Nvidia stock surges 4.47% in pre-market as U.S. clears H20 AI chip sales to China—AMD up 3.18% too as AI trade door reopens
Nvidia is back in action with its China sales — and the market is cheering. The chip giant has received a green light from the U.S. government to resume exports of its advanced H20 AI chips to China, according to multiple sources including Reuters , and the Financial Times . The announcement triggered a strong market response, with Nvidia's stock price jumping $7.33 (4.47%) in pre-market trading to $171.40.
AMD also rode the wave, gaining $4.65 (3.18%) to hit $150.89 pre-market. The news, which signals a potential easing in U.S.–China chip tensions, is drawing serious attention from investors, analysts, and AI industry leaders.
TSMC and SMCI also ticked up; TSMC ahead of Q2 earnings, and SMCI thanks to its Nvidia server partnerships. Nvidia's comeback in China might be just the catalyst it needs to push its stock toward the $200 mark—and here's why the market is reacting so strongly: Pre-market jump: Nvidia stock surged 4.47% to $171.40, gaining $7.33 after the U.S. government confirmed it will grant export licenses for the H20 AI chip to Chinese customers.
Nvidia stock surged 4.47% to $171.40, gaining $7.33 after the U.S. government confirmed it will grant export licenses for the H20 AI chip to Chinese customers. Huge revenue rebound: Nvidia had taken a $4.5 billion inventory charge in Q2 after being blocked from selling the H20 in China. Resuming shipments could restore a big portion of those lost sales.
Nvidia had taken a $4.5 billion inventory charge in Q2 after being blocked from selling the H20 in China. Resuming shipments could restore a big portion of those lost sales. China's tech giants buying fast: Firms like ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba are already lining up with orders on Nvidia's whitelist.
Firms like ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba are already lining up with orders on Nvidia's whitelist. New RTX Pro GPU release: Alongside the H20 comeback, Nvidia launched a new RTX Pro chip, built on the Blackwell architecture, specifically to meet U.S. export rules for industrial use.
Alongside the H20 comeback, Nvidia launched a new RTX Pro chip, built on the Blackwell architecture, specifically to meet U.S. export rules for industrial use. Broader chip market rally: AMD stock rose 3.18% to $150.89 in pre-market trading, while TSMC and Super Micro Computer also saw gains as investor confidence returned to the AI chip trade.
in pre-market trading, while TSMC and Super Micro Computer also saw gains as investor confidence returned to the AI chip trade. Big picture outlook: With geopolitical risk still looming but signs of a thaw in U.S.–China chip relations, Nvidia's reopening of its China pipeline could drive stronger Q3 sales and give bulls a reason to eye $200 as the next target.
This export resumption could mark a major financial turnaround for Nvidia. Earlier this year, the company had to write off $4.5 billion in inventory after the U.S. placed tight restrictions on the sale of high-end AI chips to China. The H20, originally designed to comply with previous export rules, had been held back after additional guidance tightened the rules in late 2024.
Now, the Trump administration has reportedly assured Nvidia that it will grant the required licenses to export the H20 chip. Nvidia is currently filing the paperwork, and shipments could begin in the coming weeks.
If shipments resume smoothly, Nvidia could recover a significant portion of the $4.5 billion in lost sales, much of which was tied to demand from Chinese tech firms like ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba, who are already lining up orders, according to Reuters .
The reaction in China has been immediate. Major tech companies are scrambling to get on Nvidia's so-called 'whitelist'—a vetted list of approved buyers eligible for H20 shipments. According to The Economic Times and ABC News , Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang is currently in Beijing, reportedly meeting with tech influencers and business leaders to fast-track the process. Chinese firms see the H20 chip as critical for powering AI workloads, including natural language processing, image recognition, and large-scale data modeling. With China's domestic chip alternatives still struggling to catch up, Nvidia remains the top-tier provider, even under restricted sales conditions.
Meanwhile, Nvidia isn't just betting on the H20. It's also introducing a new "RTX Pro" GPU, designed specifically for export-compliant AI tasks in China. Built on its Blackwell architecture, the RTX Pro will target industrial use cases like smart factories and automated logistics, as confirmed by Tech Xplore and El País . The broader AI chip ecosystem is already reacting. Nvidia's export approval appears to be a rising tide that's lifting multiple boats. AMD, a key competitor in the AI GPU space, saw its shares rise over 3% in pre-market trading.
