. Does it make sense to eat one-third of your cap on a player in his 40s? Does LeBron make all of that questioning moot? Will he want to go back to Cleveland? Will he want to play next to Steph Curry? Will another big market team catch his eye? Will he simply go somewhere that gives him a chance to win a fifth ring? And does that situation mean he'll have to take a discount?
This current situation got a wrench thrown into it back in February with the Luka trade, but from LeBron's standpoint, I'm not concerned about much of it because he always seems to have a good plan.
Concern-o-meter: 9/10
Is it ever lower than a nine out of 10 with the Pelicans and being concerned? The fact that people took note of July 15 being the date the Pelicans had to fully guarantee Zion Williamson's contract for next season shows you the uncertainty of that entire situation. They made some confusing trades at the draft, sending away CJ McCollum (fine) for Jordan Poole (head-scratching) and then giving away an unprotected, highly valuable first-round pick in 2026 to move up to 13th to draft Derik Queen from Maryland. Queen has already needed surgery to repair a wrist issue, and he'll hopefully be back in October.
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The Pelicans always have massive injury concerns, Zion aside. Dejounte Murray tore his Achilles in January. Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones combined to play 73 games last season. There are so many components to like on this roster, but I'm not sure how they go together. Willie Green has been a good coach early in his career, but it's hard to know if he'll continue to have the support from new management (Joe Dumars and Troy Weaver) and ownership.
When Zion is healthy and plays, he's historic. If he doesn't play (enough), what is this team?
Concern-o-meter: 7/10
We're entering a very intriguing era of NBA media. TNT is out and Amazon in, and things have dramatically shifted from a television to a digital landscape with NBA broadcasts. Granted, NBC is coming back into the fold with its broadcasts for the first time since 2002, but we'll also see how it uses its Peacock app. The biggest thing people have wondered about, though, is what happens to the acclaimed 'Inside the NBA' show.
We know it's going to be licensed by ESPN, but the production is supposed to remain with the Turner Sports crew and allegedly not have influence from ESPN. The show will be the show, but just be broadcast by ESPN. It almost sounds too good to be true. I'm not sure how much I trust that everything will be smooth away from Turner.
The beauty of 'Inside the NBA' is that they didn't worry about commercial breaks and getting to certain segments on time. If something was interesting, then they let it rock for a while. They held actual discussions instead of speaking in forced 30-second soundbites. Nobody really tried to be the star of the show; the show was the star.
From chatter I heard this summer at Las Vegas Summer League, it doesn't sound like the communication about what's next with the show has been great. Granted, there's plenty of time to get that figured out, but the fact that there is confusion at all with late October not that far away is concerning. Maybe it's best to keep expectations low and hope for the best.
Concern-o-meter: 1/10
This one was proposed by my editor Tyler Batiste, who watches way too much 'Law & Order: Special Victims Unit.' The infamous 'Roundball Rock' song NBC has used for its NBA coverage for so long has been blaring over countless ads in preparation for the NBA's return. It's on NBC. It's on Peacock. It's on the USA Network. Chances are, if you're watching something on any of those platforms, you're hearing 'Roundball Rock' a lot. Is it going to grow tiresome? Will a new generation of basketball fans/watchers like it? Does it still hit the same as it always did?
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As someone who didn't stop listening to that song during the 23-year hiatus the NBA had from NBC, I can tell you there is not much concern from me. If you don't like the song, you're wrong. This song was still a ringtone. It was a text tone. It was an MP3 on my iPod (yes, I'm incredibly old). It was even burned into some mix CDs back when we were still doing that. 'Roundball Rock' won't get tired. It will get stronger. It will inspire the next wave of basketball lovers.
Ba-ba-ba-ba-ba-basketball! Gimme! Gimme! Gimme the ball because I'm gonna dunk it!
(Top photo of LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo: Stacy Revere / Getty Images)
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