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Chinese Companies Set Their Sights on Brazil

Chinese Companies Set Their Sights on Brazil

New York Times20-06-2025
Chinese companies urgently need to find new markets. Competition is intense at home, where the collapse of the real estate market has left consumers reluctant to spend. And escalating trade tensions have made it more difficult and costly to sell things in the United States and Europe, long two of the largest destinations for Chinese exports.
As a result, some of China's biggest internet and e-commerce brands have set their sights on establishing themselves as household names in other parts of the world, like Southeast Asia, the Middle East and South America.
Brazil has emerged as the most coveted prize. Latin America's largest economy, with a population of more than 200 million people, is a beacon for China's delivery and ride-hailing companies looking to export their ruthlessly low-cost business models. Chinese e-commerce giants also see promise in Brazil as they seek new buyers for a flood of products after tariffs and other restrictions in the United States shut off their biggest export market.
Meituan, China's largest food delivery company, said in May that it would spend $1 billion to set up operations in Brazil. Mixue, the Chinese tea and dessert company that has eclipsed McDonald's as the world's biggest fast food chain, said it would hire thousands there. TikTok Shop, facing scrutiny in the United States and Britain about its Chinese parent company, launched in Brazil in May.
'Chinese companies are finding it harder to grow domestically,' said Vey-Sern Ling, an equities adviser in Singapore at the private bank Union Bancaire Privée. 'Exports and overseas expansion is one way to support continued growth.'
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Braskem S.A. (BAK): A Bull Case Theory
Braskem S.A. (BAK): A Bull Case Theory

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time10 hours ago

  • Yahoo

Braskem S.A. (BAK): A Bull Case Theory

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Building Scale in Gold: Equinox and Calibre Combine to Create Canadian Giant
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Building Scale in Gold: Equinox and Calibre Combine to Create Canadian Giant

