Don't Panic, But the Chances of That City Killer Asteroid Hitting Earth Just Almost Doubled
Scientists at NASA and around the world have been closely following a near-Earth asteroid, the size of a large building, that they say could impact the Earth on December 22, 2032.
Two weeks ago, they calculated that the space rock, dubbed 2024 YR4, had a 1.3 percent chance of hitting the Earth — and now, that probability has risen substantially.
That's the bad news. The good news is that there's still only a 2.1 percent chance of a "Don't Look Up" scenario, or 1 in 48 odds, according to the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's Center for Near Earth Object Studies (and, while the asteroid is big enough to cause catastrophic damage to a city, it's not large enough to threaten the whole planet, like the one that took out the dinosaurs.)
Still, the odds are significant enough that astronomers are hoping to use NASA's James Webb Space Telescope to get a better understanding of the asteroid's size and where it's headed, according to an update by the European Space Agency.
"The chance of impact is very slim, and the asteroid is small enough that the effects of any potential impact would be on a local scale," the ESA wrote, "but the situation is significant enough to warrant the attention of the global planetary defense community."
Getting a better idea of the size, in particular, could prove vital, as the "hazard represented by a 40-meter asteroid is very different from that of a 90-meter asteroid."
And if it doesn't impact the Earth, there's a minuscule chance of 0.3 percent or so that it could hit the Moon instead, according to University of Arizona asteroid hunter David Rankin.
In a recent Bluesky post, Rankin speculated that if it were to bash into our closest celestial neighbor, "it should be visible to us if it happens, which would be neat."
"There is the possibility this would eject some material back out that could hit the Earth, but I highly doubt it would cause any major threat," he told New Scientist.
Besides, experts suggest that most of that material would burn up in the Earth's protective atmosphere anyway.
As New Scientist reports, 2024 YR4 would hit the Moon's surface at full speed since it doesn't have an atmosphere, exploding with the force equivalent to 343 times the energy released by the atomic bomb that was dropped on Hiroshima.
The probability of 2024 YR4 impacting the Earth is likely to fluctuate over the coming years. Usually, the odds of near-Earth objects hitting us tend to diminish over time, as the New York Times reported last month.
Nonetheless, at a 2.1 percent chance, the space rock still scores a three on the Torino Impact Hazard scale, which measures the probability of an asteroid striking the Earth.
That means it's an "encounter, meriting attention by astronomers," as well as the "public and by public officials," according to NASA's Jet Propulsion Lab.
Interestingly, the only other asteroid that scored higher on the Torino scale than 2024 YR4 was the 1300-feet-across space rock Apophis, which reached a record of four in December 2004.
In short, it remains to be seen whether we'll have to pull out the big guns: fortunately, NASA already has a successful asteroid redirection test under its belt.
More on the space rock: Scientists Say If We're Extremely Lucky, This Asteroid May Put Us Out of Our Misery
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Moon go up again
An asteroid that, until a few months ago, was believed to be a threat to Earth is increasingly looking like it could crash into the Moon in 2032. Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on Dec. 27 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Río Hurtado, Chile. Since its discovery, the asteroid has warranted international attention, jumping to the highest asteroid threat on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. Chances Asteroid 2024 Yr4 Will Hit Moon Increase But Earth Remains In The Clear In February, new ground-based observations dropped those chances of an Earth impact enough that asteroid 2024 YR4 is no longer considered a threat to Earth. The international astronomy community continues to closely watch asteroid 2024 YR4, which is no longer visible through ground-based telescopes until 2028. In May, a team led by Andy Rivkin, with Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Maryland, used the James Webb Space Telescope's (JWST) Near-Infrared Camera to hone in on 2024 YR4. JWST data, along with expert analysis from Nasa's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, have refined the asteroid's orbit, increasing the chances of a crash with the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032, from 3.8% to 4.3%. In February, the odds of a Moon impact were about 1.7%. However, NASA said if the asteroid does collide with the Moon, it will not alter its orbit. The Moon is covered in crater impacts from other space collisions. Previous observations by JWST helped determine 2024 YR4 is about 200 feet wide, or about the height of a 15-story building, Rivkin wrote in an April blog post for NASA. Asteroid 2024 YR4 has dipped behind the Sun and beyond Webb's view for article source: Odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Moon go up again
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
SpaceX readies private launch of four astronauts to International Space Station
Four crew members are set to launch Wednesday on a privately funded mission to the International Space Station. The flight, organized by the Houston-based company Axiom Space, is slated to lift off at 8 a.m. ET from NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The foursome will journey into orbit in a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule atop a Falcon 9 rocket. NASA will broadcast live coverage of the launch beginning at 7:05 a.m. ET on NASA+. The flight was scheduled to launch Tuesday but high winds along the Florida coast forced a one-day delay. The mission, known as Ax-4, is expected to last about two weeks at the International Space Station. The mission will be led by retired NASA astronaut Peggy Whitson, who has already logged a record 675 days in space — more than any other American astronaut. Joining her will be pilot Shubhanshu Shukla, an astronaut with the Indian Space Research Organization; mission specialist Sławosz Uznański-Wiśniewski, a Polish scientist with the European Space Agency; and mission specialist Tibor Kapu, a mechanical engineer from Hungary. Shukla, Uznański-Wiśniewski and Kapu will make history by becoming the first people from their countries to live and work on the International Space Station. During their two-week stay at the orbiting lab, the Ax-4 crew members will conduct a host of scientific experiments, according to NASA, including studies of muscle regeneration, how sprouts and edible microalgae grow in microgravity and how tiny aquatic organisms survive at the ISS. If the launch goes according to plan, the four astronauts will dock at the space station on Thursday at around 12:30 p.m. ET. The upcoming flight will be Axiom Space's fourth crewed mission to the International Space Station. The company's first private expedition to the ISS was in 2022 with an all-civilian crew. The price tag for the Ax-4 mission has not been publicly disclosed, but space tourists reportedly paid around $55 million per seat on previous Axiom Space expeditions. This article was originally published on


