Predicting ceiling, floor for Michigan State football in 2025
This time of year we will come across numerous media outlets publishing the best and worst case scenarios for teams across the country, and we are no different here at Spartans Wire. So what are the best and worst possible scenarios for the Spartans in 2025? I think it could range from landing in the College Football Playoff to head coach Jonathan Smith entering the offseason on the hot seat.
With that being said, let's take a look at my ceiling, floor and predicted records for the Spartans in 2025 below:
Ceiling
Record: 10-2
The best case scenario for the Spartans in 2025 would be similar to 2021 where essentially everything falls into place. That would require an offensive player becoming a star on the national level -- my guess would be quarterback Aidan Chiles -- and the Spartans experience some fortunate injury luck along the way. Combine those two things with wins in nearly all of their toss-up games and/or a notable upset, and that adds up to the ceiling scenario for the Spartans. As I said, it would essentially mirror what we saw in 2021 with Kenneth Walker III and the Spartans reaching the Peach Bowl.
A 10-2 finish for the Spartans would almost certainly result in a berth in the College Football Playoff. This type of turnaround would be comparable to what we saw from Indiana last season -- which was equally unexpected as the Spartans doing so this fall.
Floor
Record: 4-8
If Michigan State gets off to a rough start and drops an early pivotal game against Boston College, then this floor may be actually lower. But I feel pretty confident Michigan State is going to handle their non-conference schedule which means the floor for the Spartans would consist of a 3-0 non-conference slate and 1-8 mark in league play.
How do we get to the floor? Well, if the key players added via the portal are busts, Chiles' doesn't take that next step and the Spartans have some more bad injury lucky this fall, then finishing 4-8 is certainly possible. The schedule this fall doesn't possess as many top tier teams as last year, but the number of toss-up matchups could result in the same number of losses should they come up short in each of those predicted close games. Those are the three ingredients that will lead to the Spartans hitting their floor and ultimately putting Smith on the hot seat heading into next year.
Prediction
Record: 7-5
If we split the difference between the ceiling and floor then we simply land at 7-5, and that's where I'd predict Michigan State to finish at this point in the offseason. There are a lot of unknowns about Michigan State heading into this next season, but there are also a lot of things that give me confidence to anticipate a year of growth under Smith and his staff. I'm not sure yet how the games will all play out and which games I'm ready to predict the Spartans to win, but I think they reach seven this fall and get back to a bowl game for the first time since 2021.
Contact/Follow us @The SpartansWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Michigan State news, notes and opinion. You can also follow Robert Bondy on X @RobertBondy5.
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