Taiwan faces a precarious future—whether or not US and China continue on path to conflict
That expression has never been more apt than today with the US and China – which considers Taiwan to be part of its territory – locked in a standoff over the future of the island.
At an event I attended some years ago, a Chinese scholar remarked when the issue of the US-China rivalry came up that they believed there was an African saying: 'When two elephants are either having a fight, or making love, the grass around them gets trampled.'
It was best for everyone, they advised the other attendees, for the two superpowers to have a workmanlike, unexciting relationship rather than take the risk of things getting too friendly or hostile. But whether or not the current period of conflict continues or the US and China magically become more aligned, the challenges facing Taiwan are severe.
First off, Taiwan is itself in a period of domestic turbulence.
The government of Taiwanese president William Lai Ching-te, leader of the Democratic Progressive party, was elected in January 2024 with a little over 40% of the vote. This was considerably less than his predecessor from the same party, Tsai Ing-wen. One of the main opposition leaders, Ke Wen-je of the Taiwan People's party, has since then been arrested on corruption charges. He is accused of accepting half a million US dollars in bribes during his term as mayor of Taipei as well as misreporting campaign finances during his presidential run.
Most recently, in late July, recall votes were held where citizens in 24 districts of Taiwan chose whether or not to remove their legislator from office. This is the result of a law in Taiwan stipulating a new vote if 10% of the electorate in a specific constituency express dissatisfaction at the previous outcome. Activists supporting the government mobilised to achieve this.
The votes seem to be associated with frustration that, while the Democratic Progressive party controls the presidency, it cannot get legislation through a parliament dominated by its opponents. All of the votes were directed at seats held by the Kuomintang, the main opposition party in recent years that is accused by its critics of being pro-China. Not a single seat was overturned.
When the steady nationalism of Xi Jinping's leadership in Beijing is factored in, with its conviction that the global influence of the west is slowly declining and the east – dominated by China – is in the nascent, one can see why the issue of Taiwan might look more precarious and worrying.
This is regardless of the various predictions that 2027 is the date that China has set to go for reunification.
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