Other beneficiaries include:
Broadcom
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC)
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) TSMC, in particular, is gaining attention ahead of its Q2 earnings report, while SMCI is benefiting from its ongoing Nvidia server partnerships.
According to MarketWatch , the export license news is also boosting investor sentiment across the tech and semiconductor sectors, especially as it points to renewed demand from the world's second-largest economy. Short-Term Projection (Q3 2025): Nvidia's current pre-market price of $171.40—up 4.47%—reflects strong investor optimism following the H20 export greenlight. If shipment licenses are approved within July as expected, analysts foresee Nvidia retesting its previous record highs around $174–$177, possibly even pushing toward the $180 mark before Q3 ends. The chipmaker could also benefit from an influx of backlogged orders from Chinese giants like ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent. If early deliveries begin by August, Nvidia may exceed revenue estimates in its next earnings report, pushing the stock further.
Short-Term Risk Factors: Any delay in license approvals
U.S.–China tensions re-escalating
Shipment volume caps or added compliance checks Long-Term Projection (2025–2026): Over the next 6 to 12 months, Nvidia's stock has the potential to cross $200, especially if: H20 and RTX Pro sales scale in China
Global AI demand continues rising
New GPU lines under the Blackwell architecture drive growth Several Wall Street firms, including those cited by Reuters and Financial Times , already project Nvidia's FY2025 and FY2026 revenues to grow 20–30% year-over-year, assuming China remains a viable market. The company's $4 trillion market cap could stretch even higher if export channels remain open. In the broader picture, Nvidia is positioned as the backbone of global AI infrastructure, and with supply chains stabilizing and geopolitical doors slightly ajar, its long-term trajectory looks increasingly bullish. While today's headlines are bullish, there are several uncertainties investors will want to monitor: Watchpoint Key Details License Timelines How fast the U.S. Commerce Department processes Nvidia's applications. Shipment Caps Whether the U.S. imposes any volume limits or tighter oversight on exports. Demand Surge With pent-up demand in China, Q3 orders could surge, affecting pricing and supply chain. Geopolitical Risks Any new tensions between the U.S. and China could put future shipments at risk. This development might also play a role in 2025's broader chip investment strategies, especially with growing global competition from firms in South Korea, Japan, and the EU. The decision to allow H20 shipments isn't just a win for Nvidia — it could reshape the entire AI chip supply chain in 2025 and beyond. For now, Nvidia appears poised to regain its footing in China, a crucial market it can't afford to lose.
As Business Insider and the Wall Street Journal noted, this moment may signal a strategic thaw in U.S.–China AI cooperation, even if only temporary. At the same time, it shows how critical Nvidia's hardware has become to the global AI race. From a revenue standpoint, recovering even half of the blocked $4.5 billion would significantly boost Nvidia's FY2025 performance. Investors will also be watching for how RTX Pro sales unfold in China's industrial automation sector — another emerging growth area. If all goes as planned, Nvidia's next earnings report could show a marked improvement in both top-line revenue and investor confidence, restoring momentum that had been dampened by geopolitical roadblocks. Q1: Why is Nvidia stock up in pre-market trading? Nvidia shares rose after the U.S. cleared H20 AI chip sales to China.
Q2: How did AMD stock react to Nvidia's China update? AMD stock gained 3.18% pre-market due to improved AI chip trade outlook.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Time of India
39 minutes ago
- Time of India
Rare earth supply risk: Indian electronics firms worried as Chinese curbs may hit; but can Beijing also afford this?
