The case against Katie Porter's inevitability

Politico

07-08-2025

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THE ONE TO BEAT — Katie Porter moved swiftly after Kamala Harris passed on the governor's race to project a sense of inevitability around her candidacy — and she clearly has the advantage in early polling.
But the race is far from settled. And there's a crowded field of Democratic contenders now preparing to test Porter's potential vulnerabilities, including her baggage from a failed Senate bid last year and lukewarm relationship with some powerful party insiders.
'I don't believe this race has a front-runner in it,' said Kyle Layman, consultant to Xavier Becerra, another Democratic candidate and a former Health and Human Services secretary. 'The race really started [last week]. We don't even know where the field is at.'
Five key dynamics that could test Porter's initial dominance:
SENATE CAMPAIGN HANGOVER: Porter's campaign touts polling from last spring that found her solidly in the lead — with the support of 36 percent of likely Democratic voters — if Harris didn't run. Moreover, in an extra crowded primary, Porter could conceivably land in the top two with a quarter of the vote or less.
But critics of Porter point out she finished in third place in last year's Senate primary, behind now-Sen. Adam Schiff and Republican Steve Garvey. They question if her 15 percent share of the vote in that March election could be Porter's ceiling. Porter was hammered by negative ads, and fellow Democrats, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, lined up behind Schiff. And don't forget how Porter irked fellow Democrats when she said the outcome was rigged (a comment she later said she regretted).
CASH-BURN RATE: Porter came out of the gate with strong fundraising numbers, but she's also spent a lot of money to raise money. Porter led the field with the $3 million she raised between March and June. In that same period, however, she spent at least $530,000 on digital fundraising services, including text and email blasts to small donors. Nathan Click, Porter's spokesperson, called the outreach 'one-time digital fundraising investments that are already paying dividends.' But if those investments don't pay off, and her online donors lag or drop off because they were more inclined to give in a past federal race than a state campaign where a Democrat is almost assuredly going to win, Porter would be in deep trouble.
Porter could also face a run for her money, literally. Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis already has about $9 million cash on hand between her two campaign accounts (most of which her campaign said can be transferred). Kounalakis is likely to have deep campaign pockets. She's well connected in wealthy San Francisco circles and is the daughter of prominent developer Angelo Tsakopoulos.
Another candidate who's pouring money into the contest is billionaire Stephen Cloobeck, who's put in $13 million of his own wealth. All of which is to say, Porter's fundraising prowess in past congressional runs might not translate in a statewide contest.
WHERE IS LABOR? Porter's populist policy ideas have garnered labor support in the past. But she has recently sought to shake the perception that she's as progressive as her mentor, Sen. Elizabeth Warren. And, during a Chamber of Commerce forum in June, she threw cold water on raising the minimum wage to $20 an hour in the next election.
California's labor unions were largely sitting on the sidelines, waiting for Harris' decision. Now, there's a mad dash among candidates vying for union muscle. Former state Senate leader Toni Atkins, a Democrat, has the two most significant labor endorsements so far: the carpenters and electrical workers. And if Porter's lead in the polls diminishes over time, that could make unions more willing to cross her for a candidate they view as more in line with their membership.
EXPERIENCED OPPONENTS: Porter is known nationally for her whiteboard routine and viral minivan memes — and her Senate run boosted her name ID statewide. But Schiff capitalized last year on her lack of relationships with colleagues, and his allies made her out to be someone who couldn't play nice. Her opponents can do that in the governor's race, too. On top of that, several of her opponents have deep political resumes and personal stories that could force her to compete for the spotlight.
Among others, Atkins was the first female and LGBTQ+ leader in the state Senate, and she often speaks about her childhood growing up in poverty in Appalachia ('She grew up with dirt floors in rural Virginia. Nothing was given to her. That means she carries a lot of empathy for people who are struggling,' said Rep. Scott Peters, a fellow San Diego Democrat. 'Not many people have the experience that Toni has.')
Becerra was state attorney general during the first Trump administration and touts the 122 lawsuits he filed to challenge Trump's policies. And Antonio Villaraigosa, the former Los Angeles mayor, touts his past as a teachers union organizer and ACLU leader.
PELOSI FACTOR: Pelosi, one of the biggest kingmakers in Democratic politics, could play an outsize role in shaping which candidate corners the support of some unions and major donors. She has already said she supports Kounalakis, her longtime ally and fellow San Franciscan.
It's unclear if Pelosi will go to the mat for Kounalakis in the way she did for Schiff in the Senate race — a key factor that blunted Porter's early momentum. And it's to be seen whether the party's two other California standard bearers — Harris and Gov. Gavin Newsom — will wade into the contest.
