SP500 Futures Analysis & Targets

Globe and Mail

27-04-2025

SP500 Futures
(ESM25)
There are two methods we use at ONE44 to find support and resistance in the markets.
The first are major Gann squares, these are the yellow horizontal lines on the chart. On the chart you can see where the market turned multiple times at these levels.
The second is Fibonacci retracements and this is what most of this post will be about.
There are a few basic rules when using the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines.
This is the short version.
A 38.2% level keeps the trend intact and new highs/lows should follow.
A 23.6% level shows the market is extremely strong, or weak.
A 61.8% level can send the market 61.8% of where it just can from and cause wide swings keeping the market in a trading range.
A 78.6% level can send it 78.6% of where it just came from and even be the end or start of a Bull market.
From 4/7/25,
The big plunge overnight took it to 23.6% back to the 2009 low at 4850.00.
Here is what is possible on a failure to get back above 38.2% back to the 2022 low at 5153.50 and what to look for if it does.
You can use 5153.50 as the swing point for the day and longer term.
This is now 23.6% back to the ATH as well as a major Gann square. Not getting back above this level and taking out 4850.00 can send this market a lot lower. The first target is 61.8% back to the 2022 low at 4515.00, this is also a major Gann square. The longer term target area is 4075.00 to 4036.75, this is 38.2% back to the 2009 low, 78.6% back to the 2022 low and a major Gann square.
Holding 4850.00 and then closing back above 5153.50 would be a very positive sign and a new ATH could eventually follow. As always the first real test will be 38.2% back at 5340.00, a failure to get above here keeps the short term trend negative and a new low can quickly follow. The longer term targets are 61.8% at 5652.00 and then the area of the 5850.25 major Gann square, 78.6% back to the ATH at 5877.00 and the 200 day average at 5896.00.
Monday's low held 23.6% (4850.00) back to the 2009 low and the rally so far has taken out 38.2% back to the ATH at 5340.00. As wild as the trade has been holding 4850.00 can send this market back to a new ATH over time. Right now, by taking out 38.2% at 5340.00 it has turned the short term trend positive and we will now watch 38.2% back to Monday's low at 5265.00, you can use this as the swing point for the week.
The short term target is 61.8% of the same move at 5652.00. The longer term target area is the 5850.50 major Gann square and 78.6% of the same move at 5880.00.
Below 5265.00 the short term target is 78.6% back to the 4/7/25 low at 4980.00. Failing to hold 4850.00 can send this market a lot lower. The first target is 61.8% back to the 2022 low at 4515.00, this is also a major Gann square. The longer term target area is 4075.00 to 4036.75, this is 38.2% back to the 2009 low, 78.6% back to the 2022 low and a major Gann square.
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4/27/25
The rally after holding 23.6% (4850.00) back to the 2022 low is now just short of the 5566.00 major Gann square and this will be the key level for next week. The long term target remains at a new ATH. It has now made a higher low and higher high with this week's range and that adds to the positive view.
Use 5566.00 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, we already mentioned what the long term target is. The next major area of resistance will be between the 5850.25 major Gann square and 78.6% back to the ATH at 5880.00. The short term target is 61.8% back to the same high at 5652.00.
Below it, the short term target is 5283.75, this is a major Gann square and 38.2% back to the 4/7/25 low. Holding this level keeps the short term trend positive. The longer term target is 78.6% of the same move at 4985.00. Any setback that holds the previous major Gann square at 5426.00 keeps the trend extremely positive and a new high can quickly follow.
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We have done 46 videos on how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. These Videos are worth watching even if it is not in the market you are trading, as the ONE44 rules and guidelines are the same for every market. You will also see why we believe the Fibonacci retracements are the underlying structure of ALL markets.
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Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares.
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