This is an AI-generated image, used for representational purposes only. A number of applicants under India's Electronics Component Manufacturing Scheme (ECMS) have flagged concerns over meeting their first-year production targets due to ongoing shortages of rare earth minerals. According to ET, at least 10 companies have raised the issue with the ministry of electronics and information technology (MeitY), warning that if the shortage continues for another six months, they may not be able to meet the incentive-linked thresholds. The rare earth scarcity stems from export restrictions imposed by China, which controls more than 90% of global rare earth processing. China introduced special licensing requirements for seven rare earth elements and associated magnets from April 4 this year, leading to supply disruptions across key industries. These include electronics, automobiles, and clean energy technologies. "Companies have expressed concern, but within the sector, it isn't an alarming outcry," an official aware of the matter was quoted as saying by ET. 'If there is a component that uses rare earth, instead of importing that rare earth and making that component in India, they will simply import that component.' While firms are exploring alternatives, such as sourcing from different suppliers or shifting to rare-earth-free technologies, the timing has been challenging, particularly for those scaling up manufacturing for exports. 'The ECMS has been unveiled at a time when many entities want to scale up and take advantage of exports,' said Ashok Chandak, president of the India Electronics and Semiconductor Association (IESA), as quoted by ET. He added that supply shocks in rare earth magnets have hit the sector hard. The Rs 22,919 crore ECMS, launched in May, seeks to build a robust domestic ecosystem for electronic components like multi-layer PCBs, lithium-ion cells, resistors, capacitors, display and camera modules. PCBs have attracted particular attention from applicants, according to KS Babu, secretary of the Indian Printed Circuit Association (IPCA), who noted that the scheme addresses both multi-layer and high-density interconnect boards. However, he also pointed out that local production of key inputs like copper-clad laminates is still missing. 'Chinese suppliers are now taking advantage by squeezing prices, citing problems with shipments,' Babu said, as per ET. The scheme, effective from FY26 through FY32, includes a one-year gestation period. However, manufacturers, particularly MSMEs, have sought quicker access to incentives to recover their investments. A Delhi-based PCB maker was cited by ET saying that the government has informally assured leniency during the verification and claims process. Responding to industry requests, MeitY will extend the ECMS application window beyond July 31, as confirmed by officials. Many small firms are still finalising their sourcing channels, joint ventures, and tech partnerships. In a written reply to the Rajya Sabha, minister of state for commerce and industry Jitin Prasada noted that the export restrictions on rare earth magnets have led to supply chain bottlenecks for auto and electronics sectors. However, the ministry has not received specific reports of cost escalation or project delays from industry hubs in Maharashtra, as per news agency PTI. Despite the disruption, industry leaders remain hopeful. 'China also can't afford to continue an export ban for long, since their companies will begin bleeding and it will place a long term strain on their relations with many countries,' Chandak said, as per ET. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Time of India
43 minutes ago
- Time of India
Maintaining sustained growth top priority, says FM Sitharaman
New Delhi: Maintaining sustained growth is the top priority amid global uncertainties, and an incremental rise in public capital expenditure is one of the drivers for economic development, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Saturday. The statement assumes significance as the Indian economy grew by 6.5 per cent in FY25. This growth was the slowest in four years, and compares to a 9.2 per cent expansion in the previous 2023-24 fiscal. The Economic Survey has projected the GDP growth for FY26 between 6.3 per cent and 6.8 per cent, while the RBI lowered its growth forecast from an earlier level of 6.7 per cent to 6.5 per cent for the ongoing financial year. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Only Classless Women Wear these Over a Certain Age Learn More Undo Speaking at a book release event here, Sitharaman said, "To maintain the growth is the topmost priority. Growth is the topmost, and therefore, it will have an overlap with how you create jobs..." Keeping India relevant amid global challenges and being there in a leadership position, and moving forward along with other countries are other priority areas, she said, adding that the priority would also be to redefine the voice of the Global South. Live Events Finding resources for meeting many domestic economic aspirations within fiscal constraints is another priority, she said while releasing the book titled 'A World in Flux: India's Economic Priorities'. She further said the incremental rise in public capital expenditure is one of the primary drivers of sustained economic growth. "Public investments have kept pace. It has been Prime Minister Narendra Modi's clear instruction that we have to have capital expenditure grow and grow significantly. I confidently believe that it is one of the primary drivers of sustained economic growth," she said. The other focus area of the government is to push growth through a friendly and attractive FDI policy to be able to get more and more investments happening in India. Besides, she said, the healthy competition among states to attract investment is also a good sign. Speaking about bilateral trade deals, the finance minister said such agreements are taking priority over multilateral trade. "On the bilateral trade front, we are moving forward and we have seen bilateral agreements being signed in the last four to five years with Australia, UAE and the UK. Negotiations are progressing well with the United States as well as the European Union," she said. Asked about relations with China, Sitharaman said it is getting a bit better, and the beginning has been made with the visit of the External Affairs Minister recently. "We need more access, and we need to have a lot more interaction, and possibly open some windows. And that's not just from our side, even the Chinese have been approaching through the MEA. "So, you had External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar go. There is something, some kind of a beginning, as to how much it will take us far; how far it will go is something we will have to wait and see. It might help the economy; however, a sense of caution would have to be built in," she added.