1: Introduction: Equinox Gold is one of the most prolific Canadian mid-cap gold mining companies. As of the end of July 2025, Equinox Gold Corporation (EQX) has a market capitalization of approximately $6.4 billion, making it one of the more prominent mid-cap gold mining companies. This is the third mid-cap gold miner I have analyzed this month, following Eldorado Gold (NYSE:EGO) and Alamos Gold (NYSE:AGI). Warning! GuruFocus has detected 11 Warning Signs with EQX. Headquartered in Canada, Equinox Gold operates a diverse portfolio of assets primarily in North and South America, with a growing presence in Latin America. Equinox Gold shares similarities with Eldorado Gold and Alamos Gold, focusing on mining-friendly jurisdictions and committing to growth through disciplined capital deployment. In terms of production over the past 12 months, Equinox produced 655,458 gold ounces, which is slightly higher than the other two miners indicated above. Equinox Gold is known for its aggressive expansion strategy, having made several significant acquisitions in recent years, including the integration of the Aurizona and Castle Mountain mines. The company has made a significant advancement by acquiring Calibre Mining on June 17, 2025. This acquisition adds two high-quality Canadian mines to Equinox's portfolio: the Greenstone Mine in Ontario, which has recently commenced commercial production with 44,449 gold ounces in 1Q25, and the Valentine Gold Mine in Newfoundland, which is set to pour its first gold later this year. Together, these mines have the potential to produce nearly 600,000 ounces of gold annually. This new addition could bring Equinox's total production close to one million ounces by 2025, with the potential to exceed 1.2 million ounces as operations expand. This move is a major step toward establishing Equinox Gold as a leading gold producer in the Americas. However, while this growth-oriented approach offers exciting potential for investors, it also introduces a level of operational complexity and risks that should be carefully assessed before making a long-term investment in EQX. The production of 1Q25 originated from eight different mines. Despite being the highest first quarter in the company's history, with 145,290 gold ounces, gold production in 1Q25 has been noticeably lower than the two preceding quarters, as illustrated in the graph below: Equinox Gold is facing issues as it ramps up operations at the Greenstone Mine (equipment issues, lower-than-expected grades, and recovery problems have already led to a cut in 2025 production forecasts). Integrating Calibre's mines, particularly the new Valentine project, presents a challenge for the team, as they must manage complex logistics across Canada, the United States, Brazil, and Nicaragua. Balancing these technical issues while ensuring cost control, environmental compliance, and maintaining a stable workforce will be challenging. However, successfully navigating this situation is crucial for Equinox's future. Several factors contribute to Equinox Gold's All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC), which has risen to a record high of $2,065 per ounce in 1Q25 (see chart below). Notably, cost overruns in Brazil and the temporary suspension of operations at Los Filos have led to unrecovered fixed costs. Conversely, the price of gold received in 1Q25 was a record of $2,858 per ounce, which helped mitigate the negative effects in the first quarter. This trend is expected to continue in 2Q25, with the gold price likely to reach above $3,250 per ounce. In April 2025, operations at Equinox Gold's Los Filos mine were suspended due to the expiration of a land access agreement with the Carrizalillo community. While the company had agreements in place with two other local communities, Carrizalillo withheld its consent due to unresolved issues, including a lack of transparency regarding contractor income. This situation led to protests and a breakdown in negotiations. Consequently, Los Filos was removed from the 2025 production guidance and reclassified as a development-stage project. The suspension has delayed expansion plans and significantly reduced the mine's output potential for the year. Unless these issues are resolved soon, this suspension could jeopardize Equinox's broader production targets and diminish the strategic value of its operations in Mexico. For the reasons mentioned above, Equinox Gold appears to be riskier than both Eldorado and Alamos. It also has weaker free cash flow and does not pay a dividend, in contrast to Alamos, which has strong financials and stable operations. Alamos Gold is currently paying a very small dividend that may be increased in the future. While Equinox may seem to be trading at a discount, its short-term outlook remains uncertain, and the second quarter of 2025 will be crucial for understanding how Equinox is adapting. Therefore, Eldorado and Alamos provide more stability, better technical momentum, and slightly lower geopolitical risks, making them a safer option for gold-focused investors. Equinox Gold has aggressively expanded over the past five years, transforming into a major gold producer with a focus on the Americas. Key milestones include the 2020 Leagold merger, which significantly increased production capacity, and the 2021 Premier Gold acquisition, which secured a stake in Canada's Greenstone Project. The 2024 consolidation of Greenstone ownership and the 2025 merger with Calibre Mining further solidify Equinox's position as a top-tier producer, with nine operating mines and major growth assets, such as Valentine. These moves reflect a clear strategy: build scale, focus on stable jurisdictions, and increase long-term value through operational control and a robust project pipeline. 2: Equinox Gold entered the second quarter of 2025 with a solid, though moderately leveraged, balance sheet. Equinox Gold primarily operates as a gold mining company, with gold sales accounting for approximately 97% of its total revenue in the first quarter of 2025. The company began 2025 with strong operational and financial results, reporting solid gold production for the first quarter despite a sharp decline from the fourth quarter of 2024. It produced 145,290 ounces of gold in 1Q25, marking its highest output ever for a first quarter. This achievement was driven by a continued ramp-up at Greenstone, despite some challenges, and steady contributions from its core operations across the Americas. Equinox Gold reported a strong revenue performance, driven by record gold prices, but faced significant challenges to profitability due to operational disruptions. The company achieved a new first-quarter production record by producing 145,290 ounces of gold, primarily due to the ongoing ramp-up at its Greenstone project and consistent output from its portfolio across the Americas. Thanks to a substantial 38% increase in realized gold prices, reaching $2,858 per ounce (see chart above), along with a 27% growth in ounces sold (147,290 ounces), Equinox achieved an impressive 76% year-over-year increase in revenue but down 26.3% quarter over quarter, totaling $423.7 million in 1Q25 as shown in the chart below. This top-line strength highlights Equinox's core identity as a pure-play gold producer and demonstrates its ability to capitalize on favorable market conditions. 