Qatar's growth to stay strong in H2: StanChart
Doha
Qatar's economic momentum is expected to remain intact through the second half of 2025, driven by robust public investment, rising non-hydrocarbon sector activity, and an unwavering commitment to economic diversification, according to Standard Chartered's latest report, Global Focus – Economic Outlook H2-2025 released on Monday.
While Standard Chartered(StanChart) has marginally revised its global growth projection to 3.1 percent from 3.2 percent earlier in the year—citing persistent trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions—Qatar and the broader Middle East have emerged as notable exceptions, standing out for their resilience and forward-looking policy frameworks.
The bank has reaffirmed its 2025 GDP growth forecast for Qatar at 4 percent, supported by continued strength in both the hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon segments. Furthermore, the 2026 forecast has been raised to 5.5 percent, up from a previous estimate of 4 percent.
This revision reflects increased confidence in the timeline for Qatar's gas output expansion and projected growth in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. The 2026 growth outlook exceeds the average market expectation of 5.2 percent and aligns closely with the International Monetary Fund's forecast of 5.6 percent.
In addition to overall GDP growth, the report anticipates a substantial increase in Qatar's real GDP per capita, projected to reach approximately $110,000 by 2026. This milestone, Standard Chartered notes, supports the country's transition toward developed-market status and strengthens its case for inclusion in major emerging market indices.
A critical driver of this growth will be Qatar's non-hydrocarbon sector, which now contributes more than 60 percent to national GDP. The sector demonstrated notable momentum in the final quarter of 2024, growing by 6.1 percent year-on-year, the fastest rate among GCC economies. Key contributors to this uptick include tourism, financial services, and trade. The bank also highlighted the positive effects of recently implemented public-private partnership (PPP) legislation, which is expected to further boost infrastructure development and private sector involvement in national projects.
The report paints a contrasting picture globally. In the United States, the economy is showing signs of deceleration in H2-2025, impacted by elevated tariffs, weakening business sentiment, and tighter fiscal conditions. China, after a strong first half, is seeing a decline in export momentum, while Europe continues to battle recessionary risks amid unresolved trade issues withthe US.
Amid this uncertain global landscape, Qatar's economic resilience is especially noteworthy. The country benefits from a low fiscal breakeven oil price, prudent financial management, and a long-term vision for economic diversification, particularly through Qatar National Vision 2030 (QNV 2030). These elements have helped cushion the economy from external shocks and maintain growth stability.
Muhannad Mukahall, chief executive officer and head of coverage at Standard Chartered Qatar, emphasised the strength of Qatar's strategic vision. 'Qatar's long-term vision continues to set it apart in a volatile global environment,' he stated.
'As a bank with deep roots in the region and a longstanding presence in Qatar, Standard Chartered is proud to support the country's forward-looking policy agenda. Backed by strong fundamentals and a clear commitment to diversification, through Qatar National Vision 2030, Qatar is demonstrating how targeted reforms and strategic investments can unlock new engines of sustainable growth and keep the economy on a firm trajectory in 2025 and beyond,' he said.
Across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) region, growth is forecast at 3.4 percent for 2025, with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries—particularly Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia—continuing to benefit from a rebound in oil output following the reversal of OPEC+ production cuts and sustained reform efforts in non-oil sectors.
In addition, Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to deliver an upside surprise in 2025. Its relative insulation from global economic volatility, along with reduced dependence on exports to the US, a strengthening of local currencies, a downward inflation trend, and structural reforms in major economies such as Nigeria and South Africa, all contribute to this positive outlook.
Despite prevailing global risks, including uncertainty around trade tariffs and financial market volatility, Standard Chartered remains optimistic about Qatar's prospects. The report highlights Qatar's strong banking sector liquidity, manageable public debt, and proactive investments in key sectors such as logistics, tourism, and technology as fundamental pillars that will continue to drive sustainable economic growth in the coming years.
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