Latest news with #TorinoImpactHazard
Yahoo
19-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Killer Asteroid Could Be Headed for Some of the World's Most Populous Cities
According to NASA's Jet Propulsion Lab, near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 now has a 3.1 percent chance of colliding with our planet on December 22, 2032. That makes it the highest-threat asteroid ever detected, as Euronews reports. As of late January, the probability was sitting at just 1.3 percent, which then rose to 2.1 percent last week before rising yet again. Worse yet, the space agency suggests the asteroid could hit densely populated areas of our planet — if it were to make an impact just under eight years from now, that is. "In the unlikely event that 2024 YR4 is on an impact trajectory," NASA notes in a blog post, "the impact would occur somewhere along a risk corridor which extends across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia." As Euronews notes, those vast swathes contain some of the largest cities on Earth, including Bogota in Colombia and Mumbai in India. Thanks to its size of anywhere between 130 and 330 feet in length, the devastation could be significant if it were to crash down anywhere near a population center. According to NASA, the space rock would approach the Earth's surface at a terrifying 38,000 mph. Upon impact, it would release eight megatons of energy, which is more than 500 times the energy released by the bomb that was dropped on Hiroshima, Japan in 1945. Earlier this week, the European Space Agency noted that 2024 YR4 surpassed the 2.7 percent chance of impact associated with the much larger asteroid, dubbed Apophis, back in 2004, claiming the crown as the "'riskiest' asteroid ever detected." "As more observations of the asteroid are made, the uncertainty region will continue to shrink and the impact probability may continue to rise," the ESA wrote. "If we reach a point at which Earth is no longer inside this region, the impact probability will quickly drop to zero." As of right now, 2024 YR4 still comes in at a three on the 11-point Torino Impact Hazard scale, which measures the probability of an asteroid hitting the Earth. That, according to JPL, means that the possible impact is "meriting attention by astronomers," plus attention "by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away." Apart from having a 3.1 percent chance of hitting the Earth, the space rock also has a less than one percent chance of hitting the Moon instead. It's a highly intriguing object that's convinced NASA to use its groundbreaking James Webb Space Telescope to have a closer look. Whether its trajectory warrants an intervention, like the space agency's asteroid-redirecting DART spacecraft, which successfully knocked asteroid Dimorphos out of its orbit in 2022, remains to be seen. More on the space rock: Don't Freak Out, But the Chances of That City Killer Asteroid Hitting Earth Just Ticked Up Again
Yahoo
19-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Don't Freak Out, But the Chances of That City Killer Asteroid Hitting Earth Just Ticked Up Again
The potential city-killer asteroid that could strike our planet in 2032 is looking more foreboding by the week. Spotted just after Christmas, the initial odds of the skyscraper-sized space rock, dubbed 2024 YR4, smashing into Earth was put at roughly 1.2 percent, or a 1 in 83 chance. Then it was upgraded to 2.1 percent, or 1-in-48, last week. And now, the latest analysis from NASA has raised the odds yet again. The likelihood of a collision is currently estimated to be 3.1 percent, or about a 1-in-32 chance, according to figures from NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies — nearly three times the initial prediction. These are still slim odds, but they don't feel slim enough. With estimates putting it between 130 and 330 feet in length — a pretty broad range, underscoring how little we know about the asteroid at the moment — YR 2024's impact could potentially unleash an explosion 500 times as powerful as the atom bomb dropped on Hiroshima, per Wired, at the upper end of the size range. And based on the asteroid's current trajectory, the "risk corridor" illustrating where the object could crash stretches across the Pacific Ocean, with countries ranging from Ecuador to India lying in its damage path. This extent of the carnage assumes that 2024 YR4 is as large as it appears — and doesn't plunk into the ocean (where it could still cause a formidable wave), which makes up nearly three-fourths of the Earth's surface. At any rate, these visions of city-wide destruction may be extremely premature, even if the odds of planetfall have increased. "Just because it's gone up in the last week, doesn't mean that it's going to continue to do that," Hugh Lewis, an astronomer at the UK's University of Southampton, told New Scientist. The asteroid is still only ranked at 3 on the 11-point Torino Impact Hazard scale, meaning that it's big enough — and will pass close enough — to warrant our attention, but is by no means a guaranteed hit. The numbers we're seeing now may simply represent temporary fluctuations. "No one should be concerned that the impact probability is rising. This is the behavior our team expected," Paul Chodas, director of NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, told The Associated Press. "To be clear, we expect the impact probability to drop to zero at some point." The window for observing 2024 YR4 will close in April, when it flies behind the Sun. It won't reappear until 2028, at which point we'll hopefully have a far better picture of where it's going to end up. In the meantime, astronomers hope to use the James Webb Space Telescope and other powerful observatories to glean as much data on the asteroid as possible before it performs its solar disappearing act. "That will help us determine what we need to do about it, because if it's a stony asteroid, that's very different from a high proportion of iron-metal asteroid," Lewis told New Scientist. An iron-heavy asteroid would cause more damage, because it wouldn't break apart on impact, he explained. "The mass makes a huge difference in terms of the energy and whether or not the atmosphere has an effect on it." More on space rocks: Video Shows Meteorite Smashing Ground Right Where Man Had Been Standing
