Latest news with #aerialwar
ABC News
13 hours ago
- Politics
- ABC News
What video can tell us about Iran and Israel's military strategies
Analysis of video and images showing Israeli and Iranian strikes on each other's territory reveals two very different strategies being employed in the conflict. ABC NEWS Verify has looked at the vision and images of missile and drone strikes across Iran and Israel, assessing the type of munitions used and what it could mean for the length of the armed engagement. They reveal Iran's strategy appears to be one of overwhelming Israeli defence capabilities, in the hope its ground-launched missiles will breach the country's missile defence systems. Israel, meanwhile, has employed a strategy using more targeted strikes, launched from fighter jets or drones, to hit infrastructure and personnel. Expert in war studies in the Middle East for Deakin University, associate professor Ahmed Hashim, said the conflict so far has been solely aerial — fighter jets, drones and missiles launched from silos or the backs of trucks. "[This is] an aerial war between the most advanced air force in the region and the most advanced ballistic missile capability in the Middle East," he said. Video shot in Beirut, Lebanon, shows some of the ballistic missiles Iran has launched from its territory, but Dr Hashim said it would be a fraction of the country's stockpile. "[They have] the most extensive range of ballistic missiles, no other country in the Middle East and very few other countries in the region have that," he said. When the missiles get through Israel's missile defence systems, as they did in the city of Haifa, Dr Hashim said he believed hypersonic missiles such as Iran's Fattah-1 were being used. "It is an extensive capability that has given them considerable power, but Israel still has an air force second to none." Anti-missile systems such as Iron Dome, David's Sling, and Arrow have a reported 90 per cent success rate, but Dr Hashim said Iran's retaliatory strategy has been to overwhelm the defences. "They're using a mixture of hypersonics and solid- and liquid-fuel ballistic missiles, and basically what they're trying to do is to create a concept of operations to deceive the Israeli defensive systems." Dr Hashim also disputed Iron Dome's claimed success rate. "We also have to be a little bit wary of both sides making bombastic claims, and you know these are quite often for propaganda," he said, noting that Iran also makes unverifiable claims about its missiles. In Iran, video shows smoke rising from a city. Dr Hashim said it was evidence of strikes launched from fighter jets, rather than missiles launched from sites within Israel. Israel uses a modified version of the F-35 fighter jet, the F-35I, Dr Hashim told ABC NEWS Verify. Missiles launched from an F-35I can hit a target many kilometres away from the aircraft's airborne position, he said. This image of Haifa's oil refinery, taken on June 16, shows a large damage zone. Dr Hashim said ballistic missiles tend to be used on larger targets like power plants and oil refineries that don't require precision. This image, taken in Tehran, which first appeared online on June 13, shows a small puncture in the side of a building near Nobonyad Square, a likely missile attack, he said. Separately, an Israeli security source told Reuters that Israel's intelligence agency, Mossad, had deployed weapons from within Iran, including drones and precision-guided weapons systems. Grainy footage released by the agency showed two camouflaged figures crouched in desert terrain. The video could not be independently verified. Dr Hashim told ABC NEWS Verify that Iran had let its air force age in recent years. "Iran's Air Force is largely an antique museum piece. Because it's largely 40-45 years old," he said. "Iran was hoping to revitalise its air force when sanctions were off. "But basically, they've put their eggs in the basket of ballistic missiles. And they've developed a whole generation of ballistic missiles, including the hypersonic Fatah 1 and Fatah 2." Israel, Dr Hashim said, is looking for total regime change, and for that, they'll need time. The key site inside Iran in the coming days will be the Fordow nuclear facility, according to Dr Hashim. Fordow is an underground uranium-enrichment facility about 30km north-east of the city of Qom. "If you destroy Fordow, you're actually hitting a major element of the legitimacy of the regime," Dr Hashim said Satellite imagery makes it clear that Israel has already done significant damage to Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure. Dr Hashim told ABC NEWS Verify that Israel was trying to wear Iran down. "This is a war of attrition," he said. "It could go from, 'OK, we'll degrade its capabilities for as long as possible that the regime falls,' or enough chaos happens, or they essentially surrender."
