Is Tata Motors a deep value buy or a turnaround trap?

Indian Express

a day ago

At a time when tariffs are changing the global supply chain, domestic automotive demand is slowing, geopolitical tensions are increasing commodity pricing, and the automobile sector is seeing artificial intelligence (AI) and energy transitions, Tata Motors is making a bold move to acquire Italian commercial vehicle maker Iveco, its second biggest acquisition after Corus.
All this comes after the Indian automotive giant turned its losses into profits and net debt into net cash.
FY25 saw Tata Motors' first-mover advantage in electric sports utility vehicles (SUVs) erode as competition intensified and demand slowed in the EV space, following the expiry of the FAME II incentive for fleet EVs. Its stock price started falling from August 2024 onwards.
Other auto stocks, which dipped in the second half of 2024 due to weak festive sales, recovered in 2025, but Tata Motors' shares continue to trade 43 per cent below their all-time high of 1,142 at Rs 655, the level last seen in November 2023. Jefferies expects the stock to fall to Rs 550 amid short-term challenges.
Behind the underperformance is Tata Motors' announcement to demerge the passenger vehicle (PV) and commercial vehicle (CV) businesses, calling it the next logical chapter in its turnaround.
The balance sheet of the companies was split effective July 1, while operations will be demerged from October 1, 2025. In the third quarter, the CV business will be split into a new listed company under the name Tata Motors Limited (TML), whereas the PV business will be renamed Tata Motors Passenger Vehicle Limited (TMPVL).
This corporate restructuring has limited the upside of Tata Motors' shares. The stock price could experience short-term price fluctuations as the demerger is executed.
Demerger: The next chapter in Tata Motors' turnaround
Back in 2008, Tata Motors expanded its PV business in the international market with the acquisition of Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), when the latter was struggling to grow sales. While the JLR turnaround was no mean feat, it became the biggest revenue generator for Tata Motors, accounting for 73 per cent of its revenue in Q1 FY26. JLR provided Tata Motors with access to technology to improve the safety and design of domestic PVs.
Tata Motors is now looking to replicate the PV turnaround story in the CV space with the acquisition of Iveco, which earned 74 per cent of its 2024 revenue from Europe. Tata Motors' CV strategy is to expand international business by targeting its diversified powertrain products in Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and North Africa.
Iveco's CY 2024 revenue stood at EUR 14.1 billion (Rs 1.44 lakh crore), double the size of Tata Motors' CV revenue of Rs 75,055 crore (FY25). Both companies have limited overlaps in the geographies they cater to. Tata Motors caters to SAARC countries (India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal) while Iveco caters to Central and Eastern Europe and Latin America.
If everything goes as planned, the acquisition could make Tata Motors the world's fourth-largest company by truck sales. The Rs 38,000 crore acquisition of Iveco could make the CV business bigger than the PV business.
Execution is of utmost importance in an acquisition of this magnitude. Demerger of CV and PV businesses will simplify the business structure, give greater strategic clarity and agility, facilitating execution. However, investors are not excited about the acquisition as Tata Motors' share price continued to fall after the acquisition.
Like Corus and JLR, Iveco will bring scale and diversification, but will moderate the profitability and return on capital employed (ROCE) of Tata Motors' CV business.
A scaled business generates returns when there is high demand, and the European CV market is declining. As per data from the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA), new European van and truck registrations decreased by 13.2 per cent and 15.4 per cent, respectively, in H1 2025, led by Germany, France, and Italy. Tata's classic move of acquiring business in a declining market reminds one of the Corus and JLR deals, where the timing of the acquisition (just before the 2008 financial crisis) made the deal a debt trap.
Iveco will form a part of the demerged Tata Motors CV business, which will be net debt-free at the time of the demerger. The addition of Rs 38,000 crore acquisition debt will create a net debt position, which the company looks to pay with its free cash flow (FCF). The net-debt/EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation) for the demerged CV entity is expected to remain below 1.0.
However, if the profitability of the CV business deteriorates, the combined business could require significant capital infusion.
Tata Motors' passenger vehicle business
Tata Motors' PV and JLR businesses are going through both opportunities and challenges. The company is losing domestic market share to competitors like MG Motor India in the EV space and Mahindra & Mahindra in the SUV space. The entry of Tesla into India could heat up the competition. Tata Motors is looking to beat the competition with its new launches across multiple powertrains — CNG, electric, and ICE (internal combustion engine).
Meanwhile, troubles at JLR's three biggest markets led to a decline in revenue and profit before tax to 9.2 per cent and 49 per cent, respectively, in Q1FY26.
In April 2025, JLR paused exports to its biggest market, the United States, in response to a 25 per cent tariff on imports from the UK and Europe. The company took a GBP 250 million hit from the US tariff. However, these costs will ease in the coming quarters as the US reduced the tariff to 10 per cent on UK imports and 15 per cent on EU imports from July 1.
JLR's sales in its second biggest market — the UK — also plunged as it winds down legacy Jaguar models.
Its fourth-largest market — China — is also seeing a slowdown from macro headwinds, contraction of bank credit, and an increase in retailer insolvency. Moreover, strong competition from domestic companies like BYD is affecting the sales of foreign car manufacturers like Tesla and Ford.
All the above factors reduced JLR's Q1 FY26 Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margin to 4 per cent from 8.9 per cent in Q1 FY25.
JLR has lowered its FY26 EBIT guidance to 5-7 per cent from the previous 10 per cent and free cash flow guidance to nil from the previous GBP 1.8 billion to reflect the above challenges.
Tata Motors is optimistic about the second half and expects the transition to new-generation models like the Altroz facelift and Harrier EV, and refreshed Harrier and Safari ICE models to lift festive season sales.
In the short term, other automakers that focused on the Indian markets reported better earnings growth.
● Maruti Suzuki India reported 8 per cent year-over-year revenue growth as sluggish domestic demand was offset by strong exports.
● Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) reported a 31 per cent YoY growth in operating revenue as it gained market share in the PV segment.
● Hyundai Motor India saw a 5.6 per cent dip in revenue due to weak domestic demand.
While the above three saw a slight dip in operating margin as commodity prices rose, Tata Motors reported a dip in operating margin due to US tariffs, geopolitical uncertainties, and the wind-down of legacy JLR models.
The weaker earnings, lack of strategic clarity around potential returns after demerger, and higher exposure to the US and UK markets are pulling down the Tata Motors' share price in the short term.
Among the large automakers, Tata Motors shares trade at the lowest price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11x, which is even below its 10-year median of 14.2x.
However, this comparison is not perfect: Maruti Suzuki and Hyundai Motor India are pure-play PV makers, whereas Tata Motors has a more diversified portfolio. Post-demerger, its PV business will be more directly comparable with these peers.
Trading at such a low P/E multiple might appear to be a potential value opportunity to some. In the short term, however, moderation in profitability is expected as the company executes Turnaround 2.0. Strong and timely execution is key to the success of the demerger and unlocking of shareholder value.
Tata Motors Chairman N Chandrasekaran said that the business is structured to thrive in disruptive economic cycles from geopolitical conflicts, military escalations, the redrawing of supply chains and tariff regimes, AI, and energy transition. How the next phase of the turnaround plays out will be crucial in determining whether this is indeed a value opportunity
Note: We have relied on data from www.Screener.in throughout this article. Only in cases where the data was not available have we used an alternate, but widely used and accepted source of information.
Puja Tayal is a financial writer with over 17 years of experience in the field of fundamental research.
Disclosure: The writer and his dependents do not hold the stocks discussed in this article.
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