Dream vs. Sun prediction: WNBA picks, odds, best bets Friday

New York Post

2 days ago

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Winning at sports betting often means casual fans will think you are nuts — and that has nothing to do with the actual willingness to place a wager.
It may revolve around the fact that you are willing to back a bad team.
The Connecticut Sun lost by 48 points in their last game and are among the WNBA's worst teams, if not the worst.
However, that is often an opportunity to find value backing them.
The Sun are 9.5-point home underdogs Friday to the Atlanta Dream, who have been a pleasant surprise this season at 5-2.
I am tempted to back the Sun in the first quarter because I think they will play hard coming off that embarrassing loss, and there is a good chance that Atlanta will look past this weak opponent, especially since the Dream already defeated Connecticut by 24 points while playing without one of their best players.
Marina Mabrey #3 of the Connecticut Sun drives to the basket during the game against the Dallas Wings on May 27, 2025 at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut.
NBAE via Getty Images
Thus, I think the gap in effort and focus will be most pronounced in the first quarter.
But I have a better angle, and it involves a proposition bet.
I want to back Marina Mabrey to play a good game. She only finished with eight points on 2-for-11 shooting in that blowout loss.
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Plus, in the previous meeting with Atlanta, she finished with just 12 points on 4-for-14 shooting.
That also included a few missed layups.
Mabrey is an extreme competitor, and I fully anticipate a bounce-back performance in the rematch.
Her points prop is 15.5 points, and I think she surpasses that.
The Dream had their way with the Sun last month.
NBAE via Getty Images
However, I'd rather play Over 18.5 combined points and assists.
She keeps defenses off balance with her impressive shooting range and, thus, can find open teammates once teams adjust.
I am 45-40-1 ATS in this Post sports section. My next play is Mabrey Over 18.5 points and assists (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook).
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. Doug has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He's also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.