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On a positive note, income from mine operations rose to $33.7 million, more than doubling the $11.4 million reported in 1Q24. This increase was largely driven by Greenstone's growing contribution of $24.4 million. The company also reported a modest EBITDA of $81.04 million and experienced a deficit of $39.2 million in free cash flow, due to a low operational cash flow of $54.49 million. Equinox's balance sheet remains moderately leveraged, with $178.26 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities. The net debt was approximately $1.215 billion as of March 31, 2025. This financial position highlights the significance of the recent merger with Calibre Mining, which was completed on June 17, 2025. Calibre shareholders received 0.35 Equinox Gold shares for each Calibre share, reflecting a 10% premium over Calibre's pre-announcement trading price. The completion of the Calibre acquisition marks a significant milestone for Equinox Gold, strengthening its position as a larger and more diversified gold producer across the Americas. With flagship assets like the Greenstone Project and the soon-to-be fully operational Valentine Mine, Equinox is on track to become Canada's second-largest gold producer by the time Valentine reaches full production, which is anticipated in late 2025. This merger not only aims to expand the company's scale but also seeks to transform Equinox into a more resilient, balanced, and opportunity-rich enterprise for the long term. The merger aims to establish a more diversified gold producer, enhancing scale, cash flow, and financial flexibility to manage debt maturities and pursue growth opportunities. However, such a deal always has its share of issues, and investors should be cautious not to be overly optimistic. In summary, Equinox Gold's 1Q25 results reveal a company at a critical juncture. The combination of record production and rising gold prices drove exceptional revenue growth and cash flow, but operational disruptions and higher costs led to a wider net loss. Moving forward, the successful integration of Calibre's assets, continued ramp-up at Greenstone, and disciplined cost management will be key to turning its strong top-line momentum into sustainable profits and shareholder value. Furthermore, the indefinite suspension of Los Filos is also a major unexpected event for Equinox Gold, both operationally and strategically. As one of its higher-cost mines, Los Filos added volume but diluted margins. Its closure in April 2025 will likely improve the company's average cost profile but reduce overall production (Los Filos produced 31,518 ounces in 1Q25). The larger issue to consider here is the long-term implications: without community agreements, the asset risks becoming stranded, which would lock up a substantial portion of reserves and limit growth opportunities. In the short term, Equinox needs to rely more on its Greenstone, Mesquite, and newly acquired Calibre assets to maintain output. At the same time, rebuilding trust and engagement in Mexico will remain a critical challenge moving forward. 3: Gold Holds Strong Above $3,300 as Global Trust Fractures. Gold prices have stabilized around $3,322 per ounce after hitting a record high of $3,500.05 on April 22, 2025. Although the market has cooled slightly, the broader trend indicates significant structural changes in global investor surge in gold prices reflects more than just a shift toward safety; it indicates a profound erosion of trust in traditional financial and geopolitical anchors. Inflationary pressures remain elevated due to sustained fiscal expansion, supply chain disruptions, and increasing protectionist policies. At the same time, ongoing geopolitical tensions, especially the instability in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, continue to heighten global outlook for long-term U.S. government bonds is gradually declining. Real interest rates have fallen into negative territory, and there are growing concerns about the increasing federal debt, particularly in light of the recently enacted spending bill and escalating tariff disputes. These issues raise doubts about the future strength of the dollar. On the other hand, the market has been thriving and continues its upward trajectory without pause since the "liberation day" shock. This exuberant market behavior often signals the potential for a significant and prolonged correction, which could ultimately benefit gold as once viewed as anachronistic, is being redefined as a critical strategic asset in a world where fiat currencies are losing their credibility. With limited new mine supply and strong demand from central banks, gold's structural support appears robust. While short-term corrections are inevitable, the elevated price levels suggest that the revaluation of gold may signal not just a price spike, but a fundamental shift in the monetary current macroeconomic and geopolitical trends persist, a sustained price floor above $3,200 could become a lasting aspect of the new economic landscape. This likely scenario is very favorable for Equinox Gold and other gold miners, which have not. 4: Technical Analysis: Descending Channel Pattern. Note: Technical Analysis uses StockCharts as a chart background. Equinox Gold is forming an ascending triangle pattern, with resistance around $6.75 and support near $6.20. Although an ascending triangle is typically viewed as a bullish chart pattern, it also signal a potential bullish breakout, especially when selling pressure begins to wane. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 55 and rising, hinting at a possible retest of the $6.20 support level before either dropping back to lower support or rally again to $6.75 and eventually cross the may be wise to sell a portion of your shares when the stock price rises between $6.70 and $6.80. If the stock breaks out, the next support level will be at $7.10, at which point I recommend selling another part of your position. I believe that selling all of your shares is not the best option; therefore, it would be prudent to retain about 30% of your position for the longer term. Make sure to keep an eye on the volume, as it might indicate an upcoming reversal. Utilizing the LIFO (Last In, First Out) method to sell part of your position is crucial, especially if the stock demonstrates a false bullish breakout followed by a quick and prolonged retracement. For further details, please refer to the chart above. Conversely, increasing your position between $6.22 and $6.10 seems reasonable. If a breakdown occurs, the next support level is $5.80. Warning: The technical analysis chart should be updated regularly to ensure accuracy. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data