Yahoo
11-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Don't Panic, But the Chances of That City Killer Asteroid Hitting Earth Just Almost Doubled
Scientists at NASA and around the world have been closely following a near-Earth asteroid, the size of a large building, that they say could impact the Earth on December 22, 2032. Two weeks ago, they calculated that the space rock, dubbed 2024 YR4, had a 1.3 percent chance of hitting the Earth — and now, that probability has risen substantially. That's the bad news. The good news is that there's still only a 2.1 percent chance of a "Don't Look Up" scenario, or 1 in 48 odds, according to the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's Center for Near Earth Object Studies (and, while the asteroid is big enough to cause catastrophic damage to a city, it's not large enough to threaten the whole planet, like the one that took out the dinosaurs.) Still, the odds are significant enough that astronomers are hoping to use NASA's James Webb Space Telescope to get a better understanding of the asteroid's size and where it's headed, according to an update by the European Space Agency. "The chance of impact is very slim, and the asteroid is small enough that the effects of any potential impact would be on a local scale," the ESA wrote, "but the situation is significant enough to warrant the attention of the global planetary defense community." Getting a better idea of the size, in particular, could prove vital, as the "hazard represented by a 40-meter asteroid is very different from that of a 90-meter asteroid." And if it doesn't impact the Earth, there's a minuscule chance of 0.3 percent or so that it could hit the Moon instead, according to University of Arizona asteroid hunter David Rankin. In a recent Bluesky post, Rankin speculated that if it were to bash into our closest celestial neighbor, "it should be visible to us if it happens, which would be neat." "There is the possibility this would eject some material back out that could hit the Earth, but I highly doubt it would cause any major threat," he told New Scientist. Besides, experts suggest that most of that material would burn up in the Earth's protective atmosphere anyway. As New Scientist reports, 2024 YR4 would hit the Moon's surface at full speed since it doesn't have an atmosphere, exploding with the force equivalent to 343 times the energy released by the atomic bomb that was dropped on Hiroshima. The probability of 2024 YR4 impacting the Earth is likely to fluctuate over the coming years. Usually, the odds of near-Earth objects hitting us tend to diminish over time, as the New York Times reported last month. Nonetheless, at a 2.1 percent chance, the space rock still scores a three on the Torino Impact Hazard scale, which measures the probability of an asteroid striking the Earth. That means it's an "encounter, meriting attention by astronomers," as well as the "public and by public officials," according to NASA's Jet Propulsion Lab. Interestingly, the only other asteroid that scored higher on the Torino scale than 2024 YR4 was the 1300-feet-across space rock Apophis, which reached a record of four in December 2004. In short, it remains to be seen whether we'll have to pull out the big guns: fortunately, NASA already has a successful asteroid redirection test under its belt. More on the space rock: Scientists Say If We're Extremely Lucky, This Asteroid May Put Us Out of Our Misery
Yahoo
06-02-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Asteroid's chances of hitting Earth have nearly doubled in a week, ESA scientist warns
The chances of an asteroid that could be up to 300ft (100m) wide hitting Earth in 2032 have almost doubled after new telescope scans, an expert told Yahoo News. The European Space Agency (ESA) has raised the odds of the asteroid designated 2024 YR4 hitting Earth to 2.2% following updated data from telescopes in recent days. The odds were put at 1.2% as recently as 29 January. Juan L. Cano, of the ESA's Planetary Defence Office, told Yahoo News on Thursday: "The results are analysed on a daily basis, so we are updating the results every day with observations that are provided. "We are retrieving that information, the new measurements in order to redo all the calculations on a daily basis. We are reaching the 2% today. Yesterday we reached 1.8%. Cano says that the probability of the asteroid hitting Earth will either increase to 100%, drop to 0%, or increase for a while, then reduce to zero as more measurements come in. If the asteroid is bigger than 50 metres, the ESA will debate sending a space mission to intercept it, according to Cano. "We have two scenarios here, if we see that the impact probabilities have not gone down in April, The Space Mission Planning Advisory Group, will decide if the asteroid is bigger than 50 meters - if it is not, the suggested solution is evacuation of the impact area," Cano told Yahoo News The asteroid is currently moving away from Earth and astronomers are observing it with increasingly large telescopes. Astronomer Dr David Whitehouse told Sky News that another potential option would be launching a nuclear weapon. "I think this has the potential to be very serious