A Tense Poland Votes as the World Watches

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2 days ago

Poland will hold a presidential runoff election on Sunday, with polls indicating a neck-and-neck race between a liberal pro-European Union mayor and a Trump-backed conservative from the Law and Justice (PiS) party.
Leaders throughout Europe will be watching closely because of the elections implications for the future of NATO, Ukraine, and the European Union.
Most political power in Poland lies in parliament, where Prime Minister Donald Tusks centrist coalition holds a slim governing majority with waning popularity. But the president has the power to veto, and outgoing conservative incumbent Andrzej Duda, whose second term expires this summer, has used that power often.
Tired of seeing his reforms stall at the Presidential Palace, Prime Minister Tusk has endorsed Warsaws progressive mayor, Rafa''.ord('').';'''.ord('').';' Trzaskowski, citing the need to restore the rule of law and weed out corruption in the justice system. But Donald Trump favors Karol Nawrocki of the Law and Justice party. Trump and Nawrocki met in the Oval Office last month as a sign of mutual support, and last week at the Conservative Political Action Conference (held strategically in Poland), Trumps Homeland Security Secretary, Kristi Noem, said Nawrocki "needs to be the next president of Poland."
Nawrocki, who likes to compare himself to Trump, was underestimated in initial polls, which had him trailing Trzaskowski by 4-6 points before the first round of voting. Trzaskowski led the pool of 13 first-round candidates with 31.3% of the vote, but Nawrocki trailed closely with 29.5% of the vote, a margin slim enough to rattle Trzaskowskis campaign.
Set to face off in Sundays two-man runoff, both candidates are scrambling to attract voters who supported other candidates in round one. The third-place finisher, Slawomir Mentzen, earned 14.8% of the vote. Branding himself the "common sense" candidate, Mentzen once said, "We dont want Jews, homosexuals, abortion, taxes and the EU." He has amassed a large TikTok following, appealing mostly to discontented young male voters.
Dangling his endorsement, Mentzen asked both candidates to sign a declaration that includes a pledge to resist the EU and oppose Ukraines accession to NATO. Breaking from his own partys stance on Ukraine, Nawrocki signed the declaration. Trzaskowski has not.
Nawrockis campaign has recently been mired by reports that he secured prostitutes at a luxury hotel on the Baltic Sea. In response, Nawrocki said on his campaigns X account Wednesday, "Media slander did not destroy President Trump. It will not destroy Karol Nawrocki, either."
Nawrocki clearly has the edge in securing Mentzens voters. But Trzaskowski could receive a boost from Polands more casual voters who failed to cast a ballot in round one but may be inclined to vote in the higher-stakes round two.
Opinion polls have Trzaskowski winning by less than a percentage point - hardly a lead at all. Nawrocki, like his ally in the White House, has proven to overperform in the past. But with the race this tight, neither candidate has looked particularly confident in the week leading up to the election.
Tensions are rising across the country. Polands crossroads is a microcosm of the continents broader crossroads as Europeans decide whether to support continued unification (with all its benefits and costs) or a retreat toward nationalism. Though domestic policies like abortion, gay rights, and energy policy swirl in the background, the question at the heart of this election is whether Poland will choose to buy in or opt out of Europes unifying institutions.
With Ukraine, officials at the EU, and the rest of the world watching, we wont know the answer until Sunday when Poles go to the polls.
Addison Graham is global affairs correspondent for RealClearPolitics.