‘If this fails, he'll have egg on his face': Gavin Newsom bets political future on redistricting power play

Politico

2 days ago

For Newsom, the showdown is an opportunity to feed red meat to Democrats across the country.
'It's the No. 1 requirement for whomever becomes our de facto head in 2028,' said Jaime Harrison, the former chair of the Democratic National Committee. 'You have to be willing to fight.'
Assessing how blue-state governors like Newsom, JB Pritzker of Illinois and Kathy Hochul of New York are leaning in on the redistricting battle, Harrison was openly giddy: 'I'm ecstatic. I'm over the moon.'
Newsom's maneuver is exceedingly risky. He is a polarizing figure, even among Democrats, and any suggestion of using redistricting to advance his own interests could set off rounds of party infighting. If California voters end up rejecting the new districts, the setback would be monumental not just for Democrats' bid for the House, but also Newsom's future ambitions — a setback that would be compared to a primary presidential candidate losing their home state.
'Gavin Newsom's presidential campaign launch is predicated on the success of an initiative he says is saving democracy — an initiative which can only be successful if it's not operating as a presidential campaign launch,' said a Democratic strategist involved in both California statewide and competitive House seats who was granted anonymity to discuss internal party dynamics.
'If this fails, he'll have egg on his face,' the strategist said. 'He has to understand what the pitfalls are here.'
Redistricting, usually the provenance of election nerds, emerged as an unlikely flash point after Trump urged Texas Republicans to dramatically revamp their congressional maps to yield five more GOP seats. The gambit could be existential for Democrats' quest to retake the House in the midterms.
Other blue-state Democrats have taken on the rallying cry: Pritzker, also a potential presidential contender, welcomed Texas Democratic legislators fleeing their state to avoid voting on the GOP plan — and parlayed the attention into an appearance on 'The Late Show' with Stephen Colbert. Hochul is pursuing options to enable New York to redraw its lines.
'The fact is that collectively we're just tired of playing by the rules,' said John Anzalone, a Democratic pollster who works with Democrats across the country. 'This is a 'fuck you, we're going to match your scorched earth with our scorched earth.''
Even a successful remapping of California may not be enough for Democrats to outdraw Republicans nationally. But Democrats have limited options for scrounging new seats — and in a tit-for-tat redrawing battle with Republicans involving multiple states, California could be the largest prize for Democrats. The party is hurriedly contemplating a map that could yield five new blue districts. State leaders have signaled they're prepared to move fast, with the Legislature poised to approve new lines soon after their return from recess in mid-August so the plan can be approved by voters in a Nov. 4 special election.
'Other Democratic governors could talk about countering the Republican offensive. But he's probably got three, four or five seats he can add,' said Scott Drexel, a Bay Area-based donor adviser. 'It's not bluster … He's just naturally risen to the top.'
That would put the state, and Newsom, at the heart of a warp-speed, costly fight that will dominate the national political conversation. The special election gives the governor a campaign to run, allowing him to raise a ton of money while building his profile with donors and party activists.
'If he counters the Texas power grab by nullifying or perhaps even exceeding the number of seats that they steal in the Lone Star State, he would be an instant national hero to Democrats,' said Garry South, a veteran Democratic strategist based in California. 'There's just no doubt about it.'
He added, 'Governors do a lot of things in their own states that they can brag about if they run for president. … But very few of those successes that they tout have almost instant national political implications. And this one does.'
Newsom's advisers are adamant that, as he plunges into this standoff with Texas Republicans and Trump, the governor is focused solely on winning back the House in 2026.
'Democrats winning a majority in Congress is the country's only hope for real check on Trump's lawlessness, but Trump and his MAGA supporters in Texas and elsewhere are trying to stop that before a single American has voted,' said Lindsey Cobia, Newsom's senior political adviser, in a statement. 'The stakes couldn't be higher — all Democrats and Americans who love our democracy need to be in this fight.'
Newsom has experience capitalizing on an unexpected, off-year election. A 2021 recall effort against him initially threatened to tap into voters' Covid-tinged frustration and oust him prematurely from office. But Newsom swiftly turned the campaign from a referendum on his governance to a national battle against MAGA Republicans. He emerged politically stronger, with more than 60 percent of voters opting to keep him in office.
'It gave him and Democrats throughout the state a chance to rally,' said Democratic strategist Paul Maslin, who worked on Democratic Gov. Gray Davis' failed bid to fend off a recall in 2003. (The Republican governor who took over after Davis was ousted, Arnold Schwarzenegger, is ready to fight Newsom's plan).
The redistricting battle now could be 'the recall on steroids,' as one Newsom strategist put it.
The playbook will be much the same; Democrats are planning to frame the campaign as a referendum on Trump, who is deeply unpopular in California. Early polling on the ballot measure shows a bare majority of voters — 52 percent — initially support new congressional maps, but the initiative's prospects improve significantly after voters hear anti-Trump messaging and retreat to their partisan corners.
'He's not going to lose that,' predicted former South Carolina Democratic Gov. Jim Hodges, who praised Newsom and other blue state Democratic governors' response to the Texas mid-decade redistricting moves. 'This is shooting fish in a barrel. … People's anger over what they do [in Texas] is going to lead them to say, 'All's fair in love and war.''
Newsom's popularity in California has fluctuated over the years. A mental health care ballot measure he championed in March 2024 barely eked out a win, surprising many observers with its narrow margin of victory. He was not an especially sought-after surrogate in the state's most competitive House races last cycle.
A Public Policy Institute of California poll found Newsom's approval rating was underwater in late May, with just 44 percent of respondents viewing him favorably. But his forceful response to Trump's immigration crackdown in Los Angeles this summer resulted in some positive movement in his polls.
Steve Hilton, a Republican running to succeed Newsom as California governor in 2026, predicted Newsom would use the redistricting effort as a launchpad for his broader ambitions.
'It's clearly for Gavin Newsom a political game where he thinks it's going to help him position himself as the great antagonist to President Trump,' said the former Fox News host, who has threatened a lawsuit to block California's redistricting effort.
But people close to Newsom insist the initiative would be an all-hands effort, and top California Democrats in Washington say they want to see the responsibility shared.
Rep. Zoe Lofgren, the chair of the California delegation, said the behind-the-scenes work to chart out California's response to Texas has involved a large cast of characters, including Rep. Pete Aguilar, the third-ranking Democrat in the House, dozens of Democratic representatives from California, legislative leaders in Sacramento and their respective caucuses, as well as Newsom.
She predicted a ballot measure campaign, if it comes to that, will not be run by any single leader.
'It will be a team effort,' Lofgren said.
As for boosting Newsom's 2028 prospects, Drexel, the donor adviser, said he has not heard of any donors changing their opinion of him simply because of his handling of redistricting.
'If you really think Gavin's the guy, this probably solidified that for you a little bit,' he said. 'If you were a little bit unsure, you're probably still unsure. He's being Gavin, and I think there's still a long runway to show whether or not that translates to a mid-summer 2028 conversation.'
Pete Giangreco, a longtime Democratic consultant based in the Midwest, similarly doubted that voters and donors would flock to Newsom in three years simply for forcefully countering a partisan move by Texas Republicans.
But he said the political calculus for Newsom is clear.
'The real question is, what if he didn't even try? That would be fatal,' he said. 'He's got nothing to lose doing this and everything to gain.'