
John Ivison: Conservatives used a meat grinder on the Liberals. They needed a wooden stake
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But the ideas that formed the basis for the Liberal platform are mostly taken from Carney's book Value(s), which had input from Butts and policy advisor, Tim Krupa.
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As the prospect of a trade war with the United States crystallized, Butts began crafting the narrative that became 'Trump wants to break us so he can own us.'
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But the central concept of the Liberals' 'Canada Strong' slogan— that the country has to build a single market and explore trading opportunities elsewhere as a means of increasing leverage for a trade negotiation with Trump — is all Carney.
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It was Butts's job to turn that into a campaign narrative. He said he attended dozens of focus groups where voters rejected Poilievre, not because he was too like Trump, but because he was too inexperienced.
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That formed the basis for the ballot question the Liberals pushed: 'Is Pierre Poilievre the person you want sitting across the table from Donald Trump?'
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People who were motivated by their anxieties about a trade war invariably answered in the negative.
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But the Conservative agenda, as represented by its anti-establishment, pro-worker 'boots not suits' policy, resonated with people who were unhappy with the status quo and the prospect of a fourth Liberal term.
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They saw Poilievre as someone who would disrupt a system that wasn't working for them. The resilience of the Conservative vote on election night, particularly in blue-collar towns that hadn't voted Conservative in years like Sudbury and Stoney Creek in Ontario, suggests that the strategy wasn't entirely wrong.
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But even senior Conservatives concede that you can't build a winning coalition if you alienate women, boomers and university-educated voters.
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The Liberals succeeded in neutralizing many Conservative initiatives by adopting similar positions when it came to income tax cuts or promising more timely approvals for energy projects.
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By the time the campaigns hit Montreal for the leaders' debates, the election had settled into an uneasy stalemate. The Conservatives began to whittle away at the Liberal lead in steady increments, but one pollster estimated that at that rate, it would take until May 8th before they would catch up, well after election day.
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Poilievre needed an incendiary moment to blow up the Liberal trajectory and it looked as if he had one with Carney's platform, which promised $129 billion in new measures and deficits as far as the eye could see.
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Poilievre's problem was that he had yet to release his own platform, and when he did, it was almost as profligate, with $109 billion in new measures.
The only other occasion that threatened to derail the Carney Express was the horrific car-ramming attack in Vancouver. The incident opened the door for the Conservatives to talk about their safe-streets policies, but all sides were aware that politicizing the tragedy would result in a backlash.
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In the event, Caley, the campaign co-director, and former Vancouver mayor, Gregor Robertson, now a Liberal MP, were able to arrange for Carney to visit the site, alongside community members and B.C. Premier David Eby.
The Liberal campaign ended in Victoria, B.C., on Sunday night, three minutes before the election day cut-off.
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The result has proven to be much closer than the Liberals thought it would be. Internal projections were in the range of high-180, mid-190-seat range. It now looks like the Liberals have fallen short of 172 seat majority status, though recounts may take them above the current count of 169.
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There were Liberal reversals in places where the received wisdom suggested there would be successes because of the collapse of the NDP vote.
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In the Niagara region, for example, when Carney visited at the start of the final week, there were hopes the party would pick up an additional seat in Niagara Falls. On the night, they failed to win that seat from the Conservatives and lost Vance Badawey's seat of Niagara South to the Conservatives. This was the type of border community that 'should' have voted Liberal.
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The Liberals gained 2.8 million new voters in this election, while the Conservatives added 2.2 million.
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The national turnout was nearly five percentage points higher than the last election, adding two million voters from 2021.
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But one of the stories of the night was the demise of the smaller parties. The NDP lost 1.8 million voters, the Greens lost 158,000 and the People's Party a whopping 702,000, compared to 2021.
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Voters, it turns out, have minds of their own and a large number of former NDP supporters appear to have switched to the Conservatives.
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The collapse of all the minor opposition parties, bar the Bloc Québécois, will have serious implications for future elections, particularly for the one party that needs smaller, progressive parties to draw votes from the Liberals.
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Poilievre and his team ran a disciplined and well-oiled campaign. But voters ultimately rejected the Conservative leader (literally, in the case of his former constituents in Carleton), while buying Carney's pitch for stability with moderate change.
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But in large part, the 45th general election was over before it started, with the demolition of Trudeau and Singh.
