Will Harley-Davidson Stock Rise On Its Upcoming Earnings?

Forbes

3 days ago

ST PETERSBURG, RUSSIA - 2025/05/18: Harley Davidson logo seen on a motorcycle during the general ... More motorcycle race. (Photo by Artem Priakhin/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) is anticipated to announce its Q2 2025 earnings on Wednesday, July 30, 2025. Consensus forecasts suggest earnings of approximately $0.96 per share, a decline from $1.63 in the same quarter last year, while revenue is expected to reach around $1.1 billion, representing nearly a 19% decrease year-over-year. This significant fall indicates a diminishing interest in Harley's high-end, lifestyle-oriented motorcycles, as consumer confidence remains low amid elevated interest rates and widespread economic uncertainty. Furthermore, tariffs enacted during the Trump Administration may complicate the company's global supply chain and increase costs for specific imported parts. Harley-Davidson has retracted its full-year 2025 outlook due to uncertainties related to trade policies and macroeconomic fluctuations. Nonetheless, management has stated its commitment to cost control and stricter inventory management to better address these challenges.
The company currently holds a market capitalization of $3.0 billion. Revenue for the past twelve months was $4.8 billion, and it achieved operational profitability, generating $314 million in operating profits and $354 million in net income. Much will hinge on how the results compare against consensus predictions and market expectations, but recognizing historical trends may work in favor of those involved in event-driven trading.
There are two approaches to achieve this: either grasp the historical odds and position yourself ahead of the earnings announcement, or analyze the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns following earnings and adjust your position accordingly after the earnings are disclosed. That said, if you are looking for upside potential with reduced volatility compared to individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative, having surpassed the S&P 500 and provided returns of over 91% since its launch.
View earnings reaction history of all stocks
Here are some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns: Over the past five years, there have been 17 earnings data points recorded, with 11 positive and 6 negative one-day (1D) returns noted. To summarize, positive 1D returns occurred approximately 65% of the time.
and one-day (1D) returns noted. To summarize, positive 1D returns occurred approximately 65% of the time. This percentage, however, drops to 64% when analyzing data from the last 3 years instead of 5.
The median of the 11 positive returns is 7.8%, and the median of the 6 negative returns is -6.8%
Further data concerning observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings is encapsulated along with the relevant statistics in the table below.
HOG 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return Trefis
A less risky strategy (though ineffective if the correlation is weak) is to determine the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings and target the pair with the strongest correlation to execute the necessary trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D exhibit the highest correlation, a trader could position themselves 'long' for the subsequent 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) historical performance. It's important to note that the correlation 1D_5D reflects the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and the following 5D returns.
HOG Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns Trefis
Occasionally, the performance of peers can influence the stock's reaction following earnings. In fact, market adjustments may begin prior to the announcement of the earnings. Below is historical data showcasing the post-earnings performance of Harley-Davidson stock in comparison to the stock performance of peers who reported earnings just before Harley-Davidson. For equitable comparison, peer stock returns also reflect one-day (1D) post-earnings results.
HOG Correlation With Peer Earnings Trefis
Discover more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (which combines all three: the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000) to deliver considerable returns for investors. Alternatively, if you desire upside potential with a smoother experience than investing in a single stock like Harley-Davidson, consider the High Quality portfolio , which has surpassed the S&P and achieved returns exceeding 91% since inception.