Don't Panic, But the Chances of That City Killer Asteroid Hitting Earth Just Almost Doubled
Two weeks ago, they calculated that the space rock, dubbed 2024 YR4, had a 1.3 percent chance of hitting the Earth — and now, that probability has risen substantially.
That's the bad news. The good news is that there's still only a 2.1 percent chance of a "Don't Look Up" scenario, or 1 in 48 odds, according to the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's Center for Near Earth Object Studies (and, while the asteroid is big enough to cause catastrophic damage to a city, it's not large enough to threaten the whole planet, like the one that took out the dinosaurs.)
Still, the odds are significant enough that astronomers are hoping to use NASA's James Webb Space Telescope to get a better understanding of the asteroid's size and where it's headed, according to an update by the European Space Agency.
"The chance of impact is very slim, and the asteroid is small enough that the effects of any potential impact would be on a local scale," the ESA wrote, "but the situation is significant enough to warrant the attention of the global planetary defense community."
Getting a better idea of the size, in particular, could prove vital, as the "hazard represented by a 40-meter asteroid is very different from that of a 90-meter asteroid."
And if it doesn't impact the Earth, there's a minuscule chance of 0.3 percent or so that it could hit the Moon instead, according to University of Arizona asteroid hunter David Rankin.
In a recent Bluesky post, Rankin speculated that if it were to bash into our closest celestial neighbor, "it should be visible to us if it happens, which would be neat."
"There is the possibility this would eject some material back out that could hit the Earth, but I highly doubt it would cause any major threat," he told New Scientist.
Besides, experts suggest that most of that material would burn up in the Earth's protective atmosphere anyway.
As New Scientist reports, 2024 YR4 would hit the Moon's surface at full speed since it doesn't have an atmosphere, exploding with the force equivalent to 343 times the energy released by the atomic bomb that was dropped on Hiroshima.
The probability of 2024 YR4 impacting the Earth is likely to fluctuate over the coming years. Usually, the odds of near-Earth objects hitting us tend to diminish over time, as the New York Times reported last month.
Nonetheless, at a 2.1 percent chance, the space rock still scores a three on the Torino Impact Hazard scale, which measures the probability of an asteroid striking the Earth.
That means it's an "encounter, meriting attention by astronomers," as well as the "public and by public officials," according to NASA's Jet Propulsion Lab.
Interestingly, the only other asteroid that scored higher on the Torino scale than 2024 YR4 was the 1300-feet-across space rock Apophis, which reached a record of four in December 2004.
In short, it remains to be seen whether we'll have to pull out the big guns: fortunately, NASA already has a successful asteroid redirection test under its belt.
More on the space rock: Scientists Say If We're Extremely Lucky, This Asteroid May Put Us Out of Our Misery
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