Adidas and Puma hit by tariffs, trends, and shifting demand
Trends on the street are shifting. Retro styles from Nike Inc., like the Killshot and Cortez, are making a comeback. Asics Corp.'s Onitsuka Tiger sneakers are also rising in popularity. Even in casual weekend settings, the Japanese brand is being spotted frequently—mirroring the Samba's past ubiquity. Unsurprisingly, Asics shares have outperformed competitors this year. Vans, too, appear to be mounting a resurgence, with shares of parent VF Corp. rising by as much as 24% on Wednesday amid signs of a successful turnaround.
Gulden acknowledged that demand for the Samba has slowed, though he attributed this partly to previous supply constraints. He noted that the style remains popular in some markets, especially when introduced in updated finishes like metallics and animal prints.
Still, the broader deceleration and heavier discounting in the U.S.—as noted by Stacey Widlitz at SW Retail Advisors—pose a challenge.
Another shift affecting Adidas is the growing consumer focus on performance over fashion. Sport-led brands such as On Holding AG are gaining momentum. This pivot toward athletic function has also stalled Puma's turnaround. Meanwhile, Nike CEO Elliott Hill has refocused on performance as the company's strategic core. Despite Nike's ongoing struggle with surplus fashion sneakers, its renewed emphasis on sport is yielding results. The Vomero running shoe, for instance, generated $100 million in sales since its February launch.
Gulden now faces two critical challenges.
First, he must identify the next breakout sneaker to follow the Samba's success. He has made strides with relaunches like the Superstar and by embracing martial arts–inspired low-rise styles. According to Gulden, models like the Taekwondo are starting to gain popularity, especially in Japan and South Korea, and may expand further in 2025. Following the Samba and Superstar, the next icon to be refreshed is the Stan Smith, the classic white tennis shoe that debuted over 40 years ago.
Second, Adidas must amplify its presence in performance running. Sales in this segment rose by 25% in the second quarter, although the brand is still struggling to meet demand for top-selling models. The company is preparing to introduce new running shoes that aim to combine everyday comfort with track-level performance—a territory currently dominated by On and Hoka, a brand owned by Deckers Outdoor Corp. The ideal outcome? One of these technical models becomes a cultural hit, too. Encouraging signs include the rising trend of wearing football boots casually—a category where Adidas already holds strong ground.
Gulden's product intuition remains a strategic asset. His ability to tap into cultural relevance, seen in collaborations like Oasis -themed apparel, continues to resonate. However, he now faces headwinds including tariffs, shifting consumer preferences, and a reinvigorated Nike. The upcoming World Cup in North America could help boost visibility—but it's Nike's home turf, and its newer sport-driven products will be widely available by then.
Puma's stock has more than halved in 2024, while Adidas shares have fallen over 30% since February. Nike, by contrast, has rebounded more than 40% since its April low, with investors optimistic about the brand's recovery. To keep pace with Nike and a wave of agile new rivals, Gulden must craft a fresh hit—possibly a new-generation Dad sneaker, built for both comfort and mass appeal.
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'If you produce more and more shoes and widen your product range — at the same time as you get less retail space because other brands are far stronger- then it gets difficult.' After Puma's profit warning, Hoeld linked the inventory challenge to big-picture questions that could take months to answer and even longer to execute on. 'Do we have the right products for our consumers and our wholesale partners?' he asked. 'If so, why is our brand not achieving the required visibility and engagement?' He promised to unveil his strategy in late October. The slump is badly timed. The sneaker world has transformed in the past decade as Adidas and Nike pulled back from many retail partners, prioritizing direct-to-consumer sales channels in hopes of boosting profits. That approach backfired, with consumers embracing smaller brands like On, Hoka and New Balance that secured their products more space on retailers' shelves. 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'Calling all troublemakers,' he said. 'For danger, risk and potential fugitive status.' Fast-forward just over a decade and there was little of that rebellious spirit in Puma's 'Go Wild' ad this spring, which was aimed at everyday runners looking for feel-good vibes. The campaign struggled to stand out against Adidas's no-stress 'You Got This' push, or On's video featuring Sesame Street's Elmo urging runners clad in the brand's plushly cushioned trainers to not be so hard on themselves — because 'soft wins.' Yet it's Puma's Speedcat sneaker that typifies the brand's turmoil. In 2023, Puma was slow to bring back its retro Palermo trainer to compete with Adidas's Samba. At the time, Puma leaders said they would punch back by owning the likely follow-up trend for thin-soled, 'low-profile' sneakers. Their hopes were pinned on the '90s-era Speedcat — originally a product of Zeitz's push to get Puma into motorsports — becoming a blockbuster. Celebrities including Jennifer Lawrence began to wear them in 2024 and Puma finally scaled up production earlier this year, with ex-CEO Arne Freundt saying it could be one of the hottest shoes of the summer. Puma now acknowledges the shoe simply hasn't caught on. Adding insult to injury, Adidas swooped in with its similar Taekwondo franchise to capture post-Samba demand, and it's now outperforming Puma's Speedcat models on StockX, according to the resale platform. The Speedcat was key to Puma's strategy to elevate the brand and help it command higher prices for other products. Instead, some versions of the 110 euro (127 dollar) sneaker can be purchased for as low as 88 euros on its website. Versions of the 100 euro Palermo are discounted as much as 30%. Adidas sells some versions of its Samba for nearly twice as much. Speich hopes Hoeld's decades of sales experience at Adidas will help. He spent years overseeing its retro footwear and apparel business, and led the Europe, Middle East and Africa division. He was head of global sales until October. If Puma can produce some hot new products, Hoeld may do a better job of getting them into the right stores in front of the right customers, according to Speich. It's not a matter of turning the brand 'upscale,' he added. Hoeld singled out the running franchise as having immediate potential. In 2021, Puma reentered the sport with its 'Nitro' foam shoes, winning praise from hardcore runners and professionals. But it was slow to target more casual buyers, and Puma is currently only available in 20 of running-chain Fleet Feet's nearly 300 locations in the US, for instance. 'When we talk innovation in our industry, running is one of these sports that matters,' Hoeld told reporters. 'We are going to make sure that Nitro is going to be seen globally as a key platform for future success of Puma.'
