Baghdad: Ground zero in the battle for Iraq's Parliament

Shafaq News

4 days ago

Shafaq News/ Iraq's old-guard power players are reclaiming the spotlight as Capital Frontmen, each locking in the number one ballot position in Baghdad ahead of a high-stakes parliamentary election in the country's most contested arena.
Among the political 'veterans' contesting the capital are Nouri al-Maliki, leader of the State of Law Coalition; Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani of the Euphrates Movement (Al-Furatain); Hadi al-Ameri, head of the Badr Organization; Former Parliament Speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi of the Taqaddum Party; and Mohsen al-Mandalawi, head of the Al-Asas Coalition. All are entering the race with individual lists.
These figures remain "popularly accepted" in Baghdad, according to Mukhtar al-Moussawi, a senior official in the Badr Organization, who described, to Shafaq News Agency, the upcoming election on November 11, 2025, as 'difficult and decisive,' reflecting rising tensions within the ruling coalition and beyond.
It remains unclear where the largest voting bloc will lean, especially if the previous election serves as a benchmark. At the time, the Sadrist Movement secured 27 seats before its leader, Muqtada al-Sadr, withdrew his parliamentary bloc amid fierce disputes over the results and subsequent calls to rerun the vote.
Al-Moussawi attributed the fragmentation to recent moves by al-Sudani to distance himself from the Coordination Framework, a Shiite bloc that underpins much of the current government.
Al-Sudani's Coalition
Al-Sudani unveiled a broad electoral alliance under the banner of the "Reconstruction and Development Coalition' bringing together seven political forces: al-Sudani's own Euphrates Movement, the Bilad Sumer Gathering led by Labor Minister Ahmed al-Asadi, the National Coalition of former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, Karbala Innovation Alliance headed by Karbala Governor Nassif al-Khattabi, Ajyal Bloc of MP Mohammed al-Sayhoud, National Solutions Alliance led by Mohammed Sahib al-Daraji, and the National Contract party led by Faleh al-Fayyadh.
The Coordination Framework, once a unified force, will now enter the vote with multiple lists. State of Law, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, and Ammar al-Hakim's Hikma Movement are each fielding their slates. Still, leaders maintain the option to reunify post-election, potentially forming a consolidated bloc depending on the outcome.
All eyes are now on the potential gains of several blocs, particularly those that underperformed in Baghdad during the last election compared to the Sadrists' strong showing. Key questions linger about the possibility of the State of Law Coalition surpassing its previous 11-seat tally, or the Euphrates Movement winning more than a single seat. Similar doubts surround other factions that secured only minimal representation at the time.
Regional and Local Contexts
Political analyst Mujashaa al-Tamimi framed the return of veteran leaders as part of a larger recalibration driven by internal and regional developments. Domestically, Baghdad's role as the epicenter of political power has magnified its importance, making it a crucial battleground for influence.
'The resurgence of younger, reform-oriented figures poses a visible challenge to traditional elites,' al-Tamimi noted to Shafaq News, emphasizing that these established leaders are keen to reinforce their relevance and maintain control of the political narrative.
Regionally, Iraqi factions are navigating shifting dynamics. Waning Iranian influence, changes in Syria's political regime, and pressure on Hezbollah in Lebanon have redrawn the regional landscape. Also, Ongoing US-Iran talks, viewed as nearing resolution, may further reshape power alignments, prompting Iraqi players to seek legitimacy at home.
'Elections in Baghdad send the clearest message, those who want to influence Iraq's future must begin here, not in neighboring capitals,' al-Tamimi added.
Baghdad: The Heart of Competition
Former MP Kazem al-Sayyadi pointed to Baghdad's electoral weight, 69 parliamentary seats, equal to roughly five southern provinces combined, as the core reason for the fierce contest. He also flagged growing concerns over vote-buying, with reports of ballots fetching up to one million dinars or $300 in some districts, as he revealed to Shafaq News.
Despite the mounting momentum, the race remains unpredictable. Former lawmaker Kamel al-Ghurairi observed that while some figures wield nationwide influence, 'no single leader is guaranteed dominance in Baghdad,' he stated in an interview with Shafaq News.
Iraq's Independent High Electoral Commission confirmed that over 29 million Iraqis are eligible to vote, with ongoing updates to the voter registry. Campaigning is expected to begin shortly before the election date.