China's Wang Yi in India: A reset for bilateral ties or just tactical realignment?
The visit is part of the special representative-level dialogue that the two countries agreed to resume, but may be read as part of a long-term strategy to reset bilateral relations between India and China. So the key questions: Why is the timing of Wang Yi's visit significant? Will the US factor move India and China closer? If yes, what would the agenda look like? How will both India and China navigate the Pakistan factor? Mint explains.
Why is the timing of Wang Yi's visit significant?
Wang Yi's visit to India would be much watched by both the US and Pakistan.It comes amid growing tensions between India and the US following President Donald Trump's announcement of an additional 25% tariff for purchasing Russian crude oil, taking the effective tariff on Indian goods to 50%.
Notably, during the meeting between Jaishankar and Wang Yi, there was renewed emphasis on: multilateralism, multipolar order and a multipolar Asia, noting the need for stability in global economy. This, in many ways, sets the agenda for the Modi-Xi meeting at the upcoming SCO meeting, which would be closely watched by the US.
Pakistan, for whom China was a trusted ally during Operation Sindoor, would also wait and watch as this renewed calculus plays out in South Asia.
Will the US factor move India and China closer?
The US factor is pushing China and India towards slow but pragmatic tactical realignment. This, amid border issues, the Pakistan factor, and competing claims for regional supremacy in Asia. For India, in the wake of a transactional US, a cautious alignment with China is a tactical move.
For China, India remains a huge market for Chinese goods, and for India, there is a need to plug back into the critical mineral supply chain, amidst geopolitical volatility. Currently, India is heavily dependent on imports for critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements (REE).
Relatedly, while India-Russia and China-Russia maintain strategic proximity, an India-China re-alignment can strengthen the possibility of a Russia-China-India axis, as a key counter pivot to the US hegemony.
If the US factor moves India and China closer, what would the agenda look like?
PM Modi is set to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping at the end of the month, his first visit to China in seven years, to attend the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. For India, China's position on de-escalation within time frames, restrictive trade practices, and position on cross-border terrorism, will be key to enhancing what EAM Jaishankar stated as the pillars of the relationship: mutual respect, mutual sensitivity and mutual interest.
How will both India and China navigate the Pakistan factor?
While a tactical realignment is both imperative and pragmatic for India and China, much remains to be seen how China balances its long-standing relationship with Pakistan, amid India's growing concern about cross-border terrorism.
While Pakistan remains a strategic partner for China, Pakistan is also now a ploy for US tactical moves in South Asia. There are slow but steadysigns that broader geopolitical calculus may temporarily bring in a realignment between India and China despite the Pakistan factor. But much remains to be closely watched given the trust deficit.
Will de-escalation be the real test for the sticking border issues between India and China?
As India and China move ahead on the possible path of tactical realignment, much depends on the progress of the time frames for de-escalation on the border between the two countries. Wang Yi's visit is expected to iron out the process for de-escalation before Modi visits China for the SCO summit.
This is Wang Yi's first visit to India following the Galwan Valley clash in 2020, which saw the relationship hit a complete low.However, ahead of the Kazan BRICS Summit (2024), there was a thaw in the relationship with both India and China committing to disengagement.
This was completed in Demchok and Depsang, with a resolve to move towards de-escalation. The ticklish issue of time frames for de-escalation still needs to be agreed on, and India has reiterated that momentum in bilateral ties is hinged on a stable and peaceful border.
Shweta Singh, associate professor, Department of International Relations, Faculty of International Studies, South Asian University.
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