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CTV News
19 minutes ago
- CTV News
Canadians want politicians to skip summer break, but optimistic about results from Carney's Liberals: Nanos
Prime Minister Mark Carney makes his way through the foyer of the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Thursday, June 5, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick The majority of Canadians think the country's politicians should work through the summer to deliver the 'concrete results' they expect this year, according to a Nanos survey. Results of a survey commissioned by CTV News during the first week of June suggest most polled expect to see some type of progress by the end of the year on major initiatives undertaken by the new Carney government. Nearly four-in-10 (38 per cent) surveyed said they expect results, while another 12 per cent said they believe they'll be waiting until 2026 or 2017 to see progress. Respondents were not asked about specific initiatives, but the recently elected Liberals campaigned on a platform that included tax cuts for the middle class, protections against the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs, diversified trade and 'Canada's most ambitious housing plan since the Second World War.' Asked when they expect to see the results of initiatives implemented under Prime Minister Mark Carney's leadership, an optimistic three per cent thought they'd see changes by the end of the month. Seventeen per cent said they don't expect to see results from the major Liberal initiatives at all, according to Nanos data. Men were more likely than women to say they didn't expect much from the current government, at 23 per cent compared to 12 per cent. People aged 18 to 34 were more pessimistic about their expectations than those 55 and older, with 25 per cent of the younger group expecting no concrete results, compared to 10 per cent of the older demographic. Sitting through the summer As for what respondents said they'd like to see from federal politicians, about two-thirds said they think it's important or somewhat important that the new government work through the summer, rather than take the usual break. Respondents in Ontario and the Prairies felt most strongly about a summer sitting, while those in Quebec were less concerned. Still, a majority in those regions felt it was important to some extent that leaders forgo the break. The Liberals said previously they planned to delay the budget release until the fall, after the House of Commons returns in mid-September. Opposition parties have been critical of this decision, as well as of the new government's throne speech, which has been described as vague and lacking in detail on economic policies. Canadians appear to be split on whether the Liberal government should table a budget before the fall, with 53 per cent surveyed saying it was important or somewhat important. Men, residents of the Prairies and respondents under the age of 55 were more likely to say they wanted a budget sooner than the fall sitting. Methodology from Nanos This study was commissioned by CTV News and the research was conducted by Nanos Research. Nanos conducted a random-digit-dialed dual-frame hybrid telephone and online survey of 1,120 randomly selected Canadians aged 18 or older, between June 1 and 3. The results were weighted by age and gender using the latest census information (2021) and geographically stratified to represent the Canadian population, Nanos says. The margin of error is ±2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.


Globe and Mail
29 minutes ago
- Globe and Mail
Stocks Set for Muted Open With Focus on U.S.-China Trade Talks, U.S. Inflation Data Awaited
June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM25) are up +0.08%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM25) are down -0.01% this morning, pointing to a muted open on Wall Street as investors turn their attention to talks between the U.S. and China in London, and also await the release of key U.S. inflation data later in the week. Top officials from the U.S. and China meet in London today for talks that investors hope will signal progress toward easing trade tensions between the world's two largest economies. The talks come after a call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping last week, in which the two agreed to resume discussions on tariffs following a temporary truce reached in mid-May. 'The meeting should go very well,' Trump wrote on Truth Social on Saturday. The U.S. president told reporters on Friday that negotiations with Beijing were 'very far advanced.' In Friday's trading session, Wall Street's major equity averages ended in the green, with the benchmark S&P 500 notching a 3-1/2 month high and the blue-chip Dow posting a 3-month high. The Magnificent Seven stocks advanced, with Alphabet (GOOGL) rising over +3% and (AMZN) gaining more than +2%. Also, chip stocks gained ground, with Marvell Technology (MRVL) climbing nearly +5% and Micron Technology (MU) rising over +2%. In addition, Tesla (TSLA) gained more than +3% after CEO Elon Musk indicated he would ease tensions with President Trump following Thursday's heated spat. On the bearish side, Lululemon Athletica (LULU) tumbled over -19% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the retailer cut its full-year EPS guidance. The U.S. Labor Department's report on Friday showed that nonfarm payrolls rose 139K in May, stronger than expectations of 126K. Also, U.S. May average hourly earnings rose +0.4% m/m and +3.