Nippon Ishin no Kai could join ruling coalition, if the conditions are right
The first condition is that someone other than Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba heads the LDP-led government. The second is that Osaka be designated as Japan's backup capital, a key party goal.
Following an Aug. 1 meeting of Nippon Ishin parliamentarians, party co-leader Seiji Maehara, a Lower House member, said no one expressed an opinion against joining an LDP coalition.
'However, we are not considering a coalition with the Ishiba Cabinet at this point in time,' Maehara said.
Immediately following the July 20 Upper House election, Nippon Ishin chief Hirofumi Yoshimura, who also serves as Osaka governor, was asked about the possibility of the party becoming the third member of the ruling coalition.
He used similar language to Maehara, saying Nippon Ishin was not thinking about entering the coalition at this time. While avoiding a direct call for Ishiba to resign over the Upper House loss, Yoshimura also noted the opposition within the LDP to his remaining in office and said it would be extremely difficult for the LDP to get legislation passed now.
A Nippon Ishin senior executive, Osaka Mayor Hideyuki Yokoyama, said that while the basic stance of the party is that it will remain outside the ruling coalition, the LDP minority government is now in a tight spot that might open the door to negotiations over the Osaka region becoming designated as a backup capital area, a key aspiration of the opposition party.
'We need a secondary metropolitan area that includes backup functions for crisis management. If this great wish is fulfilled, all options (including for joining the coalition) should be put forward,' Yokoyama told reporters on July 25.
Though an opposition party, Nippon Ishin cooperated with the LDP in parliament earlier this year. The LDP secured Nippon Ishin's agreement for passage of the 2025 fiscal year budget in exchange for agreeing to Nippon Ishin's demands of educational reform and social insurance revisions.
In the Upper House election, Nippon Ishin won seven seats and is now the third-largest opposition party in that chamber, with 19 seats. It's the second-largest party in the Lower House, with 38 seats.
However, Nippon Ishin — under the leadership of Yoshimura and Maehara, who represents a Kyoto district — remains unable to expand its presence beyond the Kansai region, where it controls all 19 Lower House districts in Osaka Prefecture.
On the other hand, the LDP, having failed to win any of the four Osaka Upper House seats up for election last month, is now extremely weak in the prefecture. Welcoming Nippon Ishin into the coalition would give it more influence there.
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