Polls open in Bolivia's national elections that could end decades of socialist rule
Polls open in Bolivia's national elections that could end decades of socialist rule

CNN

time13 hours ago

  • CNN

Polls open in Bolivia's national elections that could end decades of socialist rule

After a lackluster campaign overshadowed by a looming economic collapse, Bolivians voted on Sunday for a new president and parliament in elections that could see a right-wing government elected for the first time in over two decades. The vote, which could spell the end of the Andean nation's long-dominant leftist party, is one of the most consequential for Bolivia in recent times - and one of the most unpredictable. In the run-up to Sunday, a remarkable 30% or so of voters remained undecided. Polls showed the two leading right-wing candidates, multimillionaire business owner Samuel Doria Medina and former President Jorge Fernando 'Tuto' Quiroga, locked in a virtual dead heat. Voting is mandatory in Bolivia, where some 7.9 million Bolivians are eligible to vote. 'I have rarely, if ever, seen a situational tinderbox with as many sparks ready to ignite,' said Daniel Lansberg-Rodriguez, founding partner of Aurora Macro Strategies, a New York-based advisory firm. A right-wing victory isn't assured. Many longtime voters for the governing Movement Toward Socialism, or MAS, party, now shattered by infighting, live in rural areas and tend to be undercounted in polling. With the nation's worst economic crisis in four decades leaving Bolivians waiting hours in fuel lines, struggling to find subsidized bread and squeezed by double-digit inflation, the opposition candidates bill the race as a chance to alter the country's destiny. 'I have rarely, if ever, seen a situational tinderbox with as many sparks ready to ignite,' said Daniel Lansberg-Rodriguez, founding partner of Aurora Macro Strategies, a New York-based advisory firm. The outcome will determine whether Bolivia — a nation of about 12 million people with the largest lithium reserves on Earth and crucial deposits of rare earth minerals — follows a growing trend in Latin America, where right-wing leaders like Argentina's libertarian Javier Milei, Ecuador's strongman Daniel Noboa and El Salvador's conservative populist Nayib Bukele have surged in popularity. A right-wing government in Bolivia could trigger a major geopolitical realignment for a country now allied with Venezuela's socialist-inspired government and world powers such as China, Russia and Iran. Doria Medina and Quiroga have praised the Trump administration and vowed to restore ties with the United States — ruptured in 2008 when charismatic, long-serving former President Evo Morales expelled the American ambassador. The front-runners also have expressed interest in doing business with Israel, which has no diplomatic relations with Bolivia, and called for foreign private companies to invest in the country and develop its rich natural resources. After storming to office in 2006 at the start of the commodities boom, Morales, Bolivia's first Indigenous president, nationalized the nation's oil and gas industry, using the lush profits to reduce poverty, expand infrastructure and improve the lives of the rural poor. After three consecutive presidential terms, as well as a contentious bid for an unprecedented fourth in 2019 that set off popular unrest and led to his ouster, Morales has been barred from this race by Bolivia's constitutional court. His ally-turned-rival, President Luis Arce, withdrew his candidacy for the MAS on account of his plummeting popularity and nominated his senior minister, Eduardo del Castillo. As the party splintered, Andrónico Rodríguez, the 36-year-old president of the senate who hails from the same union of coca farmers as Morales, launched his bid. Rather than back the candidate widely considered his heir, Morales, holed up in his tropical stronghold and evading an arrest warrant on charges related to his relationship with a 15-year-old girl, has urged his supporters to deface their ballots or leave them blank. Voting is mandatory in Bolivia, where some 7.9 million Bolivians are eligible to vote. President Arce appealed to the population to reject Morales' calls, arguing that those spoiling their ballots were doing damage to democracy. 'We urge the population to go out and vote,' he said while casting his vote in Bolivia's capital of La Paz. 'We must demonstrate unity and commitment to democracy.' Doria Medina and Quiroga, familiar faces in Bolivian politics who both served in past neoliberal governments and have run for president three times before, are struggling to stir up interest as voter angst runs high. 'There's enthusiasm for change but no enthusiasm for the candidates,' said Eddy Abasto, 44, a Tupperware vendor in La Paz torn between voting for Doria Medina and Quiroga. 'It's always the same, those in power live happily spending the country's money, and we suffer.' Whoever wins faces daunting challenges. Doria Medina and Quiroga have warned of the need for a painful fiscal adjustment, including the elimination of Bolivia's generous food and fuel subsidies, to save the nation from insolvency. Some analysts caution this risks sparking social unrest. 'A victory for either right-wing candidate could have grave repercussions for Bolivia's Indigenous and impoverished communities,' said Kathryn Ledebur, director of the Andean Information Network, a Bolivian research group. 'Both candidates could bolster security forces and right-wing para-state groups, paving the way for violent crackdowns on protests expected to erupt over the foreign exploitation of lithium and drastic austerity measures.' All 130 seats in Bolivia's Chamber of Deputies, the lower house of Parliament, are up for grabs, along with 36 in the Senate, the upper house. If, as is widely expected, no one receives more than 50% of the vote, or 40% of the vote with a lead of 10 percentage points, the top two candidates will compete in a runoff on Oct. 19 for the first time since Bolivia's 1982 return to democracy.

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