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.7% y/y. In addition, the U.S. unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2% in May, in line with expectations. Finally, U.S. consumer credit rose $17.87B in April, stronger than expectations of $11.30B. 'While it may not be firing on all cylinders, it's far from showing signs of a major breakdown. [Friday's] solid labor report buys the Fed more time, but Chair Jerome Powell may have a hard time justifying a restrictive rate policy should inflation continue lower,' said Bret Kenwell at eToro. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said on Friday that there may be a path to cutting rates in the second half of the year, but reiterated that officials should hold steady for now and wait for uncertainty to subside. 'For now, I am strongly of the belief we sit here, let some of this uncertainty resolve itself,' he said. U.S. rate futures have priced in a 99.9% probability of no rate change at next week's monetary policy meeting. The U.S. consumer inflation report for May will be the main highlight this week. The report will be scrutinized for any indications that Trump's tariffs are feeding through into prices. Barclays economists said in a note that they anticipate the inflation data will show 'the first signs of tariff-related price pressures.' They expect upward price pressures on 'a wide range of core goods categories,' such as apparel, household furnishings, new vehicles, and other goods. Also, investors will be keeping an eye on other economic data releases, including the U.S. PPI, the Core PPI, Initial Jobless Claims, Crude Oil Inventories, and the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary). Market participants will also focus on earnings reports from several notable companies, with Adobe (ADBE), Oracle (ORCL), Chewy (CHWY), and GameStop (GME) scheduled to release their quarterly results this week. U.S. central bankers are in a media blackout period before the June 17-18 policy meeting, so they are prohibited from making public comments this week. Despite President Trump's push to pressure central bankers into swiftly cutting interest rates, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues have signaled they have time to evaluate the effects of trade policy on the economy, inflation, and employment. Meanwhile, Apple (AAPL) kicks off its annual Worldwide Developers Conference today in Cupertino, California. The event is expected to feature the company's new products, services, and partnerships. Today, investors will also focus on U.S. Wholesale Inventories data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect the final April figure to be unchanged m/m, compared to +0.4% m/m in March. In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.483%, down -0.69%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.06% this morning as investors cautiously await the outcome of another round of U.S.-China trade talks. Trading was subdued on Monday as markets in several countries, including Switzerland, Denmark, and Norway, were closed for the Whit Monday holiday. Defense stocks lost ground, while real estate stocks outperformed. Meanwhile, European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said over the weekend that he cannot determine whether rate cuts are finished for this year and that the next steps remain completely open. Separately, ECB policymaker Boris Vujcic said on Monday that the central bank should not 'overreact' to Eurozone inflation dipping below its 2% target, as there are good reasons to believe it will rise again. Investor focus this week is also on the Eurozone's industrial production and trade data for April, which will provide insight into how Trump's initial on-off tariff onslaught affected manufacturing and exports at the beginning of the second quarter. In corporate news, Alphawave IP Group Plc ( soared over +23% after Qualcomm agreed to acquire the company for about $2.4 billion. At the same time, WPP Plc ( fell over -1% after the advertising group announced that its chief executive officer, Mark Read, would step down by the end of 2025. The European economic data slate is empty on Monday. Asian stock markets today settled in the green. China's Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.43%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.92%. China's Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today as investors looked ahead to the high-level U.S.-China trade talks in London. Rare-earth and technology stocks led the gains on Monday. Sentiment was supported by signs that de-escalation could be back on track following the recent flare-up in tensions between the two superpowers. China approved some applications for rare earth exports ahead of the talks. Boeing has also resumed deliveries of commercial jets to China for the first time since early April, signaling a reopening of trade flows. China Securities analysts said in a note that they think 'there could be some favorable outcomes from the meeting, as Trump has hinted at some positive signs.' Still, the benchmark index's gains were limited as investors digested weak economic data from the country. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics released on Monday showed that China's consumer prices fell for a fourth consecutive month in May, while producer deflation worsened to its deepest level in nearly two years, as the economy grapples with trade tensions and a prolonged housing slump. Separately, data showed that China's exports grew in May, but at a significantly slower rate as U.S. tariffs continue to affect trade despite the temporary trade truce between Beijing and Washington. Many economists anticipate the nation's exports to slump later this year, with the average U.S. tariff on Chinese goods still hovering near 40%, which could further intensify China's disinflationary pressures. In corporate news, Wenyi Trinity Technology jumped +10% after announcing plans to acquire a 51% stake in Anhui Zhonghe Semiconductor Technology for 121.4 million yuan. The Chinese May CPI came in at -0.