Real Estate Broker Says $600K Homes Will Hit $1 Million — 'I Hate To Burst Your Bubble, But There Is No Bubble And There Never Will Be'

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3 days ago

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If you're still waiting for a housing crash, one real estate broker on Reddit thinks you're wasting your time — and possibly your shot at owning a home.
In a post that sparked hundreds of replies, the broker wrote, "That $600,000 home that you're worried to buy at a 7% — will be over $1 million eventually." His reasoning? Real estate is "inflationary," and people banking on a crash are "CLUELESS."
He said he started working in real estate before the 2008 market crash — which he called "a big joke," arguing that while prices dipped around 20%, they quickly rebounded and climbed more than 100% in the years that followed.
"I hate to burst your bubble," he added, "but there is no 'bubble' — and there never will be."
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He added, "I just hate to see people getting stuck renting and then can never break the cycle because they waited too long."
The comment was part housing pep talk, part doom scroll for renters, and part economic philosophy. His big argument? Real estate isn't like the stock market. You're not betting on volatility or vibes. You're buying physical stuff — lumber, labor, land — all of which, he says, will only get more expensive over time.
So, is he right?
Well, kind of. But also... not exactly.
Yes, real estate does tend to move with inflation. It's one of the reasons investors flock to property when the dollar weakens — tangible assets often hold their value. And yes, the cost of building materials has gone up over the past few years. Lumber prices, for example, nearly tripled during the pandemic. Throw in rising labor costs and housing shortages, and sure — it's no stretch to believe that today's $600,000 home might creep up to $1 million eventually.
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Recent data supports the idea that home prices have consistently outpaced inflation in many markets. U.S. home prices have risen nearly 60% since 2019, with the median sale price hitting $447,435 in mid-2025. Even at a moderate annual growth rate of 6%, a $600,000 home would reach $1 million in about 10 years. In some regions, it could be even faster — Miami, for instance, saw a 42% increase in $600,000 to $1 million home sales within a single year. At a national level, average home prices have climbed to over $503,000, and long-term trends show that housing typically appreciates by 6–7% per year.
But here's the thing: context matters.
Many commenters were quick to push back. "It's not just about materials," one user wrote. "Look at a house in California versus Mississippi. Do you think materials cost 5x more in California?" Others pointed to factors like zoning laws, taxes, neighborhood demand, and property insurance, especially in disaster-prone states like Florida.
One user, a paralegal, chimed in: "The OP's post oversimplifies a lot of factors that go into homeownership. It's not just about the cost of materials to build a house."
Another commenter reminded readers that while housing prices tend to rise over time, local markets do correct — and sometimes hard. They shared that their home in the San Francisco Bay Area, which sold for $400,000 in 2006, dropped to $137,000 by 2009. It only just recently returned to its original price. So yes, prices go up — but sometimes it takes decades to recover.
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There's also the affordability issue. Even if prices keep climbing, people still have to be able to pay. And right now, many simply can't. According to Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies, housing affordability has reached its worst level in more than three decades. The price-to-income ratio has soared to 5.0 — well above the traditional 3.0 threshold — making it harder than ever for the average household to buy. The average age of a first-time homebuyer is now approaching 40.
So what's the takeaway?
The broker's not entirely wrong — housing does track with inflation over time, and if you plan to live in your home for decades, you'll probably come out ahead. But the idea that "there's no bubble and never will be" ignores just how many Americans are already priced out — and how fast affordability is deteriorating.
Yes, real estate is inflationary. But oversimplifying the market? That's not helpful — or realistic — for the millions of people stuck deciding between overpriced rent and an unaffordable mortgage.
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