Democrats stuck in political ‘wilderness.' Will they pivot to the center in 2026?

Yahoo

27-05-2025

The Democratic Party suffered significant blows in 2024 with President Donald Trump's reelection and the narrow loss of both chambers of Congress.
Now, months into the president's second nonconsecutive term, Democratic leadership is left to analyze how the party should move forward.
'I do think, right now, the party … is sort of in the wilderness,' said Flavio Hickel Jr., an associate professor of political science at Washington College.
Recent election results aren't providing much clarity.
In April, Democrat-backed Judge Susan Crawford beat Trump's pick to fill a seat on the Wisconsin state Supreme Court by 10 points — despite tech billionaire and Trump ally Elon Musk dumping millions of dollars into the race.
But last week, incumbent Pittsburgh Mayor Ed Gainey, a progressive Democrat in a city that leans blue, lost his primary election bid, leaving some to wonder if the national party will take a more centrist foothold as it turns its eyes to the 2026 midterm elections.
'You're going to see that kind of conflict as the party figures out what it wants to do' and 'how it can reconfigure,' Hickel said.
There was clear infighting among Democrats in 2024, as President Joe Biden waited nearly a month before the Democratic National Convention to announce his withdrawal from the race, giving Vice President Kamala Harris little time to campaign against a formidable Republican candidate like Trump.
The party found itself split between voters who thought Biden was too old and not nearly progressive enough, and those who stood by the incumbent out of party loyalty or otherwise.
Analysts say that battle is likely to continue in the 2026 midterm elections.
'There's obviously going to be a fight in the party between progressives and moderates and, as is normal, both are going to claim that the other side had too much influence,' said Todd Eberly, a professor of political science at St. Mary's College of Maryland. 'Loss really does bring out divisions among the party as they try to figure out the best path forward for them.'
But political scientists are also noticing a generational shift among the Democratic Party.
Roger Hartley, the dean of the University of Baltimore's College of Public Affairs, said a 'changing of the guard' is slowly occurring as party mainstays like Biden and U.S. Reps. Steny Hoyer and Nancy Pelosi prepare to move on.
That shift was visible in Maryland in 2024, as U.S. Reps. John Sarbanes and Dutch Ruppersburger and U.S. Sen. Ben Cardin declined to seek reelection, paving the way for a younger, more diverse state congressional delegation.
'Some of this, I think, is generational, and it's somewhat natural,' Hartley said. But, will we see Democrats move to the center, 'or are they going to act upon this backlash and make the argument that they just didn't have the right candidates in place?'
Regardless, Hartley said that parties tend to reevaluate their values and message after major losses.
Like the Republican Party under former President Barack Obama, Hartley said Democrats are struggling to identify a path forward and determining if their values that are under attack, like DEI and immigration, are 'worth fighting to the mat for.'
If they are, he said, they'll run those candidates — likely some with little national name recognition, like governors or current members of Congress.
'Democrats probably want fresh and or exciting faces, and that's what they're looking for, and they're looking at their bench and they're trying to find those fresh, exciting faces who can appeal to their voters,' Hartley said.
As midterm campaigns begin to ramp up, the Maryland Democratic Party is focused on giving voters a seat at the table and will support candidates who are 'willing to fight like hell versus' those interested in maintaining the status quo, said Maryland Democratic Party spokesman Joe Francaviglia.
'The Maryland Democratic Party is constantly trying to make sure we bring more voters into the fold and hear as many voices as possible,' Francaviglia said. 'We never want to be caught by surprise, and so we see election results from across the country and try to understand what are voters saying while trying to put forward our vision for what can make Maryland and our party as strong as possible.'
Maryland's Democratic Party is also at a critical turning point, as Chair Ken Ulman prepares to step down. Hickel said that this could provide an opportunity for the state party to undergo a tactical shift as it gears up for the 2026 midterm elections.
Maryland has a Democratic supermajority and outward unity among its top elected officials. Political infighting among progressive and conservative members of the Democratic Party in a small blue state like Maryland could splinter integrity, making it easier to oust incumbents or flip some seats red.
In 2026, every seat in Maryland's 188-member General Assembly will be up for election, and Gov. Wes Moore and Attorney General Anthony Brown, both Democrats, will campaign for their respective second terms in office. Each of the state's U.S. House representatives will also be up for reelection. U.S. Rep. Andy Harris, a Trump ally and the sole Republican member of the Maryland congressional delegation, could also face a significant Democratic challenger.
In spite of problems seen among the national party and an incoming state party chair, Maryland Congressman Johnny Olszewski, who won his seat in November, said that there is much 'more that unites Democrats, especially in this moment,' than divides, and the Trump administration is crystalizing just how stark of a difference there is between Democrats and Republicans.'
'We know that actions, including legislation we just considered last night' to line the pockets of the ultra-wealthy, eliminate health care coverage for millions of Americans, and end food programs for hungry children 'is a reminder of precisely that,' Olszewski said in an interview Friday afternoon. 'I think were having really important conversations within our party about what our priorities should be.'
But, with only a little over a year until the midterm elections, will Democrats be able to unify themselves enough to take back Congress? Eberly says, 'Absolutely … just because that's what we do.'
'We elect a unifying government in the general election' and flip Congress in the midterms, he said. 'Republicans, right now, in Congress have a very narrow majority' and Trump has an approval rating in the low 40s.
'That's a recipe for the party out of power to pick up somewhere around 30 seats.'
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