Al Arabiya
16 hours ago
- Politics
- Al Arabiya
Unprecedented Iran-Israel war leaves regime in most fragile state since 1979
The direct war between Iran and Israel has now reached an intensity and level of escalation never seen in the history of the Islamic Republic. What was once limited to proxy warfare, cyber-attacks, and covert assassinations has now evolved into a full-scale aerial war between two regional powers – one that threatens not only the stability of the Iranian government but also the broader balance of power in the Middle East. The ferocity, precision, and sustained nature of Israeli strikes mark a dramatic departure from past confrontations, and the Iranian government now finds itself in the most precarious and dangerous position since the 1979 revolution – arguably even more fragile than during the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s. The reason this moment is more dangerous than the eight-year war with Iraq is simple but critical: This is not a ground war. It is an aerial war, and Iran's military doctrine and strategic strength have always rested on the assumption that the next war would be fought on land or through proxy groups. Iran has invested heavily in its ground forces and in regional militias such as Hezbollah, the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen. However, the current confrontation with Israel has bypassed these tools of asymmetric warfare. The battle is being waged from the skies – via drones, advanced fighter jets, and precision missile strikes – and in this arena, Israel holds overwhelming superiority. For years, Israeli military planners have prepared for this type of confrontation. Israel has invested in the most advanced American aircraft, including the F-35 stealth fighter jet, and has developed its own highly capable drone and missile programs. Moreover, its intelligence capabilities – driven by agencies such as Mossad and Unit 8200 – have allowed it to identify and eliminate high-value Iranian targets with extraordinary accuracy. In contrast, Iran's air defenses and air force are outdated and stretched thin across a vast and vulnerable geography. This disparity has created an overwhelming asymmetry in favor of Israel. The stakes for the Iranian government could not be higher. As the war continues, the Islamic Republic's ability to retaliate effectively diminishes by the day. While Iran has launched a series of ballistic missiles into Israel and neighboring regions, most have targeted symbolic or civilian infrastructure, with relatively limited military or strategic impact. Israeli officials have confirmed casualties and damage, but by and large, the missile barrages have failed to significantly alter the course of the war. In contrast, Israel has systematically dismantled key components of Iran's military and nuclear infrastructure in just a matter of days. One of Iran's main sources of military power – its ballistic missile arsenal – is rapidly being depleted. Prior to the war, Iran was believed to possess around 3,000 ballistic missiles of various ranges and capabilities. However, Israeli strikes have reportedly destroyed large quantities of these missiles, along with many of the underground bunkers and launch pads used to store and fire them. Several international intelligence sources now estimate that Iran may have already lost hundreds of its most advanced missiles, and if the current rate of attrition continues, it is only a matter of time before the government's stockpile is reduced to critical levels. This depletion is not just a military issue – it is existential. Iran's missile arsenal has long been seen as a deterrent against foreign invasion and a symbol of national strength. Without it, the Iranian government loses both strategic leverage and internal confidence. Compounding the problem is the fact that Iran lacks the capacity to replenish its arsenal quickly, especially under the pressure of ongoing airstrikes, international sanctions, and a weakening economy. The longer the conflict drags on, the more Iran's military capabilities will wither, and the harder it will become to project power or defend the homeland. Meanwhile, Israel is conducting daily operations against high-value military and nuclear targets across Iran. These are not symbolic strikes; they are aimed at the very core of the government's power. Key facilities in Isfahan, Natanz, Fordow, and Parchin have reportedly been hit. Senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including high-ranking officers from its Aerospace and Quds Forces, have been killed in targeted bombings. Even nuclear scientists, long guarded by layers of security, have not been spared. The destruction of these assets has not only crippled Iran's nuclear program but