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of -0.2% y/y. The Chinese May PPI stood at -3.3% y/y, weaker than expectations of -3.1% y/y. The Chinese May Trade Balance arrived at $103.22B, stronger than expectations of $101.10B. The Chinese May Exports came in at +4.8% y/y, weaker than expectations of +5.0% y/y. The Chinese May Imports stood at -3.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.9% y/y. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index ended higher today, supported by optimism surrounding trade talks between Beijing and the U.S. Chip stocks led the gains on Monday. Yunosuke Ikeda, chief macro strategist at Nomura, said, 'The trade talks in London are, at the very least, a step in the direction of easing restrictions on chip shipments between the U.S. and China.' Government data released on Monday showed that Japan's economy shrank less than previously estimated in the first quarter, as consumption was revised higher. Still, the revision does little to ease concerns among analysts and economists that economic growth is losing momentum. 'Tariffs and tariff threats are damaging exports and industrial production. Household spending is weak as inflation outpaces wage growth, and pay gains may slow further if tariff pain derails the economy,' said Moody's Analytics economist Stefan Angrick. Japan's economy remains at risk of technical recession, which could push back the Bank of Japan's timeline for raising interest rates. Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said on Monday that Japan must recognize that rising interest rates would increase the government's debt-financing costs and impact its spending plans. Ishiba is expected to hold a bilateral meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump this week to announce a trade agreement. They will likely meet on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit that begins on June 15th, or potentially a day earlier in Washington. In other news, Reuters reported on Monday that Japan's government was weighing the repurchase of some super-long bonds it had issued at low interest rates. In corporate news, Otsuka Holdings climbed over +5% after the drugmaker said its experimental treatment for a potentially life-threatening kidney disease reduced high levels of protein in patients' urine by more than half. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -3.31% to 22.78. The Japanese GDP Annualized has been reported at -0.2% q/q in the first quarter, stronger than expectations of -0.7% q/q. The Japanese April Current Account n.s.a. stood at 2.258T yen, weaker than expectations of 2.560T yen. The Japanese May Economy Watchers Current Index came in at 44.4, stronger than expectations of 43.8. Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers Tesla (TSLA) fell over -3% in pre-market trading after Baird downgraded the stock to Neutral from Outperform. Air mobility stocks jumped in pre-market trading, extending Friday's gains after President Trump signed an executive order launching an electric 'Vertical Takeoff and Landing' integration pilot program. Joby Aviation (JOBY) and Archer Aviation (ACHR) are up over +9%. Today's U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Monday - June 9th Caseys (CASY), VinFast (VFS), Calavo Growers (CVGW), Graham (GHM), Limoneira (LMNR), Motorcar Parts (MPAA), Lakeland Industries (LAKE), Comtech (CMTL).


Toronto Star
an hour ago
- Toronto Star
Carney set to make defence announcement in Toronto as NATO eyes spending boost
OTTAWA - Prime Minister Mark Carney's office says he will be in Toronto today to make an announcement related to 'defence and security priorities.' The announcement is slated for 10 a.m., after which he is set to tour a local military facility before holding a news conference at 1 p.m. Defence ministers from NATO countries met in Brussels last week to discuss raising the member spending target on defence to as much as five per cent of GDP. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW Canada has never met NATO's existing spending target of two per cent since it was established in 2006, and the topic will loom large when NATO leaders meet later this month in the Netherlands. Carney promised during the recent election campaign to move up Canada's deadline for meeting the two per cent threshold from 2032 to 2030 or sooner, but hasn't yet revealed a plan for meeting that figure. The NATO secretary-general's annual report released this past April says Canada's defence spending likely hit 1.45 per cent in 2024. This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 9, 2025. Politics Headlines Newsletter Get the latest news and unmatched insights in your inbox every evening Error! Sorry, there was an error processing your request. There was a problem with the recaptcha. Please try again. Please enter a valid email address. Sign Up Yes, I'd also like to receive customized content suggestions and promotional messages from the Star. You may unsubscribe at any time. By signing up, you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google privacy policy and terms of service apply. Politics Headlines Newsletter You're signed up! You'll start getting Politics Headlines in your inbox soon. Want more of the latest from us? Sign up for more at our newsletter page.