UK weather: Heatwaves above 40C are the future, says Met Office
With parts of Britain set to experience a heatwave peaking at 33C this weekend, a study has found far hotter temperatures could be in store.
Writing in the journal Weather, a team of Met Office scientists used computer models to simulate how likely the country is to see a repeat of the unprecedented 40C recorded three years ago. They found a 50 per cent chance of 40C occurring again in the next 12 years.
The likelihood has increased massively in the past few decades due to global warming. In the 1960s the chance of a year with temperatures hitting 40C was vanishingly small, at 0.2 per cent. By 2023, it had risen to 4.2 per cent. The likelihood will increase further in coming years as carbon emissions continue to drive up global temperatures, the Met Office experts said.
'The chance of exceeding 40C has been rapidly increasing, and it is now over 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s. Because our climate continues to warm, we can expect the chance to keep rising,' Gillian Kay, lead author of the study, said.
At the very upper end, the team were able to simulate much higher temperatures under today's level of climate change. 'We find that temperatures several degrees above those recorded in July 2022 are plausible, with a simulated maximum of 46.6°C,' they wrote.
However, the team said they could not put a likelihood on the maximum temperature being reached.
Britain can expect now expect 63 hot days a year, up from 39 three decades ago
FINNBARR WEBSTER/GETTY IMAGES
'A day with a temperature as high as 46.6C would be exceedingly rare, but the important message is that we should be preparing for temperatures in excess of 40C, as these are possible in today's climate,' Kay said.
• Is this the warmest spring for second year running?
The infamously hot and dry summer of 1976 had the longest continuous heatwave on record, at 18 days above 28C. However, the Met team's model was able to simulate the possibility of a continuous heatwave of 39 days in today's climate.
The scientists also projected the frequency and duration of future heatwaves in southeast England, as the area most frequently experiences the country's highest summer temperatures. The maximum number of hot days in the region is now estimated at 63 a year, up from an observed maximum of 39 in 1995.
Temperatures this Sunday are expected to reach 33C, nearing the June record of 35.6C set in 1976. High pressure and rising temperatures have led to yellow heat-health alerts being issued for most of England from midday on Wednesday to Sunday evening. A yellow alert indicates preparations should be made for more vulnerable people, including the elderly.
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