Politico
an hour ago
- Politico
Trump's new tactic for bypassing Congress
President Donald Trump's budget chief is trying out an audacious strategy to eliminate congressionally approved funding without lawmakers' sign-off. Russ Vought, who leads the Office of Management and Budget, has directed a dozen federal agencies to freeze upward of $30 billion in spending on a broad array of programs, including ones at NASA and the Environmental Protection Agency, write Scott Waldman and Corbin Hiar. The plan is to delay that funding until the final weeks of the fiscal year, which runs until Sept. 30. Then, the White House will ask Congress to permanently eliminate the funding through a so-called rescission request. Even if Congress rejects the request — or, more likely, doesn't vote on it at all — the White House could try to withhold the funds until the fiscal year clock resets on Oct. 1 and the cuts become permanent. If the so-called pocket rescission works, it could pave the way for the administration to retroactively cancel congressional funding. 'I think it upends a fundamental check and balance contemplated in our Constitution, and I don't understand how you subordinate Congress' power of the purse,' Joseph Carlile, former associate director at OMB in the Biden administration, told Scott and Corbin. Vought is calling the funding freeze a deferral — which first requires congressional sign-off. But instead, he has told agencies to withhold the funds before he sends the deferral package to Congress. Some agency officials were 'shocked' at the move, an administration source with direct knowledge of the plan told Scott and Corbin. In a Friday email to top officials, the National Science Foundation's budget director wrote that the spending freeze targets the agency's research and education programs. 'I imagine you will all have questions, as do we,' Caitlyn Fife wrote. 'However we are immediately focused on pulling the funds back to ensure there are no further commitments or obligations.' Also on the list are tens of millions of dollars for national park operations as well as more than $100 million in science spending at NASA, which includes climate research. The strategy is expected to draw legal pushback. That could land the administration's effort before the Supreme Court, which Vought would welcome. He has long argued that impounding some congressionally appropriated funding is constitutional, and he has said he wants the Supreme Court to validate what would be a significant weakening of congressional oversight of the federal budget. It's Tuesday — thank you for tuning in to POLITICO's Power Switch. I'm your host, Arianna Skibell. Power Switch is brought to you by the journalists behind E&E News and POLITICO Energy. Send your tips, comments, questions to askibell@ Today in POLITICO Energy's podcast: Debra Kahn breaks down how carbon capture has largely dodged GOP attacks and why the technology hits close to home for House Speaker Mike Johnson. hot off the press Dispatches from POLITICO's 2025 Energy Summit today in Washington: GOP megabill could undermine US energy production, Republicans warnFive takeaways from the Trump administration officials, lawmakers, former policymakers and business leaders who spoke today. Trump energy adviser slams renewables, says focus is on fossil fuelsSome other Republicans might favor investing in solar and wind energy, but 'the president is in charge,' the executive director of the National Energy Dominance Council said. Energy powerhouse to Republicans: Don't 'take renewables off the table'The head of NextEra Energy warns that building new natural gas generation and nuclear power will take too long — and wind and solar power are quicker to add now. Heinrich: 'Republicans are going to own increased energy prices'GOP candidates will pay an 'enormous political price' for their cuts to renewable energy projects, the New Mexico Democrat predicted. Power Centers EPA to propose rolling back power plant ruleEPA will move Wednesday to repeal federal limits on power plant climate pollution, write Jean Chemnick and Zack Colman. EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin will announce the proposal to roll back the Biden-era rule at an event at agency headquarters, according to six people familiar with the situation. He will also propose repealing a separate regulation to curb hazardous air pollution such as mercury. Scrapping the power plant rule would effectively shelve regulations for the electricity sector, which accounts for one-quarter of U.S. greenhouse gases. California vehicle emission rules on chopping blockTrump plans to sign a trio of resolutions Thursday to revoke California's national-leading vehicle emissions standards, writes Alex Nieves. Trump's signature will finalize his administration's monthslong effort to thwart California's authority to set stricter electrification rules for passenger vehicles and commercial trucks, along with higher standards for heavy-duty diesel engines. Democrats scramble to save green creditsSenate Democrats are ramping up pressure on Republicans to try to protect swaths of their 2022 climate law as the GOP races to advance their party-line megabill, writes Kelsey Brugger. The situation has Democrats trying to influence legislation they have no intention of supporting. Whether they succeed is another question altogether. Utilities await DOE action on loansA growing chorus of consumer advocates and environmentalists is urging Trump's Energy Department to lock in billions of dollars in loan guarantees for utilities, arguing that the loans will help cut utility bills for everyday Americans as prices spike nationwide, write Brian Dabbs and Jason Plautz. The $23 billion in Biden-era loans — much of which would go to Midwest states that voted for Trump — could trigger big investments in new long-range power lines, batteries, clean energy and natural gas infrastructure. Subscriber Zone A showcase of some of our best subscriber content. Trump has taken a 'scorched earth' approach to climate policy by going far beyond his first-term actions, a former diplomat said Tuesday during the POLITICO Energy Summit. Utah Republican Sen. John Curtis raised doubts Tuesday the GOP could pass its megabill by its self-imposed Independence Day deadline. House Energy and Commerce Chair Brett Guthrie suggested Tuesday that he is looking ahead of the fight over Republicans' mega reconciliation bill toward bipartisan legislation tackling issues like artificial intelligence. That's it for today, folks! Thanks for reading.