indeed," he said on Thursday. "So, we have to keep a close eye on this object because it could turn out to be the most dangerous thing in space," The asteroid was spotted on 27 December by NASA's Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS). ATLAS is a warning system for asteroid impacts consisting of four telescopes. It is designed to offer a minimum of 'several weeks' of warning before the impact of a 300ft asteroid like 2024 YR4. As telescope technology has improved, the number of asteroids spotted has increased, although the number of space rocks remains the same. The ESA estimates that the asteroid is between 40m (131ft) and 100m (328ft). That would potentially make the space rock's width similar to the height of Big Ben in London, which is 316ft tall. The time of closest approach to Earth (when it could potentially impact) is the 22 December, 2032. The asteroid has been ranked as 'level 3' on the Torino Impact Hazard scale - but NASA says this is likely to drop. NASA describes level 3 asteroids as a "close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localised destruction." It adds: "Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away." It is difficult to accurately predict any potential damage. NASA says that an 100m asteroid has 10 times the destructive force of the 2021 Tonga volcanic eruption, which caused a large explosion and tsunamis in several countries. The damage caused by such an explosion would vary depending on where the asteroid hit. "An asteroid this size impacts Earth on average every few thousand years and could cause severe damage to a local region," the ESA has said. NASA says that the impact could kill up to a million people, "averaged over all possible impact locations". "These deaths could result from a direct hit or by tsunami (tidal wave) in the event of an ocean strike," it adds. An asteroid thought to have been around 60ft across 'blew up' over the Russian town of Chelyabinsk in 2013. During the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, 1,500 people were injured and 7,300 buildings damaged by the intense overpressure generated by the shockwave at Earth's surface.
Yahoo
31-01-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
What we know about 300ft asteroid that has a chance of crashing into Earth
A freshly spotted asteroid that is up to 300ft wide detected by an automated telescope in December has a small chance of hitting Earth in 2032, scientists have said. The asteroid has been designated 2024 YR4 and is believed to have a 1-in-83 chance of striking Earth. Currently 27 million miles from Earth, it's too early to know where it could strike but it has been placed top of impact priority lists and is being scanned by scientists around the world Such an impact could cause devastating damage, either in the form of an 'airburst' explosion or an explosion on impact. The asteroid was spotted on 27 December by NASA's Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS). ATLAS is a warning system for asteroid impacts consisting of four telescopes. It is designed to offer a minimum of 'several weeks' of warning before the impact of a 300ft asteroid like 2024 YR4. As telescope technology has improved, the number of asteroids spotted has increased, although the number of space rocks remains the same. Recently-discovered #asteroid 2024 YR4 may make a very close approach to Earth in 8 years. It is thought to be 40-100 meters wide. Uncertainty is still high and more and more observations are needed confirm this. — Tony Dunn (@tony873004) January 28, 2025 The European Space Agency estimates that the asteroid is between 40m (131ft) and 100m (328ft). That would potentially make the space rock's width similar to the height of Big Ben in London, which is 316ft tall. The time of closest approach to Earth (when it could potentially impact) is the 22 December, 2032. According to NASA's Center of Near Earth Object studies, it should pass within 66,000 miles of our planet on that day. The range of uncertainties in the calculation means an impact is possible. As of this week, the asteroid has a 1.2% chance of hitting Earth, according to the European Space Agency. In recent history, the 'odds' of asteroids hitting Earth have tended to go down the more that astronomers observe an asteroid. The asteroid has been ranked as 'level 3' on the Torino Impact Hazard scale - but NASA says this is likely to drop. NASA describes level 3 asteroids as a "close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localised destruction." It adds: "Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away." NASA's Atlas says that an 100m asteroid has 10 times the destructive force of the 2021 Tonga volcanic eruption, which caused a large explosion and tsunamis in several countries. The damage caused by such an explosion would vary depending on where the asteroid hit. "An asteroid this size impacts Earth on average every few thousand years and could cause severe damage to a local region," the European Space Agency has said. NASA says that the impact could kill up to a million people, "averaged over all possible impact locations". NASA says, 'These deaths could result from a direct hit or by tsunami (tidal wave) in the event of an ocean strike.' An asteroid 'blew up' over the Russian town of Chelyabinsk in 2013. It is thought to have been around 60 feet across. During the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, 1,500 people were injured and 7,300 buildings damaged by the intense overpressure generated by the shockwave at Earth's surface. A 5-meter rock is estimated to target Earth once a year, and a 50-meter rock once every thousand years, according to NASA. Smaller rocks, like the asteroid that exploded over Chelyabinsk, will hit our planet every 10 to 100 years.