has also sent a chilling message to the leadership in Tehran: no part of the government is safe. This raises a profound question: How long can the Islamic Republic survive this kind of sustained military pressure? Unlike during the Iran-Iraq War, when the population largely rallied behind the government against a foreign aggressor, today's Iranian society is far more fragmented, disillusioned, and volatile. The memory of the 2022 and 2023 nationwide protests – sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini and fueled by demands for freedom and justice – still lingers. The government suppressed those uprisings with brute force, but the underlying grievances have only deepened. Widespread economic hardship, political repression, and a general loss of faith in the system have created a powder keg within the country. A prolonged war could be the spark that reignites mass demonstrations, defections from the security forces, or even a full-blown uprising. Indeed, it would not be surprising if the government, recognizing this internal vulnerability, begins to seek a ceasefire or de-escalation. Iranian officials may attempt to open backchannel communications through regional mediators or international organizations. But the critical question is whether Israel, now holding the upper hand militarily and diplomatically, will agree to pause its operations. From the Israeli perspective, this may be a once-in-a-generation opportunity to fundamentally degrade Iran's military capacity and prevent it from ever becoming a nuclear-armed state. If Jerusalem believes it can achieve that objective now, with limited long-term risk, it may choose to continue its campaign rather than agree to a ceasefire that would allow Iran to regroup. The next few days are therefore critical. If Iran cannot stem the bleeding – militarily, economically, and politically – it may find itself facing a collapse not seen since the fall of the Shah. The Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is now 86 years old. Questions about succession, factional infighting, and the loyalty of the IRGC will only grow louder as the situation deteriorates. At the same time, Israel will weigh the cost of continued conflict against the opportunity to reshape the regional balance in its favor for years to come. In conclusion, the Islamic Republic of Iran is facing its worst and most dangerous moment since 1979. Unlike previous crises, this one is not rooted in political isolation, economic sanctions, or internal protests alone – it is a direct military conflict that is rapidly eroding the government's foundations. Its ground forces are irrelevant in an air war. Its missile arsenal is dwindling. Its nuclear ambitions are under attack. And its people are watching closely, waiting for either collapse or capitulation. As this unprecedented war unfolds, the fate of Iran's government may well be decided not in months or years – but in days.
RNZ News
3 days ago
- Politics
- RNZ News
Iran urges Trump to make Israel halt war, Netanyahu hails 'path to victory'
By Alexander Cornwell, Parisa Hafezi , Reuters A fire blazes in the oil depots of Shahran, northwest of Tehran, on 15 June 2025. Photo: Atta Kenare / AFP Iran called on US President Donald Trump to force Israel to cease fire as the only way to end the four-day-old aerial war, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says his country was on the "path to victory". Israeli forces stepped up their bombardment of Iranian cities, while Iran proved capable of piercing Israeli air defences with one of its most successful volleys yet of retaliatory missile strikes. "If President Trump is genuine about diplomacy and interested in stopping this war, next steps are consequential," Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on X, Monday (local time). "Israel must halt its aggression, and absent a total cessation of military aggression against us, our responses will continue. It takes one phone call from Washington to muzzle someone like Netanyahu. That may pave the way for a return to diplomacy." Sources told Reuters that Tehran had asked Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman to press Trump to use his influence on Israel to agree to an immediate ceasefire. In return, Iran would show flexibility in nuclear negotiations, said the two Iranian and three regional sources. Israeli rescuers search through the rubble of a heavily damaged building, following an overnight Iranian missile strike in Bat Yam on 15 June 2025. Photo: Gil Cohen-Magen / AFP Netanyahu told Israeli troops at an air base that Israel was on its way to achieving its two main aims: wiping out Iran's nuclear programme and destroying its missiles. "We are on the path to victory," he said. "We are telling the citizens