Priced out of the American Dream: How new H-1B rules are deepening inequality

Time of India

a day ago

In the sunlit classrooms of top American universities, international students have long pursued the H-1B visa as a logical next step, a bridge from academic excellence to professional opportunity.
For decades, it symbolized merit, upward mobility, and a fair shot at the American dream. But a new shift in US immigration policy is poised to redraw that bridge, replacing its foundations of chance and academic achievement with one built squarely on salary figures.
The Biden administration's proposed overhaul of the H-1B visa system, replacing the existing random lottery with a wage-level-based selection mechanism, is being framed as a measure to reward skill and restore integrity.
But beneath the surface lies a sharper, more divisive reality: a growing disparity that privileges wealth over potential, experience over promise, and corporate scale over entrepreneurial ambition.
The end of the lottery and the beginning of the pay-to-compete era
Until now, H-1B hopefuls were entered into a random lottery when applications exceeded the annual limit, 65,000 regular cap slots, plus 20,000 for advanced degree holders from US institutions. It was a system imperfect, yes, but egalitarian in its essence.
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An entry-level coder had the same statistical odds as a machine learning architect.
That paradigm is now at risk.
Under the Department of Homeland Security's (DHS) proposed rule, priority will be given to those offered higher wages, ranked according to Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) wage levels, from Level I (entry-level) to Level IV (expert-level). In simple terms: the bigger your paycheck, the better your odds of securing a visa.
What this means is seismic. An international graduate fresh out of an Ivy League computer science programme, earning $83,000 at a promising startup (Level I), may now lose out to a mid-career hire drawing $150,000 at a tech conglomerate (Level IV), even if both possess equal talent, and the graduate is US-educated.
A system tilted toward the elite
For tech giants flush with capital, this change is welcome. No longer will they have to compete on a level playing field with smaller startups or mid-sized firms trying to sponsor international talent.
They can simply outbid.
And for American workers, particularly those with growing concerns about wage suppression, the reform may appear protective on paper. By discouraging the hiring of lower-paid H-1B workers, the hope is to reduce exploitation and preserve wages.
Yet critics warn that the very workers these rules aim to shield may now face intensified competition from higher-paid foreign professionals, who will be favored over domestic mid-tier talent due to their specialization and salary levels.
But the most immediate impact will be on the international student community, especially those transitioning from F-1 to H-1B status. For them, this isn't just policy—it's personal.
Innovation at risk: A startup squeeze
Beyond individual dreams, this rule could stifle innovation. Startups—long seen as engines of disruptive growth—often operate on tight margins and cannot match the salaries of multinational corporations. With limited ability to offer Level III or IV wages, their access to global talent could be choked.
In essence, this creates a dual-track immigration economy: one reserved for those with institutional might and another fading away for risk-takers, early-career professionals, and the underfunded visionaries.
A shift in philosophy, not just policy
Proponents argue the wage-based system aligns better with a merit-driven immigration model. But in doing so, it risks conflating compensation with competence. Salary may be a market signal, but it is not always a proxy for skill, especially across fields like academia, research, and public service, where salaries lag behind private industry.
An AI researcher at a university lab might earn far less than a data engineer at a bank, despite offering more specialized knowledge. By elevating salary as the singular metric of worth, the US risks overlooking entire sectors of value and impact.
A call for balance and equity
The new rule is currently under White House review, with a period for public comment. It is not yet final, but its implications are already reverberating across campuses and corporate HR departments alike.
The intention may be to restore fairness, but fairness cannot exist in a system where opportunity is priced, and potential is dismissed for lack of immediate profit.
To preserve its reputation as a destination for the world's brightest minds, the United States must strike a balance, rewarding genuine skill and curbing abuse, without closing the door on those just beginning their journey. Immigration policy must be rooted not only in economic logic but in a recognition of human ambition, educational investment, and long-term contribution.
Until then, the message to many aspiring immigrants is unmistakable: If you can't afford the price of entry, the American dream may no longer be yours to dream.
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