More stock market records, more trade deals, more trade talks — plus, lots of earnings

CNBC

2 days ago

The S & P 500 rose every day this past week as trade deals, both in the works and announced, lent support to the market. The index heads into the final stretch of a strong July at record highs. For the week, the S & P 500 gained nearly 1.5%. The Nasdaq did not go wire to wire in the green this week, but it did rise 1%, closing at another record high. Ahead of the last trading day of the month on Thursday, the S & P 500 was up almost 3% for July, while the Nasdaq jumped 3.6%. The best session of the week came on Wednesday after President Donald Trump announced the night before what he called a "massive" trade agreement with Japan ahead of the Aug. 1 deadline. The deal settled on a 15% tariff on goods entering the United States from Japan, including automobiles. In exchange, Japan will invest $550 billion in America and open its market to more imports from the U.S. The trade focus now shifts to China and the European Union. Next week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent travels to Stockholm for talks with Chinese officials about extending the negotiating window for a trade deal. Regarding the EU, Trump said Friday he sees only a "50-50 chance" of a deal with the trading bloc. The president plans to meet with EU officials in Scotland on Sunday. .SPX .IXIC 5D mountain S & P 500 and Nasdaq 5-day performance The other big news of this past week was Trump's trip to the Federal Reserve on Thursday. He toured the central bank renovation site with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. They spoke with reporters and had an uncomfortable moment over renovation costs. Trump signaled that he's no longer considering firing Powell. The president told reporters Friday that Powell and he had a "good meeting" about interest rates, and he believes the Fed will start cutting them. Powell has kept rates steady since December 2024, saying central bankers need more time to see how finalized tariffs will impact inflation. On the economy, the June existing home sales report was released on Wednesday, followed by June new home sales on Thursday. While sales of both were slower than expected, the reports diverged when it came to prices. The median price of a previously owned home sold in June was $435,300, up year over year and the 24th consecutive month of annual increases, according to the National Association of Realtors. However, government data showed the median sales price of new homes sold last month was $401,800 — below May and below year-ago levels. Watching housing price trends is important because it can give us signals on where shelter costs might be headed, which have been a key factor keeping overall inflation elevated. Second quarter earnings season has kicked into full gear, with results thus far coming in better than expected. According to FactSet, a third of the S & P 500 companies have already reported, with 80% of those delivering upside surprises to both sales and earnings expectations. Within the Club portfolio, we heard from Danaher, GE Vernova, Capital One, Honeywell, and Dover. Talk about a blowout. GE Vernova came into the quarterly print near all-time highs, setting a high bar of expectations, which it easily hopped over. The stock was rewarded with record highs and was our top performer of the week, with 12% gains. Shares have nearly doubled in 2025 versus the S & P 500's 8.6% advance this year. GE Vernova on Wednesday reported strong order growth and robust EBITDA margin expansion. EBITDA stands for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Strong backlog growth also gives us confidence that end market demand remains healthy. "This era of accelerated electrification is driving unprecedented investments in reliable power, grid infrastructure, and decarbonization solutions," CEO Scott Strazik said on the post-earnings call. Danaher on Tuesday delivered a strong set of results, albeit against relatively low expectations. The company did outpace expectations on the top and bottom lines, thanks to strength in all key operating segments. While Chinese sales in biotechnology and life sciences grew, the positive numbers were overshadowed by sustained weakness in diagnostics due to the countries volume-based procurement program. The quarter was enough to spark a relief rally and keep us in the name. Danaher was our second-best performer this week, rising 8%. Despite a good week, the stock was still down 10.5% year to date. Capital One delivered a noisy quarter on Tuesday due to the Discover integration. While shares were among our losers this week, down 2.5%, they have been on a roll, up more than 19% year to date. We saw enough the quarter to reaffirm our view that there will be some serious long-term benefits resulting from the acquisition and its payment network. Capital One is one of only two banks in the world with their own credit card network, the other being American Express. We will look for the company to leverage that edge into earnings growth and for the stock to be rewarded for it with a higher multiple as the integration progresses and management executes on their game plan. We were surprised by Thursday's more than 4% stock drop on Dover 's earnings. In addition to a top and bottom-line beat, the company reported a record adjusted segment EBITDA margin, an acceleration in bookings that provides visibility into the future. It also outlined several growth and productivity investments to support long-term growth. Compounding the strong results, management raised its full-year outlook on both revenue growth and adjusted earnings per share. For the week, Dover lost about 1%. Like Dover, Honeywell stock was also dinged after it reported Thursday morning, despite the results coming in largely better than expected. Shares were our worst performer of the week, down 5.2%. While there was some weakness in aerospace and in segment margin performance, we were satisfied with the explanation provided by management on the call and believe the weakness provides a buying opportunity ahead of what we think will be a value-creating breakup into three separate operating companies. The split will start in the fourth quarter of this year, when management spins off the advanced materials business, and continue in 2026 with the separation of aerospace, which will leave the automation business as the third public company. In the week ahead, we will get seven more Club name earnings, including Amazon , Apple , Meta Platforms , and Microsoft . (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.) 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