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BIG NEWS: On Wednesday, Aug. 27, POLITICO is hosting its inaugural California policy summit. At The California Agenda, some of the state's most prominent political figures including Sen. Alex Padilla, Katie Porter and Xavier Becerra will share the stage with influential voices in tech, energy, housing and other areas to chart the path forward for a state at the forefront of critical policy debates. The live and streamed event is free, but advanced registration is required. Request an invite here.
CAMPAIGN YEAR(S)
FIRST IN POLITICO: BUZZ FOR BECERRA — Former Biden chief of staff Ron Klain and other Democrats, including fellow tech industry alum Stephanie Peters, will hold a fundraiser for Becerra next month in Washington, our Christine Mui scooped in California Decoded this morning.
Tickets for the Sept. 16 reception range from $250 for family to $2,500 for hosts, according to a copy of the invite, which went out Wednesday.
Klain is now Airbnb's chief legal officer and gave $5,000 to Becerra in late July. Peters spent nearly 15 years at Microsoft as senior director of congressional affairs before leaving in February to become a tech policy lawyer for the House Foreign Affairs Committee. She donated $1,000 to Becerra this spring.
They're joined by several top Becerra aides from his time as President Joe Biden's health secretary and in the House — Debra Dixon, Krista Atteberry, Grisella Martinez and Anne Reid — on the fundraiser host committee, which is still being formed. Another host, David Thomas, frequently met with interests in Silicon Valley as Rep. Zoe Lofgren's former chief of staff and has lobbied for tech clients.
THE SCOOP
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: ICE CREAM ACTIVISM — Some Disneyland tourists got an eye-opening surprise last weekend as they rode the 'It's a Small World' boat ride: among the ride's cheerful animatronic characters was a raggedy, soot-covered doll holding a sign that read 'Remember Hiroshima.'
The stunt, a protest to raise awareness about U.S. military spending, including in the Middle East, was orchestrated by Ben Cohen, the activist and co-founder of Ben & Jerry's ice cream.
Cohen, who exclusively spoke to Playbook about the incident, said he plans to release a video today taking responsibility for the action (a photo of the doll caused a stir online this week). 'We need to tell our government that this is not what we want them doing with our money,' Cohen said.
He paid demonstrators who placed the doll on the ride; one was apprehended by security and banned from the park for life, Cohen said. He said the doll was quickly removed, and that the target wasn't Disney, but what he cast as the hypocrisy of America's values.
'The theme of that ride — 'It's a Small World After All' — is that kids all over the world care about each other,' Cohen said. 'The reality is our country is preparing to obliterate them.'
CLIMATE AND ENERGY
THROWING SHADE — The Trump administration loves to hate renewable energy. This time, it's California's $250 million Solar for All grant program that the feds are canceling. But rather than the White House, solar advocates are focusing much of their ire on the California Public Utilities Commission. Last night's California Climate breaks down why the CPUC is drawing heat as dreams of a sprawling community solar program collapse.
ON THE AGENDA
GUN TOWN HALL — The California Democratic Party is hosting a town hall in Orange County tonight featuring Chair Rusty Hicks, frontline Rep. Dave Min and former Rep. Gabby Giffords of Arizona — who resigned from Congress and founded the gun violence prevention group GIFFORDS after she was shot in the head in 2011. The 5 p.m. event will focus on criticizing Republican Rep. Young Kim — whose race is one of California Democrats' top priorities in the House this cycle — for her record on firearm restrictions.
TOP TALKERS
(NOT) ON GAMES — The 2028 Olympic Games are expected to draw thousands of foreign visitors to Los Angeles, an area where Trump's immigration crackdowns in recent months have taken an especially heavy toll. The New York Times reports the White House said it will allow into the country any athletes or members of an athletic team who are traveling for the World Cup or Olympics, but there will not be exceptions for fans from countries affected by the administration's travel bans as the State Department is encouraging people who want to watch the event to apply for visas as soon as possible.
PAYBACK POLITICS — The Trump Justice Department is asking a federal judge to impose 'substantial monetary sanctions' on a California lawyer who briefly halted but ultimately failed to block the deportation of an immigrant from Laos who pleaded guilty to attempted murder in the 1990s. As POLITICO's Josh Gerstein reports, the attorney appears to be the first target of Trump's vow to discipline lawyers who hit the federal government with lawsuits that the administration deems frivolous.
RENEWED FEARS — More than half a dozen Border Patrol agents jumped out of the back of a Penske truck at a Home Depot in Westlake and arrested 16 people, reviving fears of immigration crackdowns in the region, the Los Angeles Times reports. U.S. Border Patrol Sector Chief Greg Bovino, who has led operations since they began earlier this summer, described the raid as 'Operation Trojan Horse.'
AROUND THE STATE
— Stanford University's independent student newspaper and two noncitizen students are suing Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, claiming that federal immigration policies are being used to suppress protected political speech. (East Bay Times)
— An audit found several instances of financial mismanagement by San Dieguito Union High School District's school foundations. (The San Diego Union-Tribune)
— Southern California Mayor Ricky Estrada, an Air Force Reservist, will be leaving office temporarily due to a 6-month deployment. (KTLA)
Compiled by Juliann Ventura
PLAYBOOKERS
BIRTHDAYS — POLITICO's Nate Robson … Caitlin Legacki … Ron Christie … Wesley Derryberry of Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati
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