Brazilian beef glut set to hit UK and EU markets

Irish Examiner

8 hours ago

A tsunami of Brazilian beef, diverted from the USA by a new 76.4% tariff, is the last thing already inflated world markets need.
American importers must now sharply reduce imports from Brazil.
For the rest of 2025, about 165,000 tons of displaced Brazilian beef must find a new home, and much of it may be attracted to the high-priced markets in the UK and Europe that Ireland depends on.
This market disruption could give us an early taste of the threat of the EU-Mercosur Partnership Agreement trade deal hanging over cattle farmers in Ireland, the UK, and Europe.
Soon, EU member states will assess a final consolidated agreement between Mercosur and the European Commission, and will decide if they can approve the trade deal. Such a deal would probably be enough to prevent beef farming in the EU recovering from its current low point.
Yes, EU beef prices are very high now, but that is only because years of rising input costs, labour shortages, and increasing environmental pressures eroded herd sizes.
In several parts of the world, farmers breeding for beef struggled too long to survive on low prices. Climate action pressure ground them down even further.
It's not guaranteed they can recover and increase the supply of quality beef from the suckler sector. Many moved away to other farmer enterprises, or are unable to expand now because of advancing years (beef farmers in many countries are generally older than the farmer average age, which is nearly 60 in Ireland).
Across the Atlantic, where cattle scarcity and record beef prices are also seen now, there is a perceptible trend of aging ranchers availing of the opportunity to cash in by selling off their herds.
Ireland and the UK, and the rest of the world, are short of beef. Beef-loving consumers have to grit their teeth and pay much inflated prices.
Will the market come to consumers' rescue, with the low supply generating high prices which incentivise beef farmers to increase production?
Maybe not. Here in Ireland, the Irish Cattle and Sheep Farmers' Association (ICSA) beef chairman John Cleary said the 3.8% drop in the number of cattle up to June "could double next year".
He said farmers were finding it harder and harder to maintain viable stocking rates. With supply dwindling, smaller processors could be squeezed out, he warned.
In Scotland, QMS Market Intelligence manager Iain Macdonald, said: 'The continued contraction of Scotland's livestock herds highlights the urgent need for action.'
He said high input costs, labour shortages, and elevated interest rates have reduced herds.
Meanwhile, Irish farmers have a ringside seat, as beef cattle prices in many parts of the world continue rising at record levels. Usually, Irish beef farmers are looking up at higher prices worldwide, but that is no longer the case.
Ireland now has the highest cattle prices for steer, heifer, or young bull beef in most of the UK or Ireland.
Scottish farmers are up there also, and narrowly ahead of the Irish steer beef price. But farmers in Ireland have been getting the top rates for heifers, cows, and young bulls.
In sterling terms, at last week's average prices, Irish farmers got nearly 658p/kg for steers, while the price was about 659p in Scotland. It was as low as 646.5p in the British midlands and Wales.
The nearest others get to the 661p for heifer beef at Irish factories was 657p in Scotland, with these cattle making as low as 645.4p in southern England. Young bull prices ranged from 654.5p in Ireland, back to 636p in Northern England.
As for the rest of Europe, prices at the beef processing level in Ireland shot above prices in most other EU member states since April, according to the Agri-Food Regulator's Beef Dashboard.
Now, while the EU average male carcase languishes at just over €6.70 per kilo, it has gone to €7.80 in Ireland, according to European Commission data.
Even as Irish cattle farmers enjoy prices for finished cattle projected to increase at least 35% compared to 2024, they are wondering where it will all end.
Weanling prices have also surged.
With input costs largely stable, these price improvements are translating into substantial income gains. And with cattle such an important commodity across tens of thousands of farms, Ireland's average farm income in 2025 is forecast by Teagasc to reach €48,500, 39% ahead of 2024, driven by dairy and drystock income gains.
But can the export markets that take up to 90% of Ireland's livestock products absorb the beef price rise?
About half of Ireland's beef goes to the UK, but what happens to that trading relationship, now that Irish prices have largely passed out UK prices?
Inevitably, other supplying regions will chip away at Ireland's dominance of the UK's beef import market.
Brazil and Australia are already reported to be increasing beef exports to the UK, an even more important international market destination this year, because UK imports are expected to increase 6%.
UK retail beef price inflation has exceeded 9%, which market analysts say will cut total beef sales by 2.5%. It is well known British consumers in such circumstances buy less beef, or switch to other meats.
Market information for the 12 weeks to mid-July indicated average UK prices for beef products had increased 13% year-on-year, resulting in a volume decline of 7.4% (9,498 tonnes), but a spend increase of 4.6%.
Price increases in the dining-out market are also turning UK consumers away from beef.