Unprecedented Iran-Israel war leaves regime in most fragile state since 1979

Al Arabiya

11 hours ago

The direct war between Iran and Israel has now reached an intensity and level of escalation never seen in the history of the Islamic Republic. What was once limited to proxy warfare, cyber-attacks, and covert assassinations has now evolved into a full-scale aerial war between two regional powers – one that threatens not only the stability of the Iranian government but also the broader balance of power in the Middle East. The ferocity, precision, and sustained nature of Israeli strikes mark a dramatic departure from past confrontations, and the Iranian government now finds itself in the most precarious and dangerous position since the 1979 revolution – arguably even more fragile than during the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s.
The reason this moment is more dangerous than the eight-year war with Iraq is simple but critical: This is not a ground war. It is an aerial war, and Iran's military doctrine and strategic strength have always rested on the assumption that the next war would be fought on land or through proxy groups. Iran has invested heavily in its ground forces and in regional militias such as Hezbollah, the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen. However, the current confrontation with Israel has bypassed these tools of asymmetric warfare. The battle is being waged from the skies – via drones, advanced fighter jets, and precision missile strikes – and in this arena, Israel holds overwhelming superiority.
For years, Israeli military planners have prepared for this type of confrontation. Israel has invested in the most advanced American aircraft, including the F-35 stealth fighter jet, and has developed its own highly capable drone and missile programs. Moreover, its intelligence capabilities – driven by agencies such as Mossad and Unit 8200 – have allowed it to identify and eliminate high-value Iranian targets with extraordinary accuracy. In contrast, Iran's air defenses and air force are outdated and stretched thin across a vast and vulnerable geography. This disparity has created an overwhelming asymmetry in favor of Israel.
The stakes for the Iranian government could not be higher. As the war continues, the Islamic Republic's ability to retaliate effectively diminishes by the day. While Iran has launched a series of ballistic missiles into Israel and neighboring regions, most have targeted symbolic or civilian infrastructure, with relatively limited military or strategic impact. Israeli officials have confirmed casualties and damage, but by and large, the missile barrages have failed to significantly alter the course of the war. In contrast, Israel has systematically dismantled key components of Iran's military and nuclear infrastructure in just a matter of days.
One of Iran's main sources of military power – its ballistic missile arsenal – is rapidly being depleted. Prior to the war, Iran was believed to possess around 3,000 ballistic missiles of various ranges and capabilities. However, Israeli strikes have reportedly destroyed large quantities of these missiles, along with many of the underground bunkers and launch pads used to store and fire them. Several international intelligence sources now estimate that Iran may have already lost hundreds of its most advanced missiles, and if the current rate of attrition continues, it is only a matter of time before the government's stockpile is reduced to critical levels.
This depletion is not just a military issue – it is existential. Iran's missile arsenal has long been seen as a deterrent against foreign invasion and a symbol of national strength. Without it, the Iranian government loses both strategic leverage and internal confidence. Compounding the problem is the fact that Iran lacks the capacity to replenish its arsenal quickly, especially under the pressure of ongoing airstrikes, international sanctions, and a weakening economy. The longer the conflict drags on, the more Iran's military capabilities will wither, and the harder it will become to project power or defend the homeland.
Meanwhile, Israel is conducting daily operations against high-value military and nuclear targets across Iran. These are not symbolic strikes; they are aimed at the very core of the government's power. Key facilities in Isfahan, Natanz, Fordow, and Parchin have reportedly been hit. Senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including high-ranking officers from its Aerospace and Quds Forces, have been killed in targeted bombings. Even nuclear scientists, long guarded by layers of security, have not been spared. The destruction of these assets has not only crippled Iran's nuclear program but has also sent a chilling message to the leadership in Tehran: no part of the government is safe.
This raises a profound question: How long can the Islamic Republic survive this kind of sustained military pressure? Unlike during the Iran-Iraq War, when the population largely rallied behind the government against a foreign aggressor, today's Iranian society is far more fragmented, disillusioned, and volatile. The memory of the 2022 and 2023 nationwide protests – sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini and fueled by demands for freedom and justice – still lingers. The government suppressed those uprisings with brute force, but the underlying grievances have only deepened. Widespread economic hardship, political repression, and a general loss of faith in the system have created a powder keg within the country. A prolonged war could be the spark that reignites mass demonstrations, defections from the security forces, or even a full-blown uprising.
Indeed, it would not be surprising if the government, recognizing this internal vulnerability, begins to seek a ceasefire or de-escalation. Iranian officials may attempt to open backchannel communications through regional mediators or international organizations. But the critical question is whether Israel, now holding the upper hand militarily and diplomatically, will agree to pause its operations. From the Israeli perspective, this may be a once-in-a-generation opportunity to fundamentally degrade Iran's military capacity and prevent it from ever becoming a nuclear-armed state. If Jerusalem believes it can achieve that objective now, with limited long-term risk, it may choose to continue its campaign rather than agree to a ceasefire that would allow Iran to regroup.
The next few days are therefore critical. If Iran cannot stem the bleeding – militarily, economically, and politically – it may find itself facing a collapse not seen since the fall of the Shah. The Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is now 86 years old. Questions about succession, factional infighting, and the loyalty of the IRGC will only grow louder as the situation deteriorates. At the same time, Israel will weigh the cost of continued conflict against the opportunity to reshape the regional balance in its favor for years to come.
In conclusion, the Islamic Republic of Iran is facing its worst and most dangerous moment since 1979. Unlike previous crises, this one is not rooted in political isolation, economic sanctions, or internal protests alone – it is a direct military conflict that is rapidly eroding the government's foundations. Its ground forces are irrelevant in an air war. Its missile arsenal is dwindling. Its nuclear ambitions are under attack. And its people are watching closely, waiting for either collapse or capitulation. As this unprecedented war unfolds, the fate of Iran's government may well be decided not in months or years – but in days.