What video can tell us about Iran and Israel's military strategies

Australia Broadcast Center

17 hours ago

Analysis of video and images showing Israeli and Iranian strikes on each other's territory reveals two very different strategies being employed in the conflict.
ABC NEWS Verify has looked at the vision and images of missile and drone strikes across Iran and Israel, assessing the type of munitions used and what it could mean for the length of the armed engagement.
They reveal Iran's strategy appears to be one of overwhelming Israeli defence capabilities, in the hope its ground-launched missiles will breach the country's missile defence systems.
Israel, meanwhile, has employed a strategy using more targeted strikes, launched from fighter jets or drones, to hit infrastructure and personnel.
Expert in war studies in the Middle East for Deakin University, associate professor Ahmed Hashim, said the conflict so far has been solely aerial — fighter jets, drones and missiles launched from silos or the backs of trucks.
"[This is] an aerial war between the most advanced air force in the region and the most advanced ballistic missile capability in the Middle East," he said.
Video shot in Beirut, Lebanon, shows some of the ballistic missiles Iran has launched from its territory, but Dr Hashim said it would be a fraction of the country's stockpile.
"[They have] the most extensive range of ballistic missiles, no other country in the Middle East and very few other countries in the region have that," he said.
When the missiles get through Israel's missile defence systems, as they did in the city of Haifa, Dr Hashim said he believed hypersonic missiles such as Iran's Fattah-1 were being used.
"It is an extensive capability that has given them considerable power, but Israel still has an air force second to none."
Anti-missile systems such as Iron Dome, David's Sling, and Arrow have a reported 90 per cent success rate, but Dr Hashim said Iran's retaliatory strategy has been to overwhelm the defences.
"They're using a mixture of hypersonics and solid- and liquid-fuel ballistic missiles, and basically what they're trying to do is to create a concept of operations to deceive the Israeli defensive systems."
Dr Hashim also disputed Iron Dome's claimed success rate.
"We also have to be a little bit wary of both sides making bombastic claims, and you know these are quite often for propaganda," he said, noting that Iran also makes unverifiable claims about its missiles.
In Iran, video shows smoke rising from a city.
Dr Hashim said it was evidence of strikes launched from fighter jets, rather than missiles launched from sites within Israel.
Israel uses a modified version of the F-35 fighter jet, the F-35I, Dr Hashim told ABC NEWS Verify.
Missiles launched from an F-35I can hit a target many kilometres away from the aircraft's airborne position, he said.
This image of Haifa's oil refinery, taken on June 16, shows a large damage zone.
Dr Hashim said ballistic missiles tend to be used on larger targets like power plants and oil refineries that don't require precision.
This image, taken in Tehran, which first appeared online on June 13, shows a small puncture in the side of a building near Nobonyad Square, a likely missile attack, he said.
Separately, an Israeli security source told Reuters that Israel's intelligence agency, Mossad, had deployed weapons from within Iran, including drones and precision-guided weapons systems.
Grainy footage released by the agency showed two camouflaged figures crouched in desert terrain. The video could not be independently verified.
Dr Hashim told ABC NEWS Verify that Iran had let its air force age in recent years.
"Iran's Air Force is largely an antique museum piece. Because it's largely 40-45 years old," he said.
"Iran was hoping to revitalise its air force when sanctions were off.
"But basically, they've put their eggs in the basket of ballistic missiles. And they've developed a whole generation of ballistic missiles, including the hypersonic Fatah 1 and Fatah 2."
Israel, Dr Hashim said, is looking for total regime change, and for that, they'll need time.
The key site inside Iran in the coming days will be the Fordow nuclear facility, according to Dr Hashim.
Fordow is an underground uranium-enrichment facility about 30km north-east of the city of Qom.
"If you destroy Fordow, you're actually hitting a major element of the legitimacy of the regime," Dr Hashim said
Satellite imagery makes it clear that Israel has already done significant damage to Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure. Dr Hashim told ABC NEWS Verify that Israel was trying to wear Iran down.
"This is a war of attrition," he said.
"It could go from, 'OK, we'll degrade its capabilities for as long as possible that the regime falls,' or enough chaos happens, or they essentially surrender."