of Tehran: 'Evacuate' - and we are taking action." Israel launched its air war on Friday with a surprise attack that killed nearly the entire top echelon of Iran's military commanders and its leading nuclear scientists. It has said it now has control of Iranian airspace and intends to escalate its campaign in the coming days. Tehran's retaliation is the first time in decades of shadow war and proxy conflict that missiles fired from Iran have pierced Israeli defences in significant numbers and killed Israelis in their homes. Smoke billows from a site in the city of Haifa on 16 June 2025 following a fresh barrage of Iranian missiles. Photo: Ahmad Gharabli / AFP Iran said more than 224 Iranians have been killed, most of them civilians. Media published images of wounded children, women, and the elderly from cities across the country. State TV broadcast scenes of collapsed presidential buildings, burned-out cars, and shattered streets in Tehran. Many residents were trying to flee the capital, describing queues for petrol and bank machines that were out of cash. "I am desperate. My two children are scared and cannot sleep at night because of the sound of air defence and attacks, explosions. But we have nowhere to go. We hid under our dining table," Gholamreza Mohammadi, 48, a civil servant, told Reuters by phone from Tehran. In Israel, 24 people have been killed so far in Iran's missile attacks, all of them civilians. Round-the-clock television images showed rescuers working in ruins of flattened homes. Responders evacuate a man from a damaged building following a strike by an Iranian missile in the Israeli city of Petah Tikva, east of Tel Aviv. Photo: AFP / Jack Guez "It's terrifying because it's so unknown," said Guydo Tetelbaum, 31, a chef in Tel Aviv who was in his apartment when the alerts came in shortly after 4am (1am GMT). He had tried to reach a shelter but his door was blown in. "This could be the beginning of a long time like this. Or it could get worse, or hopefully better, but it's the unknown that's the scariest." Trump has consistently said that the Israeli assault could end quickly if Iran agrees to US demands that it accept strict curbs to its nuclear programme. Talks between the US and Iran, hosted by Oman, had been scheduled for Sunday but were scrapped, with Tehran saying it could not negotiate while under attack. On Monday, Iranian lawmakers floated the idea of quitting the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, a move bound to be seen as a setback for any negotiations. Israeli air defence systems are activated to intercept Iranian missiles over the Israeli city of Tel Aviv. Photo: AFP / Menahem Kahana Before dawn on Monday, Iranian missiles struck Tel Aviv and Haifa, killing at least eight people and destroying homes. Israeli authorities said a total of seven missiles fired overnight had landed in Israel. At least 100 people were wounded. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said the latest attack employed a new method that caused Israel's multi-layered defence systems to target each other so missiles could get through. "The arrogant dictator of Tehran has become a cowardly murderer who targets the civilian home front in Israel to deter the IDF," Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said. "The residents of Tehran will pay the price, and soon." Photo: AFP/MENAHEM KAHANA Global oil prices had shot up on Friday at the prospect of conflict disrupting supplies from the Gulf. Prices eased somewhat on Monday, suggesting traders think exports could be spared despite Israeli attacks that hit domestic Iranian oil and gas targets. Still, the sudden killing of so many Iranian military commanders and the apparent loss of control of airspace could prove to be the biggest test of the stability of Iran's system of clerical rule since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Iran's network of regional allies who could once have been expected to rain rockets on Israel - Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon - have been decimated by Israeli forces since the start of the Gaza war. Netanyahu has said that, while toppling the Iranian government is not Israel's primary aim, it believes that could be the outcome. Iran's currency has lost at least 10 percent of its value against the US dollar since the start of Israel's attack. Art teacher Arshia, 29, told Reuters that his family was leaving Tehran for the town of Damavand, around 50km to the east, until the conflict was over. "My parents are scared. Every night there are attacks. No air raid sirens, and no shelters to go to. Why are we paying the price for the Islamic Republic's hostile policies?" said Arshia, who withheld his surname for fear of reprisal from authorities. - Reuters
