Good news: Latest data shows you might get a bigger tax refund this year

Independent

05-03-2025

The average tax return in 2025 is up $240 through the week ending February 21, meaning many Americans are getting more money back this year than they might've assumed.
More than 42 million returns have already been processed, with the average return coming back around $3,453, according to an analysis by MLive.
That's a 7.5 percent increase compared to the same period last year, according to the report. The average direct deposit return is $3,505, which represents an increase of 7.1 percent over 2024.
The news comes as a welcome update to a previous prediction that returns would be down this year. According to the analysis, those early reports did not include taxpayers who claimed the Earned Income Tax Credit or the Additional Child Tax Credit.
A federal law prohibits Americans claiming those credits from being issued their returns until the middle of February.
Now that those returns have been included in the IRS's data, the return amount has increased significantly.
According to the analysis, the IRS has issued $102.2 billion in tax returns thus far.
One number related to tax returns is down from 2024: the number of individuals who have already filed. So far this year, the IRS has received approximately 42.7 million returns, which is down 4.2 percent from this time last year.
Despite that, the total number of returns issued thus far — 29.6 million — is up versus this time last year by 2.3 percent.
The data comes at a time when government workers — including IRS workers — are wondering how long they'll have their jobs. The Department of Government Efficiency, under Elon Musk, has been gutting federal agencies and laying off thousands of federal workers. The IRS has not escaped its gaze; as many as 7,000 workers at the agency have been identified as potential targets of layoffs, according to The New York Times.
'There is no possible way there won't be a reduction in service, given the I.R.S. has been trying to hire employees and they haven't even filled all of their openings,' Tom O'Saben, director of tax content and government relations at the National Association of Tax Professionals, told The New York Times.
That said, tax experts have advised Americans to follow the same advice they give every year: the earlier you file, the better.
Thus far there have been no delays reported. Returns that are filed digitally and request direct deposits are typically processed faster than others.