NFL's underrated and overrated teams in 2025: Bills, 49ers could tumble; Chargers looking up
By now, NFL teams have assembled most — if not all — of the puzzle pieces for the coming year, and expectations are beginning to materialize.
Every NFL season features its fair share of overrated squads and underrated teams. Some projected contenders will disappoint and some middle-of-the-road teams will surprise and exceed expectations.
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Here's a look at some of the most overrated and underrated teams and why things may or may not work out for them in the 2025 season.
Vegas gives Buffalo the third-best odds to win the next Super Bowl, behind Philadelphia and Baltimore. The Bills are coming off a 13-4 2024 campaign — their sixth consecutive double-digit win season and fifth straight AFC East title — and quarterback Josh Allen is the reigning MVP. Buffalo hopes the growth from second-year wide receiver Keon Coleman and additions of veterans Joshua Palmer and Elijah Moore to a unit led by Khalil Shakir (76 catches, 821 yards, four touchdowns) will make Allen and the offense even more potent.
It remains to be seen, however, if the Bills can resolve a contract dispute with two-time 1,000-yard rusher James Cook. And, more importantly, can a defense hit hard by injury in 2024 better support Allen and company this season? The Bills already know they'll be without defensive linemen Michael Hoecht and Larry Ogunjobi for six games as both serve suspensions for violating the NFL's performance-enhancing drug policy. The team hopes free agent acquisition Joey Bosa can help bolster its pass rush, but the oft-injured Bosa already suffered a calf injury in May (he's expected back for training camp). A shaky defense against Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson isn't ideal.
Despite their 6-11, injury-plagued 2024 season, the 49ers remain a popular Super Bowl pick. John Lynch's talent evaluation skills and Kyle Shanahan's ability to squeeze everything he can out of a roster combine to fuel optimism.
But a quick rebound could prove more challenging than some expect. Gone are mainstays Deebo Samuel, Aaron Banks, Dre Greenlaw, Charvarius Ward and Talanoa Hufanga after an offseason that Lynch described as 'uneasy.' The GM said in a recent interview, 'We had to get younger and we had to get a little cheaper,' and the 49ers did accomplish both of those goals while also awarding quarterback Brock Purdy a $265 million contract.
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Despite a smart draft, the 49ers very well could endure some growing pains. He's healthy right now, but the injuries have started to pile up for left tackle Trent Williams, who played in just 10 games last season; and running back Christian McCaffrey, who appeared in only four games in 2024. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk will miss a significant stretch while recovering from a torn ACL and MCL in his right knee suffered last October. Asking second-year pro Ricky Pearsall to assume a big role alongside veteran Jauan Jennings — who is seeking a new contract — is a big ask, so George Kittle will be called on for continued dominance. The Niners will have little margin for error this season.
Detroit (and Kansas City) posted the best record in the league last season at 15-2, and oddsmakers gave the Lions strong early votes of confidence for Super Bowl contention. But the Lions could take a step back in 2025, and not just because they lost former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn to head coaching jobs. The retirement of four-time Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow and free agency departure of right guard Kevin Zeitler also left huge holes in the heart of an offensive line that last season paved the way for one of the top rushing attacks and enabled quarterback Jared Goff to post the second-best passer rating in the league.
Cincinnati boasts a great offensive trio in Joe Burrow and his recently handsomely compensated receivers Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. But winning meaningful games in this league requires a strong defense, and that's where the questions begin for Cincinnati.
Things had grown stale under coordinator Lou Anarumo, so the Bengals fired him and replaced him with Al Golden. The team remains at odds, however, with veteran pass rusher Trey Hendrickson and first-round pick Shemar Stewart, who has yet to sign his contract because of concerns about a clause that could void future guarantees. It remains to be seen when/if the Bengals can resolve either matter and position their defense for improvement.
Overtaking the Kansas City Chiefs for the AFC West crown will prove challenging, but the Chargers appear poised to make a big leap forward as they enter Year 2 under Jim Harbaugh. They'll remain committed to running the football after adding veteran Najee Harris (assuming he recovers as expected from his Fourth of July fireworks injury) and rookie Omarion Hampton to the backfield. But Justin Herbert should build on the improved efficiency and effectiveness he displayed under Harbaugh's tutelage, and rookie Tre Harris could quickly develop into a favorite target. Defensively, look for tone-setting linebacker Daiyan Henley to build on last season's career year while rookies Jamaree Caldwell and Kyle Kennard help bolster the front seven.
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Replacing Mike McCarthy with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer felt like an underwhelming head coaching move. Top defensive player Micah Parsons' unresolved contract status continues to hang over the team. Cornerback Trevon Diggs and linebacker DeMarvion Overshown remain in the rehabilitation stage after season-ending injuries. The running back position remains underwhelming. As a whole, expectations aren't very high outside of the organization.
But the healthy return of Dak Prescott could dramatically improve an offense that floundered without him last season. The pairing of George Pickens with holdover CeeDee Lamb, Jalen Tolbert and tight end Jake Ferguson could make it hard for defenses to key on any one weapon — as long as Pickens can carry himself with maturity. A rebound from last year's 7-10 record and contention with Washington for a playoff spot behind Philadelphia might not be out of the question.
The Cardinals last season doubled their win total in Year 2 under Jonathan Gannon. But they're still looking for their first winning season since 2021, and only their second since 2015. Nobody is picking the Cardinals to win the NFC West, but after an offseason devoted to aggressively upgrading the defense, additional strides forward seem possible. The Cardinals have a strong rushing attack, and they just need Marvin Harrison Jr. to deliver on his potential in Year 2 and give Kyler Murray a game-changing target. If everything falls into place, the Cardinals could make things interesting in the division.
After forcing their way into the playoffs in 2022, the Jaguars took a slide backward in 2023 and then completely fell off a cliff in 2024, going 4-13 and getting head coach Doug Pederson fired.
This year's Jacksonville reset has a youthful theme, led by 39-year-old rookie head coach Liam Coen and 34-year-old GM James Gladstone. Intent on infusing the franchise with life, they jumped up in the NFL Draft to No. 2 to pick dynamic two-way player Travis Hunter, and then worked to retool their offensive line and shore up the defense.
If Coen can position Trevor Lawrence to finally live up to his potential — just like he did with Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay last season — Jacksonville has a chance to rebound. Fortunately for the Jaguars, they're in the AFC South. The Texans have won back-to-back division championships but the other contenders are the rebuilding Titans and the Colts, who remain limited by quarterback struggles.
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; photos of George Kittle, Justin Herbert and Josh Allen: Thearon W. Henderson, Michael Owens, Mike Mulholland / Getty Images
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