&w=3840&q=100)
First Post
an hour ago
- First Post
China's Premier Li Qiang says AI progress needs regulation, not just speed, calls for global cooperation
China's Premier Li Qiang called for urgent global consensus on artificial intelligence safety and governance, announcing a new international cooperation body. read more Chinese Premier Li Qiang is seen on a screen as he speaks at the opening ceremony of the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai. AFP China's Premier Li Qiang warned on Saturday that the growth of artificial intelligence must be balanced against security risks, stating that global agreement was urgently required even as the technology race between Beijing and Washington showed no signs of slowing down. His comments come just days after US President Donald Trump launched an ambitious low-regulation policy aimed at solidifying the country's dominance in the rapidly evolving area, vowing to 'remove red tape and onerous regulation' that may stymie private sector AI development. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Opening the World AI Conference (WAIC) in Shanghai on Saturday, Li emphasised the importance of governance and open-source development, announcing the formation of a Chinese-led body for international AI cooperation. 'The risks and challenges brought by artificial intelligence have drawn widespread attention… How to find a balance between development and security urgently requires further consensus from the entire society,' the premier said. He gave no further details about the newly announced organisation, though state media later reported 'the preliminary consideration' was that it would be headquartered in Shanghai. The organisation would 'promote global governance featuring extensive consultation, joint contribution and shared benefits', state news agency Xinhua reported, without elaborating on its set-up or mechanisms. At a time when AI is being integrated across virtually all industries, its uses have raised major questions, including about the spread of misinformation, its impact on employment and the potential loss of technological control. In a speech at WAIC on Saturday, Nobel Prize-winning physicist Geoffrey Hinton compared the situation to keeping 'a very cute tiger cub as a pet'. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD To survive, he said, you need to ensure you can train it not to kill you when it grows up. Pledge to share AI advances The enormous strides AI technology has made in recent years have seen it move to the forefront of the US-China rivalry. Premier Li said China would 'actively promote' the development of open-source AI, adding Beijing was willing to share advances with other countries, particularly developing ones. 'If we engage in technological monopolies, controls and blockage, artificial intelligence will become the preserve of a few countries and a few enterprises,' he said. Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu warned against 'unilateralism and protectionism' at a later meeting. Washington has expanded its efforts in recent years to curb exports of state-of-the-art chips to China, concerned that they can be used to advance Beijing's military systems and erode US tech dominance. Li, in his speech, highlighted 'insufficient supply of computing power and chips' as a bottleneck to AI progress. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD China has made AI a pillar of its plans for technological self-reliance, with the government pledging a raft of measures to boost the sector. In January, Chinese startup DeepSeek unveiled an AI model that performed as well as top US systems despite using less powerful chips. 'Defining test' In a video message played at the WAIC opening ceremony, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said AI governance would be 'a defining test of international cooperation'. The ceremony saw the French president's AI envoy, Anne Bouverot, underscore 'an urgent need' for global action and for the United Nations to play a 'leading role'. Bouverot called for a framework 'that is open, transparent and effective, giving each and everyone an opportunity to have their views taken into account'. Li's speech 'posed a clear contrast to the Trump administration's 'America First' view on AI' and the US measures announced this week, said WAIC attendee George Chen, a partner at Washington-based policy consultancy The Asia Group. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD 'The world is now clearly divided into at least three camps: the United States and its allies, China (and perhaps many Belt and Road or Global South countries), and the EU – which prefers regulating AI through legislation, like the EU AI Act,' Chen told AFP. At an AI summit in Paris in February, 58 countries including China, France and India – as well as the European Union and African Union Commission – called for enhanced coordination on AI governance. But the United States warned against 'excessive regulation', and alongside the United Kingdom, refused to sign the summit's appeal for an 'open', 'inclusive' and 'ethical' AI.
